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Sabermetric Primers

A guide to the projection systems

It's that time of year again! No, not spring training; projection season. Here's a guide to the various flavors, and what makes them all special.

Lineup Protection Exists, Doesn't

The idea of lineup protection is a site where inherited wisdom clashes with sabermetric analysis, but neither side is wrong about it.

Regression to the mean, starring Phil Hughes

The Minnesota right-hander almost certainly won't replicate his astounding 2014 season — not because of any decline in skill, but because of a statistical principle.

How to evaluate a pitcher, sabermetrically

Advanced stats might seem like a complicated foreign language, but becoming conversational is actually very easy. Learn how to analyze a pitcher's numbers.

How to evaluate a hitter, sabermetrically

Advanced stats might seem like a complicated foreign language, but becoming conversational is actually very easy. Learn how to analyze a hitter's numbers.

The runs-to-wins conversion, revisited

For years, some sabermetricians have been using a shorthand conversion of 10 runs into 1 win. It's probably time for a change.

Discussing MLBAM's new tracking system

Neil Weinberg, Kevin Ruprecht, and Bryan Cole discuss what to expect from MLBAM's new tracking system, and how it will change the way we watch and think about baseball

Demystifying BABIP

Oft-cited in sabermetric circles, BABIP is a frequently misunderstood stat and far less dependent on factors like "luck" than many observers would have you believe.

Visualizing defense / positional adjustments

Positional adjustments are one of the least understood components of modern baseball analysis. Here's a look at the logic behind them.

The argument against ERA

With a ready-made replacement available, why are we still using ERA?

Varying Run Environments Within Teams

How much can run environments differ for starting pitchers on the same team?

Saberizing a Mac #5: Calculating wOBA

After years of dormancy, Beyond the Box Score re-opens a classic guide to creating your own sabermetric workbench.

Introducing a predictive version of wOBA

Would a re-weighting of wOBA components lead the statistic to be more predictive?

Teaching the Mainstream about Sabermetrics

What concepts do you use to explain sabermetrics to your uninitiated friends? I'd start with Sky Kalkman's list.

BABIP and Regression toward the Mean

The search for evidence to back many sabermetric assumptions about year-to-year batting average on balls in play for pitchers.

Strikeouts! Walks! Leaderboards! Oh My!

Beyond the Box Score presents this year's ERA leaders, based solely on their strikeouts and walks.

Stop using K/BB!

Using K/BB isn't quite as effective as using a measure such and K%-BB%. Let's find out why.

The FIP/ERA Gap: A History

Has the gap between a pitcher's ERA and FIP always existed? Or is it something that has begun to occur just recently?

Strikeouts and BABIP

The relationship between strikeouts, BABIP and team BABIP are not as strong as one might expect.

Is BABIP sheer luck?

Batting average on ball in play (BABIP) is one of baseball's greatest mysteries. It has been shown that pitching skill and defense have some effect on BABiP, but their effect pales in comparison to that of sheer luck.

Optimizing Your Lineup By The Book

Finding the ideal batting order is overrated, but if you're going to do it, do it right. BtB shows how, from the leadoff hitter down through the number nine hitter (who shouldn't be the pitcher).

Stop using K/9 and BB/9!

A look at BABIP's effect on the 'per 9' metrics and why you shouldn't use them.

ERA+ Vs. ERA-

What's the difference between ERA+ and ERA-, and why does it matter?

FDP and Braves Starters (Part 3)

At the end of last month, FanGraphs rolled out a new pitcher valuation metric: Fielding Dependent Pitching (or FDP). Check out how FDP describes three great Braves starters other than the "Big Three."

FDP and Braves Starters (Part 2)

At the end of last month, FanGraphs rolled out a new pitcher valuation metric: Fielding Dependent Pitching (or FDP). Check out how FDP describes the Braves' legendary "Big Three."

Fielding Dependent Pitching And Atlanta Braves Starting Pitchers (Part 1 of 3)

At the end of last month, FanGraphs rolled out a new pitcher valuation metric: Fielding Dependent Pitching (or FDP). This week, at Beyond the Boxscore, we describe it to our readers, as well as provide FDP looks at great Braves starters.

Talking "Clutch" Hitting on MLB Network

Bill Petti Talks Ballpark Factors on Clubhouse Confidential

Bill Petti (now with Fangraphs and with roots at Beyond the Box Score) appeared on the MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential to discuss park factors.

What Starting Pitcher Metrics Correlate Year-to-Year?

Some pitching metrics are more descriptive than predictive. Here's a quick reference for which metrics correlate year-to-year for starting pitchers.

Opportunities: Another Flaw in Fielding Metrics?

All fielding opportunities are not created equal, causing there to be great variance in modern advanced fielding metrics.

What Hitting Metrics Correlate Year-to-Year?

Bill Petti | Ever wanted a handy table for the year-to-year correlations of batting statistics? Well look no further.

Anatomy of a Luck vs. Skill Evaluation

Bill Petti | Anatomy of a Luck vs. Skill Evaluation

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