clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Which pitchers are ready to conquer the competition in 2019?

A slightly different way of ranking pitchers reveals a handful of pitchers who should be much better this year than last (and some that may be worse).

By B. Ellis
Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies - Game One Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

With fantasy baseball season around the corner, I was messing around with some different ways to find sleeper pitchers for my various upcoming drafts. I stumbled into an interesting way of rating pitchers that I think applies to “real world” baseball in addition to the fantasy realm.

A quick breakdown of how I got the list, and then I’ll let you all pick it apart. I was looking at three areas of analysis while trying to figure out how to rate pitchers: weak contact, strikeouts versus walks, and guys who had considerably better FIP and xFIP numbers than ERA.

I first tackled contact type by taking figuring up the number of infield fly balls and ground balls per nine innings versus line drives per nine innings. Trying to keep this as easy as possible, I simply added the IFFB and GB per nine together and then subtracted the LD/9 from that for my contact number.

Next up, I took a similar approach, subtracting BB/9 from K/9 for my strikeout figure. That was easy enough! I then added the contact and strikeout numbers together for a subtotal.

The last component was to subtract each pitcher’s xFIP from the contact plus strikeout total. The idea is the higher the final score, the better, meaning that subtracting xFIP penalized pitchers with worse numbers in this category.

In the end, it’s a simple exercise to try and find pitchers who induce a combination of a high ground ball rate and weak contact (which is why the inclusion of IFFB) and who have good strikeout rates versus walk rates. Including the xFIP component was just an easy way for me to spot guys who really seemed unlucky last year.

The only thing left to do now was come up with a cool name for this system. With contact (CON) plus strikeouts (K) and using xFIP for expected runs against (R) I came up with CONKR, or CONQUER.

Disclaimer—I would not recommend using this as your number one way to assess pitchers, but it’s an easy way to spot guys who under performed and could be on their way to bigger and better things in 2019.

Without further ado—the rankings. These are broken down into two groups—the first being starting pitchers who tossed 120 or more innings in 2018 and the second being relievers with a minimum of 40 innings.

