FanPost

New Sabermetric Stat: CIRE

Using this newly developed stat for pitchers, CIRE simply stands for "Context Independent Run Expectancy."

While Researching, I was shocked that I could not find a run expectancy stat other than RE24 or REW, which are both context dependent. Using CIRE, we can have it act like an adjusted ERA or FIP statistic. Rather than using context dependent stats which determine WHEN hits or base runners will occur, CIRE creates an average based on the NUMBER of them that occur, the assumption being pitchers do not generally control WHEN hits or walks happen, but more so the NUMBER of them that happen, on average. This would be context independent.

CIRE uses Bill James' runs created formula to determine this ERA like figure. Using hits, walks, AB's, and TB the pitcher has allowed, we get the opposing runs created(RC=(H+W)*TB/(AB+W)). This gives us a value, which then can be multiplied by the quotient of 9/IP to get a 9 inning average.

Unlike FIP, this does not account for an average defense, ballpark factors, or any of that other crazy stuff. CIRE simply uses a pitcher's statistics to independently determine, with neutral luck, the opposing runs created. This stat can also be used to determine how lucky or unlucky a pitcher is. I will use the 2019 Oakland Athletics Starting Pitching Rotation as an example of this stat. (OPC=Opposing Runs Created)

For context, I calculated the average league CIRE to be 4.77, so it is important to consider the average CIRE is .26 points higher than the league average ERA(4.51).

Mike Fiers(3.90 ERA)- ORC= (166+53)*279/(683+53)= 83.02

(9/184.2 IP)*83.02= 4.05 CIRE

Tanner Roark(4.35 ERA)- ORC= (180+51)*306/(655+51)= 100.12

(9/165.1 IP)*100.12= 5.45 CIRE

Chris Bassitt(3.81 ERA)- ORC= (125+47)*215/(545+47)= 62.47

(9/144 IP)*62.47= 3.90 CIRE

Brett Anderson(3.89 ERA)- ORC= (181+49)*278/(682+49)= 87.47

(9/176 IP)*87.47= 4.47 CIRE

Homer Bailey(4.30 ERA with A's in 13 games- for a smaller sample size)- ORC= (73+15)*114/(287+15)= 33.22

(9/73.1 IP)*33.22= 4.08 CIRE

Let me know what you think about this new stat!