A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Colorado Rockies

by David Fung on Apr 2, 2025 9:01 AM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

29th in the series, we look at the Colorado Rockies. We have a team ranked 13th overall by John Sickels with 2 A-rated prospects, and 7 B-rated prospects. Their system is ranked similar in all three rankings we looked at; 14th in Kevin Goldstein rankings and 13th in Keith Law's 2012 organizational rankings. Law system slightly underrated:

This is an underrated system, maybe even here by me. I like systems in which the prospects in the No. 8-12 range are just as interesting (if not as high-upside or high-probability) as the prospects in the No. 1-4 range, and the Rockies' lack of a complex-league team can make some of their youngest prospects look less advanced than they are when they jump right to the Pioneer League.

In a division now lead by the Giants and Diamondbacks, can the Rockies, with their strong offense make a push and open their window to win the NL West?

Last year's Rockies team won an underwhelming 73 games, but looking at a few projection systems for this season, they should be more optimistic. Last week, Jason Brannon from Baseball Nation compiled projected 2012 standings from PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus), Marcel (Tom Tango), CAIRO (Replacement Level Yankees Weblog), and Clay Davenport. Here's how the compiled projections sees the NL West:

San Francisco 85
Arizona 84
Colorado 83
Los Angeles 77
San Diego 76

It's very exciting to see them in the thick of it, and if indeed the race is this tight, we have a very very exciting September to come. Here's what the Rockies roster projects to be in 2012:

*New acquisition, Current roster info from MLB Depth Charts

Starting Lineup
1 CF Dexter Fowler
2 2B Marco Scutaro*
3 LF Carlos Gonzalez
4 SS Troy Tulowitzki
5 1B Todd Helton
6 RF Michael Cuddyer*
7 C Ramon Hernandez*
8 3B Jordan Pacheco

Bench
C Wilin Rosario
1B Jason Giambi
1B/OF Tyler Colvin*
IF Jonathan Herrera
IF Chris Nelson
IF/OF Eric Young, Jr.

Starting Rotation
1 RHP Jeremy Guthrie*
2 LHP Jamie Moyer*
3 RHP Jhoulys Chacin
4 RHP Juan Nicasio
5 LHP Drew Pomeranz (Projected to join rotation as fifth starter 4/15)

Bullpen
CL RHP Rafael Betancourt
SU LHP Rex Brothers
SU RHP Matt Belisle
MID LHP Matt Reynolds
MID RHP Josh Roenicke
MID LHP Josh Outman
LR RHP Esmil Rogers

Projected Disabled List
LHP Jorge De La Rosa + underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2011

A quick look at their lineup shows that the bulk of it is locked up for years to come, especially LF Carlos Gonzalez, SS Troy Tulowitzki, and newcomer RF Michael Cuddyer.

They recently cleared the path for future 3B Nolan Arenado (I'm watching you for keeper reasons) and have their other top prospect P Drew Pomeranz coming up around April 15th to make his first start. Next season, they have C Wilin Rosario and OF Tim Wheeler coming to the big league club.

The hope for this season, as Jonah Keri noted in his Rockies preview, P Jhoulys Chacin keeps his strikeout rate high:

Chacin. That strikeout/ground ball combination is potentially lethal. Just a question of if the drop of more than 2 strikeouts per 9 innings last year was an aberration, or the start of an unhealthy trend.

Similar to what I said in my Dodgers piece, the Rockies have a daunting task at hand with the Giants and newly revived Diamondbacks in the same division. If their pitching clicks, they can be a sneaky in this very close division. The window for the Rockies is open again and should stay open for at least through 2014.

Check out FUNGraphs.info or Follow @cobradave

Tweet Comment 9 comments | Add comment | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Read More: Jamie Moyer (P - COL), Ramon Hernandez (C - COL), Jeremy Guthrie (P - COL), Marco Scutaro (2B - COL), Todd Helton (1B - COL), Troy Tulowitzki (SS - COL), Jason Giambi (1B - COL), Michael Cuddyer (RF - COL), Carlos Gonzalez (LF - COL), Jhoulys Chacin (P - COL), Wilin Rosario (C - COL), Jordan Pacheco (3B - COL), Tim Wheeler (CF - COL), Drew Pomeranz (P - COL), Nolan Arenado (3B - COL), Colorado Rockies

Comments

Thank you for this review.

It makes my optimism for this season seem less homerish.

THE Worst
La Violencia -- Chuck Norris' worst nightmare.
Follow @nabrahamson

by Thnikkaman on Apr 2, 2025 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

I like how all of the pitching prospects have a similar ETA for the majors (and it’s also missing Alex White, so there’s another name). Hopefully a couple of these guys will stick and fill out the rotation behind Pomeranz, Nicasio, and Chacin.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Apr 2, 2025 9:57 AM EDT reply actions

Plenty of blue and copper on that chart.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter

by Muzia on Apr 2, 2025 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

I’d say it’s hue is more ‘antique brass’.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Apr 2, 2025 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

For me they key to Chacin will be limiting walks rather than K/9%

his minors numbers 2.7BB/9 7.9K/9 with a GB rate over 60% point to Chacin’s path to Acehood being farther down Brandon Webb lane than up Roger Clemens way.

If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave BarryYou can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver

by TomCat009 on Apr 2, 2025 10:33 AM EDT reply actions