CONKR rankings—starters with 120-plus IP

Name CONKR CON K xFIP IP ERA IFFB GB LD K/9 BB/9 wIFFB/9 wGB/9 LD/9
Name CONKR CON K xFIP IP ERA IFFB GB LD K/9 BB/9 wIFFB/9 wGB/9 LD/9
Chris Sale 14.83 5.58 11.56 2.31 158 2.11 18 144 64 13.50 1.94 1.03 8.20 3.65
Jacob deGrom 12.87 6.22 9.25 2.60 217 1.70 26 235 111 11.16 1.91 1.08 9.75 4.60
Carlos Carrasco 12.53 6.67 8.78 2.92 186.2 3.33 13 228 103 10.66 1.88 0.63 11.02 4.98
Walker Buehler 12.11 7.67 7.59 3.15 136.1 2.31 8 169 61 9.97 2.38 0.53 11.18 4.03
Patrick Corbin 12.06 5.76 8.91 2.61 200 3.15 8 241 121 11.07 2.16 0.36 10.85 5.45
Max Scherzer 11.92 4.82 10.16 3.06 220.2 2.53 38 170 90 12.24 2.08 1.55 6.95 3.68
Nick Pivetta 11.78 7.62 7.57 3.41 163 4.80 16 203 81 10.33 2.76 0.88 11.21 4.47
Aaron Nola 11.71 7.89 7.03 3.21 212.1 2.37 20 267 101 9.49 2.46 0.85 11.33 4.29
Lance McCullers Jr. 11.67 8.86 6.29 3.48 126 3.93 5 177 58 9.86 3.57 0.36 12.64 4.14
James Paxton 11.58 5.28 9.32 3.02 160.1 3.76 15 154 75 11.68 2.36 0.84 8.66 4.22
Masahiro Tanaka 11.29 7.56 7.15 3.42 156 3.75 14 201 84 9.17 2.02 0.81 11.60 4.85
Trevor Bauer 11.21 5.84 8.51 3.14 171.1 2.26 16 181 86 11.50 2.99 0.84 9.52 4.52
Justin Verlander 11.14 3.53 10.64 3.03 214 2.52 37 143 96 12.20 1.56 1.56 6.01 4.04
German Marquez 11.13 6.29 7.94 3.10 196 3.77 12 243 118 10.56 2.62 0.55 11.16 5.42
Corey Kluber 10.90 6.11 7.87 3.08 215 2.89 19 255 128 9.29 1.42 0.80 10.67 5.36
Clayton Kershaw 10.82 6.98 7.03 3.19 161.1 2.73 10 217 102 8.65 1.62 0.56 12.12 5.70
Jon Gray 10.69 7.32 6.84 3.47 172.1 5.12 16 233 109 9.56 2.72 0.84 12.18 5.70
Blake Snell 10.45 5.79 7.82 3.16 180.2 1.89 10 183 77 11.01 3.19 0.50 9.14 3.85
Gerrit Cole 10.44 3.96 9.52 3.04 200.1 2.88 23 160 95 12.40 2.88 1.03 7.20 4.27
Stephen Strasburg 10.43 5.54 8.17 3.28 130 3.74 8 147 75 10.80 2.63 0.55 10.18 5.19
Noah Syndergaard 10.37 6.89 6.77 3.29 154.1 3.03 11 213 106 9.04 2.27 0.64 12.44 6.19
Anibal Sanchez 10.33 7.77 6.33 3.77 133.2 2.90 15 161 61 8.96 2.63 1.01 10.88 4.12
J.A. Happ 10.28 6.96 7.20 3.88 177.2 3.65 29 191 83 9.78 2.58 1.47 9.70 4.22
Steven Matz 10.18 8.82 5.49 4.13 154 3.97 10 206 65 8.88 3.39 0.58 12.04 3.80
Dallas Keuchel 10.12 9.78 4.18 3.84 204.2 3.74 14 352 144 6.73 2.55 0.62 15.51 6.35
Charlie Morton 10.10 6.14 7.38 3.42 167 3.13 11 194 91 10.83 3.45 0.59 10.46 4.90
Rick Porcello 9.83 7.02 6.68 3.87 191.1 4.28 18 242 111 8.94 2.26 0.85 11.40 5.23
Miles Mikolas 9.76 8.18 5.25 3.67 200.2 2.83 17 300 135 6.55 1.30 0.76 13.49 6.07
Zack Greinke 9.71 6.39 6.76 3.44 207.2 3.21 17 265 135 8.62 1.86 0.74 11.51 5.86
Chris Archer 9.59 6.32 6.86 3.59 148.1 4.31 14 186 96 9.83 2.97 0.85 11.30 5.83
Jameson Taillon 9.56 6.88 6.26 3.58 191 3.20 16 251 121 8.43 2.17 0.75 11.83 5.70
Alex Wood 9.54 7.66 5.60 3.72 148 3.65 8 215 97 7.97 2.37 0.49 13.07 5.90
Luis Severino 9.52 4.43 8.19 3.10 191.1 3.39 17 208 131 10.35 2.16 0.80 9.80 6.17
Mike Foltynewicz 9.51 6.69 6.59 3.77 183 2.85 22 200 86 9.93 3.34 1.08 9.84 4.23
