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Projections

The race for the AL Central crown is defying expectations

Despite a large advantage on paper, Cleveland isn’t running away with the division.

What’s wrong with Aledmys Diaz?

The 2016 breakout star hasn’t been able to produce at the same level in 2017. What’s behind his slump, and how likely is a rebound?

How valuable is Matt Carpenter, first baseman?

The Cardinals think Matt Carpenter’s blend of plate discipline and newfound power makes him a good fit for 1B; could they be mistaken?

Introducing hard-hit rate batting average

Introducing—and immediately regretting—hard-hit rate batting average.

Young teams are underrated by projection systems

Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna have propelled the Miami Marlins to a season that has been better than expected. Does this testify to a larger pattern?

The Value of Competitive Balance Round A Draft Picks

As the only draft picks that can be traded, there’s a lot of hidden value in this set of picks.

Biggest trade deadline upgrades by position

Every contending team has flaws, so let's try to find the best fixes possible.

The AL West doesn't look like we thought it would

The AL West is an unpredictable mess, and a lot of fun as a result.

When the projections aren't convinced

Some players are in the midst of very hot or very cold starts, and yet their projections aren't budging. What can we learn from that, about the players and the projection systems?

The value of Jose Bautista's future

How much is Jose Bautista's future worth? Probably more than you think...

Where is Ortiz's place on the all-time HR list?

David Ortiz has the opportunity to pass some all-time greats on the all-time home run list during his farewell season. How many of them are within his reach and who isn't?

Dustin Pedroia is poised for a comeback

The diminutive Red Sox second basemen had a lackluster 2014 and an abridged 2015, but 2016 is set up to be a return to form.

Where do projection systems disagree?

For most players, ZiPS and Steamer have the same opinion. But what happens when they butt heads?

Making sense of the Rays projections

Depending on who you ask, the Rays might look like a division-winner and postseason threat, or a mediocre team outclassed by the rest of the AL East.

A guide to the projection systems

It's that time of year again! No, not spring training; projection season. Here's a guide to the various flavors, and what makes them all special.

Ramirez, Sandoval projections see big rebound

Maybe Dave Dombrowski brings magic with him.

2015's projection systems in review, part two

Comparing the performance of the major projection systems in 2015, finishing with the pitchers. Spoiler: Predicting baseball remains hard.

Mediating projections, Part V: Justin Turner

The Dodgers' utility man carried his 2014 breakout over into 2015. Can he make it a three-peat in 2016?

2015's projection systems in review, part one

Comparing the performance of the major projection systems in 2015, starting with the batters. Spoiler: Predicting baseball is hard.

Mediating projections, Part IV: Rajai Davis

Cleveland inked the speedy, aging outfielder to a one-year contract. How will he perform under it?

Mediating projections, Part III: Leonys Martin

Seattle hopes that its new center fielder can regain his 2013-14 form. What should we expect from him in 2016?

Mediating projections, Part II: CC Sabathia

To this point, the Yankees southpaw hasn't aged well. What will his likely contract year bring?

The '16 Phillies rotation will be interesting

Comprised of many small question marks, the Phillies staff looks like a huge unknown heading into 2016.

Mediating projections, Part I: Jerad Eickhoff

The Philadelphia righty burst on to the scene in 2015 after a midseason change of scenery. What will 2016 bring? Let's find out.

Nolan Arenado's projected arbitration value is high

Can Nolan Arenado really make over $6.5 million as a super-two? Let's consider the context by using player comparisons.

Steamer Projections and the Royals

They Royals had better win this season, because if Steamer projections for 2016 hold true, regression is on the way.

Cluster and performance luck 2015: An update

The season is about 75% complete, which means it's a good time to revisit which teams have been particularly lucky or unlucky and how.

Distribution, performance, and luck

There's more than one way to be lucky in baseball. What teams have been hurt or helped the most, and how?

Thorsday: Syndergaard in the Show

The one they call Thor will face the Cubs on Tuesday. How will he do?

2015 Diamond Dollars: Hamels Trade Machine

Re-publishing a writeup for the 2015 Diamond Dollars Case Competition, which was to work on trades for Cole Hamels.

Rolling out a new projection system

After introducing the comparison and likeness prospect system a couple months ago, CAL has taken the next step: turning it into a projection system.

Projecting Kris Bryant

Coverage of the Kris Bryant Call-up Extravaganza continues with a look at his various projections.

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