Does Chris Young have a future?

Chris Young is weird, man. He's a 35-year-old junkballer with an injury record longer than Mark Prior's*, and he's accrued more than a thousand big-league innings with results much better than his peripherals. Continuing the latter trend, his 2014 season had something going for it that no other season did.

* - Not really, but, y'know, hyperbole.

First, though, some background. Drafted by the Pirates in 2000, he bounced around the minors for a few years before cracking the show with Texas in 2004. Over the next two campaigns, he compiled 201.0 innings, with a 94 ERA- and a 102 xFIP-; the latter figure made it appear that he'd allow more runs in the seasons to come.

Of course, appearances can deceive. Following a move to San Diego (in one of Jon Daniels's more ill-advised trades), Young broke out: Across 2006 and 2007, his 81 ERA- ranked 15th in the majors. Even more impressive, he posted that despite similarly-subpar peripherals — his 101 xFIP- for the Padres didn't differ much from his mark with the Rangers. For those 352.1 innings, he was on top of the world.

Then it all fell apart. Over the next six years, Young compiled a combined 337.1 innings, with a mediocre 104 ERA- and a hideous 124 xFIP-. With injuries and aging taking their toll, he didn't seem to be anything more than a guy with a decent history of overperformance. When Seattle inked him last March, no one expected much.

Then came the season itself, in which things got really weird. Always a fly ball pitcher, Young took that to the extreme last year: His 2014 fly ball rate of 58.7% beat those of every other qualifier since 2002. (Incidentally, his aforementioned 2006 and 2007 seasons occupy the second and third places, respectively, on that list.) Together with a plummeting strikeout rate and a walk rate that remained poor, this made him the worst pitcher since 2002 by park-adjusted xFIP.

But that's only half the story. Young's trend of out-pitching his xFIP also continued, to an unprecedented extent: Somehow, he had an above-average ERA. Yes, that's right — despite the worst peripherals in recent history, he allowed 67 earned runs in 165.0 innings, giving him an ERA 1% better than the major-league average.

That's incredibly uncommon, in case you didn't guess. (For the sake of comparison, we'll use FIP, since Young didn't have a lucky HR/FB% in 2014.) In the 144 years for which we have data, 6,042 qualifying pitcher seasons have had a better-than-average ERA. Of those, only three have had an FIP 30% worse than average:

#	Season	Name	Team	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
1	1884	Billy O'Brien	Apostles	1.80	2.77	85	149
2	2014	Chris Young	Mariners	3.65	5.02	99	136
3	1933	Sugar Cain	Athletics	4.25	5.42	98	130

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The last guy to do what Young just did was born before World War I. So, yeah, it was a weird season.

Can it happen again? Let's look to history. First, we'll get a sample of some similar campaigns. A roughly average ERA — within, say, 5% of league average — along with a decidedly below-average FIP — at least 20% worse than the league-wide mark — will work. Since 1871, those conditions have occurred 44 times; below, you'll see all of them, along with the following season:

Season	Name	IP	ERA-	FIP-	ERA	FIP	Season +1	IP	ERA-	FIP-	ERA	FIP
2014	Chris Young	165.0	99	136	3.65	5.02	2015	---	---	---	---	---
2014	Shelby Miller	183.0	104	125	3.74	4.54	2015	---	---	---	---	---
2012	Jason Vargas	217.1	101	121	3.85	4.69	2013	150.0	106	109	4.02	4.09
2010	Wade Davis	168.0	103	120	4.07	4.79	2011	184.0	115	121	4.45	4.67
2010	Randy Wolf	215.2	104	121	4.17	4.85	2011	212.1	95	110	3.69	4.29
2006	Kris Benson	183.0	105	123	4.82	5.59	2007	---	---	---	---	---
2004	Jose Lima	170.1	98	120	4.07	5.09	2005	168.2	156	128	6.99	5.71
2003	Jake Peavy	194.2	103	123	4.11	4.99	2004	166.1	57	77	2.27	3.14
2001	Dustin Hermanson	192.1	104	123	4.45	5.33	2002	22.0	171	101	7.77	4.51
1996	Pete Harnisch	194.2	103	121	4.21	5.05	1997	39.2	168	137	7.03	5.78
1994	Pat Mahomes	120.0	97	128	4.73	6.21	1995	94.2	132	131	6.37	6.26
1992	Dave Stewart	199.1	99	120	3.66	4.42	1993	162.0	101	115	4.44	5.06
1991	Charlie Hough	199.1	101	120	4.02	4.73	1992	176.1	102	119	3.93	4.56
1990	Charlie Hough	218.2	104	127	4.07	4.98	1991	218.2	104	127	4.07	4.98
1990	Bill Gullickson	193.1	104	122	3.82	4.44	1991	226.1	94	97	3.90	3.95
1988	Tom Browning	250.2	96	125	3.41	4.50	1989	249.2	93	114	3.39	4.24
1985	Ron Romanick	195.0	100	123	4.11	4.98	1986	106.1	134	119	5.50	4.89
1984	Eric Show	206.2	97	122	3.40	4.23	1985	233.0	87	116	3.09	4.17
1983	Dan Petry	266.1	97	121	3.92	4.83	1984	233.1	83	91	3.24	3.59
1983	Steve McCatty	167.0	103	123	3.99	4.71	1984	179.2	125	131	4.76	5.01
1983	Tim Conroy	162.1	102	120	3.94	4.58	1984	93.0	140	129	5.32	4.92
1981	Jim Palmer	127.1	104	126	3.75	4.61	1982	227.0	78	98	3.13	3.95
1980	Tom Seaver	168.0	100	123	3.64	4.48	1981	166.1	72	104	2.54	3.58
1980	Steve McCatty	221.2	100	123	3.86	4.76	1981	185.2	67	98	2.33	3.48
1977	Ross Grimsley	218.1	104	124	3.96	4.71	1978	263.0	86	102	3.05	3.57
1975	Dennis Blair	163.1	101	125	3.80	4.70	1976	15.2	110	132	4.02	4.80
1969	Luis Tiant	249.2	99	123	3.71	4.74	1970	92.2	89	116	3.40	4.63
1964	Bennie Daniels	163.0	102	121	3.70	4.56	1965	116.1	136	128	4.72	4.59
1963	Phil Regan	189.0	105	123	3.86	4.56	1964	146.2	134	112	5.03	4.33
1946	Monte Kennedy	186.2	98	129	3.42	4.54	1947	148.1	118	105	4.85	4.25
1944	Atley Donald	159.0	97	122	3.34	4.17	1945	63.2	88	108	2.97	3.73
1933	Sugar Cain	218.0	98	130	4.25	5.42	1934	230.2	96	112	4.41	5.10
1920	Eric Erickson	239.1	105	124	3.84	4.37	1921	179.0	88	101	3.62	4.06
1916	Jean Dubuc	170.1	102	120	2.96	3.47	1917	---	---	---	---	---
1913	Boardwalk Brown	235.1	104	122	2.94	3.40	1914	188.1	129	103	3.54	2.92
1912	Carl Cashion	170.1	95	129	3.17	3.98	1913	9.0	205	256	6.00	7.56
1910	Kirby White	179.1	105	122	3.16	3.53	1911	3.0	267	216	9.00	7.43
1908	Cy Morgan	205.0	101	130	2.46	2.90	1909	293.1	75	122	1.81	2.86
1907	Harry McIntire	199.2	101	132	2.39	3.26	1908	288.0	120	115	2.69	2.72
1890	Cannonball Titcomb	168.2	102	129	3.74	4.29	1891	---	---	---	---	---
1888	Bill Burdick	176.0	96	126	2.81	3.65	1889	---	---	---	---	---
1886	John Kirby	325.0	103	134	3.30	3.90	1887	103.0	174	137	7.25	5.71
1883	Charlie Sweeney	146.2	104	125	3.13	3.44	1884	492.0	58	81	1.70	2.31
1877	Tricky Nichols	350.0	101	120	2.60	2.91	1878	98.0	189	105	4.22	2.35

Some of these men didn't pitch at all in the subsequent season; others didn't do much with the time they saw. But of those who managed to gut it out, the overperformance remained. The average ERA- and FIP- for the 22 that qualified in the next campaign were 95 and 110, respectively.

So that gives some hope to Young — while he probably won't repeat 2014, he could have a decent season. Then again, this analysis doesn't take one critical thing into account: age. Young turned 35 last May, and by this point in a pitcher's life, they can implode at any time, for any reason.

With that in mind, let's look at another sample, one that looks upon Young's body of work. We'll take pitchers with at least 1,000 innings before age 36, with ERAs between 90 and 100 and FIPs between 105 and 115. (Young's career marks in those regards sit at 93 and 109, respectively.) Below, you'll find the 39 men who fit this profile, as well as their career outputs from 36 onward:

Years	Name	IP	ERA-	FIP-	ERA	FIP	Years +1	IP	ERA-	FIP-	ERA	FIP
2004-2014	Chris Young	1055.2	93	109	3.77	4.38	---	---	---	---	---	---
2004-2014	Jeremy Guthrie	1616.1	99	110	4.23	4.69	---	---	---	---	---	---
2000-2013	Jon Garland	2151.1	98	106	4.37	4.69	---	---	---	---	---	---
1998-2009	Braden Looper	1176.0	98	105	4.15	4.48	---	---	---	---	---	---
1998-2009	Jarrod Washburn	1863.2	92	105	4.10	4.60	---	---	---	---	---	---
1994-2006	Rick Helling	1526.1	99	107	4.68	5.00	---	---	---	---	---	---
1993-2006	Steve Trachsel	2303.1	99	109	4.28	4.73	2007-2008	197.2	124	134	5.60	6.01
1993-2002	Woody Williams	1313.0	92	106	4.06	4.69	2003-2007	903.1	105	108	4.36	4.55
1989-2003	Kent Mercker	1168.2	99	107	4.27	4.65	2004-2008	156.2	76	101	3.33	4.48
1979-1991	Dan Petry	2080.1	98	109	3.95	4.39	---	---	---	---	---	---
1977-1990	Dan Schatzeder	1310.1	99	106	3.72	3.99	1991	6.2	230	118	9.45	4.81
1976-1985	Pat Zachry	1177.1	99	108	3.52	3.84	---	---	---	---	---	---
1970-1983	Charlie Hough	1423.0	94	106	3.50	3.94	1984-1994	2378.0	95	110	3.89	4.49
1967-1982	Mike Torrez	2781.2	100	105	3.90	4.05	1983-1984	262.1	130	121	4.67	4.41
1966-1972	Tom Phoebus	1030.0	100	108	3.33	3.72	---	---	---	---	---	---
1961-1973	Bobby Bolin	1576.0	97	106	3.40	3.63	---	---	---	---	---	---
1959-1966	Ernie Broglio	1337.1	95	106	3.74	4.09	---	---	---	---	---	---
1958-1971	Mudcat Grant	2441.2	100	113	3.63	4.17	---	---	---	---	---	---
1955-1965	Roger Craig	1513.2	97	107	3.80	4.14	1966	22.2	155	125	5.56	4.36
1953-1964	Bob Buhl	2265.1	92	112	3.38	4.07	1965-1967	321.2	130	119	4.70	4.18
1952-1965	Ron Kline	1900.0	99	106	3.82	4.07	1968-1970	178.0	90	114	3.03	3.68
1951-1963	Bob Turley	1712.2	98	107	3.64	3.99	---	---	---	---	---	---
1939-1949	Elmer Riddle	1023.0	94	109	3.40	4.01	---	---	---	---	---	---
1936-1946	Johnny Lanning	1067.1	98	106	3.56	3.98	1947	3.2	242	181	9.82	7.41
1914-1919	Pete Schneider	1274.0	98	108	2.66	2.93	---	---	---	---	---	---
1913-1923	Harry Harper	1256.0	96	108	2.87	3.22	---	---	---	---	---	---
1912-1926	Dixie Davis	1318.2	94	108	3.97	4.49	---	---	---	---	---	---
1906-1918	Jack Coombs	2314.1	99	106	2.78	2.81	1920	5.2	84	96	3.18	3.46
1903-1913	Cy Morgan	1445.1	95	115	2.51	2.82	---	---	---	---	---	---
1903-1910	Ed Killian	1598.1	91	106	2.38	2.67	---	---	---	---	---	---
1902-1909	Bob Rhoads	1691.2	99	112	2.61	2.77	---	---	---	---	---	---
1902-1909	Carl Lundgren	1322.0	90	105	2.42	2.86	---	---	---	---	---	---
1901-1909	Frank Owen	1368.1	100	106	2.55	2.62	---	---	---	---	---	---
1896-1902	Cy Seymour	1029.0	99	112	3.76	4.10	---	---	---	---	---	---
1892-1903	Brickyard Kennedy	3021.0	98	108	3.96	4.28	---	---	---	---	---	---
1890-1898	Ed Stein	1656.0	97	109	3.97	4.35	---	---	---	---	---	---
1888-1895	Phil Knell	1452.1	100	106	4.05	4.06	---	---	---	---	---	---
1888-1891	Darby O'Brien	1080.2	100	111	3.68	3.90	---	---	---	---	---	---
1875-1884	George Bradley	2940.0	92	110	2.42	2.65	---	---	---	---	---	---

This sample kills a lot of the optimism of the first one. Of the 37 who could have pitched more, only 11 did, and they performed poorly. A 132 ERA- and a 120 FIP- doesn't keep you around for long. (Obviously, Hough's the exception here, but other circumstances allowed him to remain great.) By this test, Young — and Jeremy Guthrie, I suppose — doesn't have much of a future.

What does all of this mean for Young? Because he's defied expectations for as long as he has, we can probably say he's a true-talent overachiever. But he's still old, and he could fall off the cliff at any time. Steamer sure thinks he will  — it projects a 5.21 ERA and a 5.71 FIP, driven chiefly by that astronomical home run rate. While I don't see him regressing that much, I doubt he'll maintain what he did last year.

Moreover, in order for him to do anything, he'll have to join a team. At the time of this writing, he's still a free agent. Maybe the fact that no one's signed him yet testifies to the changing market — teams no longer value results as much as peripherals. Or maybe an old, injury-prone hurler doesn't appeal to them all that much.

Whatever the case may be, it'll be interesting to watch what happens to Young this year. He's had an odd career, and 2014 only represented another chapter in it. In 2015, the story might continue, or it might end; we'll have to see.

. . .

All data courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Ryan Romano is an editor for Beyond the Box Score. He also writes about the Orioles on Camden Depot and on Camden Chat that one time. Follow him on Twitter at @triple_r_ if you enjoy angry tweets about Maryland sports.