Jake Arrieta 9.44 9.30 4.22 4.08 172.2 3.96 15 265 102 7.19 2.97 0.78 13.85 5.33
Luis Castillo 9.43 6.97 6.15 3.69 169.2 4.30 15 221 105 8.75 2.60 0.80 11.76 5.59
Joey Lucchesi 9.43 5.82 7.06 3.45 130 4.08 8 155 79 10.04 2.98 0.55 10.73 5.47
Rich Hill 9.40 5.63 7.45 3.68 131.2 3.69 21 132 71 10.12 2.67 1.44 9.05 4.87
Andrew Suarez 9.38 8.38 4.77 3.77 160.1 4.49 8 245 104 7.30 2.53 0.45 13.77 5.85
Jack Flaherty 9.35 5.60 7.33 3.58 151 3.34 19 151 76 10.85 3.52 1.13 9.00 4.53
Matt Harvey 9.33 7.61 5.80 4.08 149 4.71 21 196 91 7.73 1.93 1.27 11.84 5.50
Tyler Skaggs 9.29 6.69 6.39 3.79 125.1 4.02 12 157 76 9.26 2.87 0.86 11.29 5.47
Alex Cobb 9.20 10.18 3.49 4.47 152.1 4.90 18 250 96 6.03 2.54 1.07 14.79 5.68
Zack Wheeler 9.19 6.87 6.13 3.81 182.1 3.31 23 215 99 8.84 2.71 1.14 10.63 4.89
Kyle Hendricks 8.97 7.55 5.29 3.87 199 3.44 18 274 125 7.28 1.99 0.81 12.39 5.65
Jose Urena 8.92 9.16 4.08 4.32 174 3.98 16 254 93 6.72 2.64 0.83 13.14 4.81
Marco Gonzales 8.79 6.28 6.10 3.59 166.2 4.00 17 224 125 7.83 1.73 0.92 12.13 6.77
Clayton Richard 8.79 10.30 2.73 4.24 158.2 5.33 7 280 106 6.13 3.40 0.40 15.93 6.03
Mike Leake 8.77 8.80 4.12 4.15 185.2 4.36 14 303 136 5.77 1.65 0.68 14.72 6.61
Jakob Junis 8.68 6.66 6.15 4.13 177 4.37 19 223 111 8.34 2.19 0.97 11.34 5.64
Andrew Heaney 8.67 5.60 6.75 3.68 180 4.15 23 209 120 9.00 2.25 1.15 10.45 6.00
Jose Berrios 8.66 5.95 6.60 3.89 192.1 3.84 18 211 102 9.45 2.85 0.84 9.89 4.78
CC Sabathia 8.65 7.71 5.24 4.30 153 3.65 20 204 93 8.24 3.00 1.18 12.00 5.47
David Price 8.63 6.09 6.49 3.95 176 3.58 25 193 99 9.05 2.56 1.28 9.87 5.06
Kevin Gausman 8.62 8.01 4.80 4.19 183.2 3.92 19 261 117 7.25 2.45 0.93 12.82 5.75
Zack Godley 8.59 7.32 5.23 3.96 177.1 4.77 14 244 114 9.29 4.06 0.71 12.40 5.79
Zach Eflin 8.50 6.47 6.05 4.02 128 4.36 15 154 77 8.65 2.60 1.05 10.83 5.41
Lance Lynn 8.47 7.85 4.64 4.02 149.1 4.94 15 219 104 9.16 4.52 0.91 13.22 6.28
Kyle Gibson 8.41 7.75 4.57 3.91 196.2 3.62 16 276 123 8.19 3.62 0.73 12.66 5.64
Eduardo Rodriguez 8.35 5.41 6.86 3.92 123.1 3.79 8 134 68 10.00 3.14 0.58 9.80 4.97
Ivan Nova 8.35 8.22 4.41 4.28 161 4.19 17 236 106 6.37 1.96 0.95 13.19 5.93
Mike Fiers 8.34 7.54 5.29 4.49 168.2 3.31 24 204 87 7.26 1.97 1.28 10.92 4.66
Kyle Freeland 8.30 7.93 4.59 4.22 202.1 2.85 23 268 113 7.70 3.11 1.02 11.93 5.03
Mike Clevinger 8.25 5.81 6.30 3.86 200 3.02 23 212 106 9.32 3.02 1.04 9.54 4.77
Felix Hernandez 7.91 8.58 3.96 4.63 150 5.64 18 215 90 7.38 3.42 1.08 12.90 5.40
Cole Hamels 7.91 6.06 5.80 3.95 190.2 3.78 15 236 123 8.87 3.07 0.71 11.17 5.82
Robbie Ray 7.61 4.46 6.92 3.77 123.2 3.93 13 111 63 12.01 5.09 0.95 8.11 4.60
Junior Guerra 7.38 6.87 4.86 4.35 135 4.27 18 167 82 8.53 3.67 1.20 11.13 5.47
Luke Weaver 7.27 6.97 4.66 4.36 129.1 4.66 21 165 86 8.07 3.41 1.46 11.50 6.00
Dylan Bundy 7.27 4.73 6.82 4.28 171.2 5.45 20 170 100 9.65 2.83 1.05 8.94 5.26
Vince Velasquez 7.23 5.02 6.31 4.10 145.2 4.88 18 145 82 9.89 3.58 1.12 8.99 5.08
Sean Manaea 7.13 7.19 4.26 4.32 160.2 3.59 16 215 103 6.05 1.79 0.90 12.08 5.79
