Milwaukee Brewers: Fading fast, but will it last?

The Brewers are mired in a horrendous streak. How did they get there, and what are the chances they can still make the playoffs?

The Brewers were flying high after their game on August 19th in the glow of a 6-1 win over the Blue Jays which extended their winning streak to five, three of which had been on the road against the Dodgers. Their 71-55 record tied them for the most wins in the NL, and they were 2.5 games up on the Cardinals in the standings. Unfortunately, August 20th dawned, and the Brewers went on a 3-15 skid through Monday, September 8th and as of this writing are on the outside looking in for making the playoffs. What happened to what had been such a promising season, and what are the chances they can still make the playoffs?

The Brewers' batting was average in this stretch, but the pitching was less than stellar, with a 5.61 ERA. They had the usual aches and pains every team has at this point in the season but no major injuries. This table shows how every team has performed since August 20th (entering Wednesday):

Team	W	L	R	BR	BRs	BRs%	RA	oBR	oBRs	oBRs%
Angels	14	5	106	478	86	18.0%	62	399	44	11.0%
Tigers	12	9	117	591	98	16.6%	105	531	92	17.3%
Cardinals	12	7	85	510	71	13.9%	70	398	47	11.8%
Giants	12	6	112	503	90	17.9%	81	316	57	18.0%
Orioles	12	7	88	400	56	14.0%	65	421	50	11.9%
Dodgers	11	6	77	410	58	14.1%	58	348	42	12.1%
Indians	11	7	63	387	52	13.4%	69	470	51	10.9%
Phillies	11	6	82	378	63	16.7%	60	398	45	11.3%
Pirates	11	6	75	358	50	14.0%	46	355	38	10.7%
Mariners	11	7	75	349	55	15.8%	67	405	49	12.1%
Mets	10	7	83	399	60	15.0%	75	381	58	15.2%
Nationals	10	8	79	392	49	12.5%	72	352	49	13.9%
Astros	10	8	62	382	47	12.3%	62	392	54	13.8%
Yankees	10	8	70	363	53	14.6%	56	317	39	12.3%
Rockies	10	8	78	351	52	14.8%	79	430	64	14.9%
Blue Jays	10	7	77	330	55	16.7%	65	395	52	13.2%
Cubs	9	10	73	377	48	12.7%	89	467	71	15.2%
Royals	9	8	54	341	43	12.6%	68	378	62	16.4%
Rays	8	11	57	431	49	11.4%	70	363	49	13.5%
Braves	8	10	48	394	37	9.4%	57	363	50	13.8%
Padres	8	11	46	383	36	9.4%	78	456	60	13.2%
Red Sox	7	12	74	444	58	13.1%	92	463	76	16.4%
Marlins	7	10	83	428	68	15.9%	72	431	57	13.2%
Twins	6	13	109	538	94	17.5%	122	548	97	17.7%
Athletics	6	12	61	379	47	12.4%	74	348	48	13.8%
Rangers	6	12	60	376	52	13.8%	72	351	50	14.2%
Diamondbacks	6	11	51	371	43	11.6%	53	339	38	11.2%
Reds	6	12	51	341	38	11.1%	82	432	57	13.2%
White Sox	5	12	58	353	41	11.6%	78	392	63	16.1%
Brewers	3	15	56	374	45	12.0%	111	472	85	18.0%

BR=base runners BRs=base runners scored

Scoring almost fifty runs fewer than your opponents is one way to lose a lot of games, and the reason for this disparity can be seen in the number of base runners. Milwaukee was near the bottom in the number of base runners and near the "top" in the number of base runners allowed. On average around 14 percent of base runners score, and this table breaks it down by base state for 2014:

Bases	Pct
1--	5.1%
-2-	15.0%
--3	32.0%
12-	10.9%
1-3	22.0%
-23	23.8%
123	21.9%

Runners score more often the closer they are to home, to the surprise of absolutely no one. The Brewers weren't getting on base, and their opponents reached base 100 times more than they did and scored in a greater percentage of opportunities. That's one way to go 3-15.

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Luckily for the Brewers, no one else in the National League appears to want the fifth playoff spot. As of this writing (entering Wednesday's action) it will take around 84 wins (the link is updated daily) to secure the final spot, meaning the Brewers have to go 10-7 in their last 17 games, and there's nothing structural to preclude them from finishing strong.

Their core of Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun is healthy, as are pitchers Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo. Only six of their remaining games are against opponents with records better than .500, three road games each against the Cardinals and Pirates.

Every team runs into a rough stretch at some time in the season, sometimes even near the end. The 2005 White Sox had to fend off a very hot Indians team until the very end and were lights-out in the postseason on their way to winning the World Series. Conversely, the 2011 Red Sox famously went on a spectacular slide near this point of the season that certainly cost them a playoff spot and quite possibly Adrian Gonzalez the MVP award.

In Tuesday's game, Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez had consecutive at-bats with the bases loaded in which they grounded into a forceout (to former Brewer Casey McGehee, as it happened):

By losing this game they ran their streak to 3-16, as well as losing two in a row to the Marlins. It's not over for the Brewers, but if they can't turn things around and play like they were during the first 120 games of the season, these two at-bats might end up being the poster of the season -- a very good team that came up short when it mattered most. Many factors are in the Brewers' favor on paper -- their job is to turn paper probabilities into tangible results.

. . .

All data from Baseball-Reference

Scott Lindholm lives in Davenport, IA. Follow him on Twitter @ScottLindholm.