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I say the same Yogi Berra / Niels Bohr quote about prediction any time I write about prediction. And I figure why ruin such consistency? So here it is again anyways.
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
-Niels Bohr, Nobel Laureate in Physics
-Yogi Berra, MVP and All-Star Aphorist
There's been a lot of discussion about projection systems lately. Managing Editor Bryan Grosnick has recently detailed the tale of Kevin Kiermaier and looked at high projections in the Oliver system.
Regardless of the projection system, some players will exceed their projection, some will fall short. Last year, Chris Davis exceeded expectations the most, while Jeff Keppinger fell short the most. As with last year, we're working with Dan Szymborski's (I got the name right this year) ZiPS projection system, but we're adding another wrinkle. FanGraphs has a Fans Scouting Report where fans can try to project how they think players will do in the coming year. Just to prove that Niels / Yogi were right, we're going to show how the fans do.
The table below shows the 166 qualified players, along with their projected wOBA by the Fans and by ZiPS. Then, there's the probability that we'd see a season better than the one they're having given that the projection system is correct. The lower this probability, the more they've exceeded expectations. Data is current through June 22nd.
Player | Season wOBA | ZiPS wOBA | ZiPS P(Better Season) | Fans wOBA | Fans P(Better Season) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Brantley | 0.399 | 0.319 | 0.0025 | 0.333 | 0.011 |
Victor Martinez | 0.411 | 0.338 | 0.0077 | 0.349 | 0.0199 |
Troy Tulowitzki | 0.467 | 0.388 | 0.0095 | 0.396 | 0.0172 |
Seth Smith | 0.399 | 0.321 | 0.0127 | NA | NA |
Brian Dozier | 0.359 | 0.3 | 0.0172 | 0.327 | 0.1281 |
Jonathan Lucroy | 0.401 | 0.337 | 0.0206 | 0.349 | 0.0457 |
Carlos Gomez | 0.399 | 0.335 | 0.0265 | 0.338 | 0.0281 |
Nelson Cruz | 0.407 | 0.343 | 0.0288 | 0.343 | 0.0244 |
Jose Altuve | 0.361 | 0.311 | 0.0315 | 0.315 | 0.0398 |
Dee Gordon | 0.323 | 0.277 | 0.0329 | NA | NA |
Adam LaRoche | 0.393 | 0.329 | 0.0382 | 0.341 | 0.0666 |
Michael Morse | 0.376 | 0.318 | 0.0407 | 0.342 | 0.158 |
Brandon Crawford | 0.34 | 0.291 | 0.0481 | 0.301 | 0.094 |
Kurt Suzuki | 0.354 | 0.301 | 0.0513 | NA | NA |
Hunter Pence | 0.374 | 0.328 | 0.0601 | 0.351 | 0.225 |
Charlie Blackmon | 0.365 | 0.32 | 0.0617 | NA | NA |
Scooter Gennett | 0.351 | 0.304 | 0.0666 | 0.32 | 0.1638 |
