Projections
Projecting Kris Bryant
Coverage of the Kris Bryant Call-up Extravaganza continues with a look at his various projections.
Ben Revere: Super slugger
Steamer projections say the Phillies center fielder will improve his career longball total by 150% this season. Here's the exact times, places and games in which he'll do it. You heard it here first, folks.
Mediating projections, Part IV: A.J. Pollock
Does the Diamondbacks' outfielder stand any chance of repeating his magnificent 2014 season? Let's dive on in.
How much worse are the Royals without Shields?
They Royals lost their ace to free agency this offseason. How much worse will they be in 2014?
Mediating projections, Part III: Lucas Duda
The New York slugger had a banner year in 2014. Will he continue flying high in 2015, or will regression claim another victim? Let's look a little closer.
Mediating projections, Part II: T.J. House
2014 saw the Cleveland southpaw post solid numbers. Will 2015 bring more of the same, or a complete meltdown? We'll find out.
How much worse did the Tigers' rotation get?
Losing Max Scherzer would be a blow to any team, but how much of a blow is it to the Tigers?
Mookie Betts vs. Kris Bryant
Today, we're comparing the potential career trajectories of Mookie Betts & Kris Bryant yields interesting results, as their skillsets are vastly different.
Mediating projections, Part I: Julio Teheran
After a 2014 breakout (of sorts), where does the Atlanta right-hander go from here? Let's find out.
JAVIER prospect comp system for pitchers
Minor league prospect comparison system JAVIER finally takes on pitchers.
JAVIER Prospect Comps: Update and Improvements
An update to the JAVIER minor league comparison system, including 2014 stats and multiple improvements.
Tracking Playoff Odds Across the Season
Playoff odds projections are a great tool for assessing a team's chances of making the playoffs. Here we look at how they have fluctuated across the season.
The Shift Episode 9: Projections and prospects
Everyone loves prospects. It's just science. Chris St. John developed a system to project them. The system is named after a prospect. Because everyone loves prospects.
JAVIER: Prospect career analysis
Third in a three-part series on prospect analysis, which contains an interactive visualization to find what a hitter's statistics in the minor leagues tell us about his probability of success in the majors.
JAVIER: Analyzing prospects by age and level
The second in a three-part series on prospect analysis. This contains an interactive visualization to find what a hitter's statistics in the minor leagues tell us about his probability of success in the majors.
JAVIER: Introducing a prospect evaluation system
An introduction to the JAVIER prospect evaluation system.
Oliver projections worth revisiting: Part 1
Kevin Kiermaier isn't the only player who had an unexpected projection at the beginning of this season. Let's take a dive into some better-known players with surprising WAR projections from FanGraphs' modeling of the Oliver projection system.
Kevin Kiermaier and Oliver
Sometimes, things come as a complete surprise to all. Sometimes, they come as a complete surprise to all but a few. Kevin Kiermaier is one of those things.
Projecting 2014 records
Everyone has their own projection system to determine records, so of course I throw my version into the ring.
A potentially useful projection system
Projection systems are often (rightfully) conservative when projecting individual player seasons. What if we focused on the distribution?
2014 Detroit Tigers: Lineup Efficiency
A projection of the most efficient starting lineup for the perennially offseason-active Detroit Tigers through analysis of the projected starting eight's offensive production capabilities adjusted according to potential slotting in the batting order.
Finding value in Paul Maholm
Being left off the Atlanta Braves' postseason roster, Paul Maholm ended 2013 on a rough note. However, that doesn't mean that the veteran southpaw doesn't have any value.
2014 Texas Rangers: Lineup Efficiency
A projection of the most efficient starting lineup for the offseason-prodigal Texas Rangers through analysis of the projected starting eight's offensive production capabilities adjusted according to potential slotting in the batting order.
2014 Seattle Mariners: Lineup Efficiency
A projection of the 2014 Seattle Mariners most efficient starting lineup through analysis of adjusted offensive production capabilities by batting order slotting.
Chris Davis' Quest for the Single Season HR Record
See where we predict Chris Davis will end up in 2013. See what the Texas Rangers are missing, and what the can enjoy in the second half.
2013's Most Unexpected...So Far
With projection being an inexact science, we occasionally see players exceeding or falling short of their projections. Who has exceeded their supposed level the most so far in 2013?
MLB Draft, Predictions, Projections, & Confidence
We love to predict the future pf players recently drafted, but with how much confidence, subjectivity, and personal interest do we make those forecasts. Moreover, do we need more patience when it comes to the expectations we place on recent draftees?
Predicting WAR Totals for April's Biggest Stars
We take a look at six of April's hottest stars, and simulate their full season outputs one-thousand times through a method we call bootstrapping, to arrive at a prediction for where their WAR totals will end up at the end of the year!
The Most Unpredictable Teams in Baseball
We know what the consensus predictions are for the 2012 MLB season. But which teams' projections are the hardest to pin down?