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Batter Bounce-Back (or Fall-Off) Tool


Building on my previous article on the impact of BABIP, K's, and BB's on hitters in 2010, I put together this interactive tool for folks to quickly examine the bounce-back (or fall-off) potential of hitters (best viewed in Wide format. Alternatively, you can view the tool here). The gist of the findings was that abnormal changes in BABIP have the biggest impact on performance followed by K% and BB%. The tool allows you to select a player and see what their performance in 2010 would have looked like had their BABIP, K% and BB% been in line with their previous 3-year averages.

The reference line marks the league average wOBA based on the weights that I used (see previous article). The table shows the % change between 2010 and players' 3-year average for each of the three measures so you can get a sense of what drove their performance.

While not a perfect tool, it should give you some idea as to how players might perform in 2011.

I've embedded a version below the fold.