Alcides Escobar | 0.319 | 0.278 | 0.0734 | 0.287 | 0.1187 |
Todd Frazier | 0.375 | 0.331 | 0.0793 | 0.343 | 0.1489 |
Yasiel Puig | 0.409 | 0.368 | 0.0992 | 0.375 | 0.137 |
Anthony Rizzo | 0.391 | 0.352 | 0.1094 | 0.368 | 0.2339 |
Alexei Ramirez | 0.331 | 0.299 | 0.1142 | 0.306 | 0.1878 |
Luis Valbuena | 0.354 | 0.314 | 0.1155 | 0.305 | 0.0681 |
Chris Owings | 0.342 | 0.304 | 0.1206 | 0.323 | 0.2771 |
Andrew McCutchen | 0.412 | 0.377 | 0.1225 | 0.397 | 0.3081 |
Yangervis Solarte | 0.334 | 0.3 | 0.1266 | NA | NA |
Casey McGehee | 0.341 | 0.311 | 0.1426 | NA | NA |
Starlin Castro | 0.354 | 0.323 | 0.1458 | 0.322 | 0.1291 |
Alex Rios | 0.351 | 0.32 | 0.1485 | 0.332 | 0.2659 |
Brandon Moss | 0.378 | 0.344 | 0.1575 | 0.363 | 0.3217 |
Melky Cabrera | 0.36 | 0.332 | 0.1625 | 0.336 | 0.2019 |
Angel Pagan | 0.34 | 0.311 | 0.165 | 0.331 | 0.3929 |
Coco Crisp | 0.359 | 0.328 | 0.1771 | 0.325 | 0.1535 |
Alex Gordon | 0.368 | 0.341 | 0.1854 | 0.36 | 0.3984 |
Dexter Fowler | 0.355 | 0.33 | 0.1919 | 0.354 | 0.4823 |
Neil Walker | 0.357 | 0.33 | 0.2004 | 0.348 | 0.3914 |
Josh Donaldson | 0.356 | 0.332 | 0.2079 | 0.362 | 0.5871 |
Paul Goldschmidt | 0.403 | 0.379 | 0.22 | 0.402 | 0.4767 |
Daniel Murphy | 0.339 | 0.318 | 0.2235 | 0.327 | 0.3231 |
Brett Gardner | 0.342 | 0.321 | 0.228 | 0.344 | 0.5252 |
Adam Dunn | 0.355 | 0.329 | 0.2297 | 0.344 | 0.3609 |
Erick Aybar | 0.327 | 0.307 | 0.2362 | 0.31 | 0.2707 |
Jose Bautista | 0.418 | 0.395 | 0.2367 | 0.387 | 0.1591 |
Giancarlo Stanton | 0.411 | 0.388 | 0.2384 | 0.401 | 0.3732 |
Edwin Encarnacion | 0.405 | 0.385 | 0.2638 | 0.397 | 0.4039 |
George Springer | 0.355 | 0.334 | 0.2651 | 0.353 | 0.4612 |
Anthony Rendon | 0.353 | 0.337 | 0.2797 | 0.353 | 0.4903 |
Justin Morneau | 0.369 | 0.352 | 0.2945 | 0.339 | 0.1693 |
Lucas Duda | 0.352 | 0.334 | 0.2954 | 0.343 | 0.3871 |
Matt Adams | 0.357 | 0.338 | 0.3045 | 0.353 | 0.4384 |
Marcell Ozuna | 0.332 | 0.319 | 0.3262 | 0.322 | 0.3671 |
Justin Upton | 0.366 | 0.351 | 0.3275 | 0.375 | 0.5968 |
Kyle Seager | 0.341 | 0.329 | 0.3276 | 0.35 | 0.5996 |
Freddie Freeman | 0.383 | 0.37 | 0.3341 | 0.381 | 0.4528 |
Nick Markakis | 0.337 | 0.326 | 0.3341 | 0.335 | 0.47 |
Mike Trout | 0.42 | 0.408 | 0.3421 | 0.407 | 0.3334 |
Denard Span | 0.317 | 0.307 | 0.3484 | 0.312 | 0.4134 |
Carlos Ruiz | 0.344 | 0.332 | 0.3512 | 0.324 | 0.247 |
Chase Utley | 0.356 | 0.345 | 0.3514 | 0.363 | 0.5818 |
Salvador Perez | 0.341 | 0.329 | 0.3535 | 0.348 | 0.5727 |
Yoenis Cespedes | 0.353 | 0.341 | 0.3562 | 0.355 | 0.5186 |
Jose Abreu | 0.388 | 0.377 | 0.3757 | 0.358 | 0.1873 |
Miguel Montero | 0.338 | 0.329 | 0.3785 | 0.343 | 0.5621 |
Billy Hamilton | 0.31 | 0.303 | 0.3935 | 0.289 | 0.2257 |
Brian Roberts | 0.304 | 0.296 | 0.3935 | 0.285 | 0.2645 |
Adeiny Hechavarria | 0.28 | 0.273 | 0.3948 | 0.285 | 0.5585 |
Jimmy Rollins | 0.32 | 0.312 | 0.3984 | 0.308 | 0.3303 |
Danny Espinosa | 0.295 | 0.288 | 0.4034 | 0.293 | 0.4713 |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.329 | 0.323 | 0.4046 | 0.329 | 0.4937 |
Jhonny Peralta | 0.329 | 0.323 | 0.4077 | 0.334 | 0.5581 |
Christian Yelich | 0.337 | 0.33 | 0.4092 | 0.348 | 0.6323 |
Adam Eaton | 0.317 | 0.311 | 0.4128 | 0.347 | 0.8246 |
Mike Napoli | 0.364 | 0.357 | 0.415 | 0.368 | 0.5437 |
Marlon Byrd | 0.343 | 0.337 | 0.4164 | 0.322 | 0.2402 |
Junior Lake | 0.304 | 0.298 | 0.4183 | 0.327 | 0.7404 |
Ian Kinsler | 0.344 | 0.339 | 0.4262 | 0.334 | 0.3521 |
James Loney | 0.316 | 0.312 | 0.4396 | 0.321 | 0.567 |
Khris Davis | 0.349 | 0.344 | 0.4405 | 0.356 | 0.5856 |
Garrett Jones | 0.327 | 0.323 | 0.4511 | 0.314 | 0.3432 |
Trevor Plouffe | 0.32 | 0.316 | 0.4518 | 0.327 | 0.5748 |
Curtis Granderson | 0.339 | 0.336 | 0.4544 | 0.345 | 0.566 |
Michael Bourn | 0.3 | 0.298 | 0.4673 | 0.317 | 0.7139 |
Robinson Cano | 0.359 | 0.357 | 0.468 | 0.387 | 0.8089 |
Howie Kendrick | 0.321 | 0.32 | 0.4853 | 0.331 | 0.6273 |
Matt Carpenter | 0.339 | 0.338 | 0.4864 | 0.362 | 0.7895 |
Hanley Ramirez | 0.363 | 0.363 | 0.4903 | 0.367 | 0.5494 |
Xander Bogaerts | 0.335 | 0.335 | 0.4946 | 0.36 | 0.7914 |
Adam Jones | 0.344 | 0.345 | 0.5105 | 0.359 | 0.6821 |
Elvis Andrus | 0.301 | 0.303 | 0.5206 | 0.316 | 0.7134 |
Emilio Bonifacio | 0.287 | 0.29 | 0.5266 | 0.288 | 0.5163 |
Leonys Martin | 0.311 | 0.315 | 0.5448 | 0.326 | 0.6823 |
Adrian Beltre | 0.363 | 0.367 | 0.5453 | 0.378 | 0.6572 |
David Murphy | 0.314 | 0.32 | 0.5616 | NA | NA |
Matt Dominguez | 0.298 | 0.303 | 0.5623 | 0.317 | 0.7327 |
Yunel Escobar | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.5682 | 0.31 | 0.7223 |
Desmond Jennings | 0.316 | 0.322 | 0.5753 | 0.337 | 0.757 |
Matt Kemp | 0.347 | 0.356 | 0.5996 | 0.368 | 0.7201 |
Starling Marte | 0.318 | 0.327 | 0.6094 | 0.345 | 0.8071 |
Torii Hunter | 0.319 | 0.33 | 0.6103 | 0.335 | 0.6906 |
Yan Gomes | 0.317 | 0.328 | 0.6197 | 0.327 | 0.6162 |
Brandon Phillips | 0.308 | 0.318 | 0.6244 | 0.324 | 0.7025 |
Yadier Molina | 0.33 | 0.341 | 0.6259 | 0.357 | 0.8097 |
Ryan Howard | 0.323 | 0.334 | 0.6302 | 0.344 | 0.7421 |
Matt Joyce | 0.328 | 0.34 | 0.6306 | 0.343 | 0.6609 |
J.J. Hardy | 0.308 | 0.32 | 0.644 | 0.317 | 0.604 |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.33 | 0.344 | 0.6718 | 0.347 | 0.7211 |
Ian Desmond | 0.316 | 0.329 | 0.6725 | 0.352 | 0.8715 |
Omar Infante | 0.289 | 0.304 | 0.6843 | 0.312 | 0.753 |
Nick Castellanos | 0.312 | 0.33 | 0.7006 | 0.325 | 0.653 |
Derek Jeter | 0.289 | 0.304 | 0.7011 | 0.321 | 0.8692 |
Alberto Callaspo | 0.297 | 0.314 | 0.7072 | 0.31 | 0.6695 |
Adrian Gonzalez | 0.331 | 0.348 | 0.712 | 0.356 | 0.7814 |
Brett Lawrie | 0.317 | 0.335 | 0.7123 | 0.351 | 0.8588 |
Norichika Aoki | 0.295 | 0.311 | 0.7129 | 0.333 | 0.9114 |
DJ LeMahieu | 0.286 | 0.305 | 0.7396 | 0.306 | 0.7585 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 0.345 | 0.365 | 0.7432 | 0.385 | 0.9089 |
Dayan Viciedo | 0.302 | 0.324 | 0.7512 | 0.335 | 0.8452 |
Jayson Werth | 0.333 | 0.355 | 0.7585 | 0.377 | 0.9277 |
Pablo Sandoval | 0.321 | 0.344 | 0.7598 | 0.36 | 0.8896 |
Pedro Alvarez | 0.311 | 0.336 | 0.7658 | 0.344 | 0.8333 |
Ben Revere | 0.276 | 0.297 | 0.7695 | 0.311 | 0.904 |
Jason Heyward | 0.326 | 0.349 | 0.7734 | 0.367 | 0.9174 |
Miguel Cabrera | 0.4 | 0.427 | 0.7774 | 0.442 | 0.8858 |
Albert Pujols | 0.337 | 0.363 | 0.7806 | 0.377 | 0.9011 |
Ben Zobrist | 0.315 | 0.34 | 0.7814 | 0.343 | 0.8236 |
Andrelton Simmons | 0.286 | 0.31 | 0.7833 | 0.327 | 0.91 |
Dustin Ackley | 0.285 | 0.31 | 0.7857 | 0.331 | 0.9313 |
Martin Prado | 0.308 | 0.333 | 0.8003 | 0.334 | 0.8125 |
Jose Reyes | 0.311 | 0.338 | 0.8028 | 0.346 | 0.8682 |
Austin Jackson | 0.302 | 0.329 | 0.8065 | 0.354 | 0.9521 |
Dustin Pedroia | 0.32 | 0.344 | 0.8099 | 0.361 | 0.9295 |
Matt Holliday | 0.339 | 0.366 | 0.8101 | 0.378 | 0.9017 |
Gerardo Parra | 0.298 | 0.323 | 0.8149 | 0.318 | 0.7576 |
Carlos Santana | 0.336 | 0.365 | 0.8196 | 0.366 | 0.8273 |
Jonathan Schoop | 0.276 | 0.309 | 0.8363 | 0.318 | 0.8918 |
Chris Carter | 0.306 | 0.343 | 0.8377 | 0.352 | 0.9036 |
Jordy Mercer | 0.269 | 0.302 | 0.8411 | 0.339 | 0.9843 |
Jay Bruce | 0.317 | 0.356 | 0.8526 | 0.372 | 0.9288 |
Buster Posey | 0.332 | 0.367 | 0.8559 | 0.379 | 0.9284 |
Chris Johnson | 0.292 | 0.324 | 0.8561 | 0.336 | 0.9299 |
Zack Cozart | 0.264 | 0.298 | 0.8589 | 0.304 | 0.8996 |
Mark Reynolds | 0.317 | 0.356 | 0.86 | 0.324 | 0.5708 |
Justin Smoak | 0.288 | 0.325 | 0.8639 | 0.334 | 0.9108 |
Evan Longoria | 0.324 | 0.36 | 0.8764 | 0.377 | 0.9525 |
Alejandro De Aza | 0.28 | 0.318 | 0.8802 | 0.333 | 0.9512 |
Ryan Braun | 0.351 | 0.395 | 0.8807 | 0.393 | 0.8895 |
Jed Lowrie | 0.293 | 0.329 | 0.8879 | 0.336 | 0.9303 |
Aaron Hill | 0.298 | 0.338 | 0.9057 | 0.349 | 0.9518 |
Allen Craig | 0.308 | 0.348 | 0.9066 | 0.369 | 0.9752 |
Jackie Bradley Jr | 0.27 | 0.312 | 0.9081 | 0.337 | 0.9842 |
Brad Miller | 0.271 | 0.315 | 0.9117 | 0.342 | 0.9857 |
Jason Castro | 0.295 | 0.342 | 0.9228 | 0.348 | 0.9483 |
David Wright | 0.321 | 0.363 | 0.9244 | 0.39 | 0.9914 |
B.J. Upton | 0.27 | 0.315 | 0.9339 | 0.321 | 0.9542 |
Chris Davis | 0.326 | 0.383 | 0.9397 | 0.389 | 0.9557 |
Everth Cabrera | 0.252 | 0.293 | 0.9456 | 0.322 | 0.9969 |
Billy Butler | 0.305 | 0.357 | 0.9619 | 0.368 | 0.983 |
David Ortiz | 0.346 | 0.406 | 0.9644 | 0.402 | 0.9635 |
Jean Segura | 0.272 | 0.326 | 0.9675 | 0.325 | 0.9685 |
Brian McCann | 0.288 | 0.35 | 0.9691 | 0.353 | 0.9678 |
Nick Swisher | 0.273 | 0.335 | 0.9761 | 0.362 | 0.9967 |
Joe Mauer | 0.298 | 0.355 | 0.9764 | 0.395 | 0.9996 |
Yonder Alonso | 0.259 | 0.324 | 0.9817 | 0.354 | 0.9984 |
Nate Schierholtz | 0.255 | 0.334 | 0.9902 | 0.323 | 0.9816 |
Eric Hosmer | 0.286 | 0.357 | 0.9935 | 0.363 | 0.9963 |
Domonic Brown | 0.261 | 0.361 | 0.9986 | 0.354 | 0.9978 |
Michael Brantley definitely has surprised people, but there are plenty of familiar names at the top of the list in Victor Martinez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Carlos Gomez. Tulowitzki's season continues to impress. Consider that he was projected to have the seventh-highest wOBA on the year, and yet has had such an incredible year that his was the third-least likely season based on preseason projections.
On the other end of the spectrum, to say that Domonic Brown has had a tough season would be an understatement. Some thought he seemed primed for a potential breakthrough, but he hasn't been able to build off of his 2013 season. (As his owner in the BtBS Ottoneu League, I find this very unfortunate.) Joining him at the bottom are a former MVP in Joe Mauer and a quartet of All-Stars in Swisher, McCann, Ortiz, and Segura.
One final thing to consider in projections is whether they have a tendency to overshoot or undershoot as a general rule. A good projection system would be symmetric about 0.5 in terms of P (Better Season than Actual | Projections), as well as being mostly near 0.5. Below you'll see ZiPS has the symmetric property while the Fans ... well ... don't. As a general rule, fans are overestimating players by quite a bit. But even ZiPS has a hard time getting the projections dead on. Just a reminder that Niels / Yogi were right.
. . .
Data and projections courtesy of FanGraphs.
Stephen Loftus is an editor at Beyond The Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @stephen__loftus.