Michael Fulmer 6.87 6.81 4.35 4.29 132.1 4.69 14 172 86 7.48 3.13 0.95 11.72 5.86
Sean Newcomb 6.70 6.68 4.35 4.33 163.1 3.91 18 194 91 8.76 4.41 0.99 10.71 5.02
Tanner Roark 6.69 6.30 4.80 4.41 180 4.25 22 221 117 7.30 2.50 1.10 11.05 5.85
Madison Bumgarner 6.54 6.27 4.59 4.32 129.2 3.26 11 166 87 7.57 2.98 0.77 11.56 6.06
Jose Quintana 6.47 6.00 4.65 4.18 174.1 4.03 13 214 111 8.16 3.51 0.67 11.06 5.74
Sal Romano 6.32 7.96 3.08 4.72 131.1 5.48 16 193 93 6.44 3.36 1.10 13.25 6.38
Jordan Zimmermann 6.29 4.81 5.83 4.35 131.1 4.52 16 145 91 7.61 1.78 1.10 9.95 6.25
Mike Minor 6.02 5.16 5.39 4.53 157 4.18 27 158 95 7.57 2.18 1.55 9.06 5.45
Gio Gonzalez 5.93 6.79 3.58 4.44 171 4.21 14 229 114 7.79 4.21 0.74 12.05 6.00
Derek Holland 5.77 5.02 4.96 4.21 161.2 3.67 19 180 109 8.52 3.56 1.06 10.05 6.09
Wei-Yin Chen 5.68 6.09 4.32 4.73 133.1 4.79 21 149 80 7.49 3.17 1.42 10.08 5.41
Tyler Anderson 5.56 4.40 5.37 4.21 176 4.55 22 185 121 8.39 3.02 1.13 9.46 6.19
Bartolo Colon 5.53 7.05 3.23 4.75 139.1 5.68 16 207 114 4.84 1.61 1.04 13.39 7.38
Wade LeBlanc 5.52 5.04 4.92 4.44 148.1 3.64 14 161 92 7.16 2.24 0.85 9.78 5.59
Francisco Liriano 5.37 7.55 2.53 4.71 131.2 4.65 7 186 83 7.45 4.92 0.48 12.76 5.69
Jhoulys Chacin 5.26 5.76 3.97 4.47 192.2 3.50 14 228 119 7.29 3.32 0.66 10.68 5.57
Carlos Rodon 5.22 8.01 2.61 5.40 120.2 4.18 16 146 55 6.71 4.10 1.20 10.93 4.12
Trevor Williams 5.18 5.98 3.74 4.54 170.2 3.11 17 205 109 6.64 2.90 0.90 10.84 5.76
Tyson Ross 4.92 5.16 3.96 4.20 129.1 4.38 7 170 103 7.72 3.76 0.49 11.85 7.18
Jaime Barria 4.83 6.27 3.55 4.99 129.1 3.41 23 142 75 6.82 3.27 1.60 9.90 5.23
Lucas Giolito 4.73 8.37 1.82 5.46 173.1 6.13 20 240 99 6.49 4.67 1.04 12.48 5.15
Julio Teheran 4.52 5.24 4.00 4.72 175.2 3.94 20 175 93 8.30 4.30 1.03 8.99 4.78
Chris Stratton 4.41 5.10 3.68 4.37 141.2 4.70 5 187 112 6.92 3.24 0.32 11.92 7.14
Matthew Boyd 4.32 3.33 5.71 4.72 170.1 4.39 25 140 102 8.40 2.69 1.32 7.41 5.40
Trevor Richards 4.25 3.14 5.41 4.30 126.1 4.42 7 126 89 9.26 3.85 0.50 8.99 6.35
Chase Anderson 4.15 4.90 4.04 4.79 158 3.93 28 152 94 7.29 3.25 1.59 8.66 5.35
Danny Duffy 3.91 4.70 4.13 4.92 155 4.88 18 167 104 8.19 4.06 1.05 9.70 6.04
Reynaldo Lopez 3.76 5.36 3.62 5.22 188.2 3.91 38 185 111 7.20 3.58 1.82 8.85 5.31
Jon Lester 3.75 3.97 4.21 4.43 181.2 3.32 17 200 137 7.38 3.17 0.84 9.93 6.80
James Shields 3.42 5.03 3.44 5.05 204 4.50 29 219 134 6.79 3.35 1.28 9.66 5.91
Jake Odorizzi 3.19 3.02 5.04 4.87 164.1 4.49 29 131 105 8.87 3.83 1.59 7.18 5.76
Andrew Cashner 2.87 6.06 2.00 5.19 153 5.29 17 205 119 5.82 3.82 1.00 12.06 7.00
Dan Straily 1.41 2.95 3.45 4.99 122.1 4.12 17 112 89 7.28 3.83 1.25 8.26 6.56
Marco Estrada 1.11 3.58 3.32 5.79 143.2 5.64 40 112 95 6.45 3.13 2.51 7.04 5.97

CONKR rankings—relievers with 40-plus IP

Name CONKR CON K xFIP IP ERA FIP IFFB GB LD K/9 BB/9 wIFFB/9 wGB/9 LD/9
Name CONKR CON K xFIP IP ERA FIP IFFB GB LD K/9 BB/9 wIFFB/9 wGB/9 LD/9
Edwin Diaz 15.91 4.56 13.13 1.78 73.1 1.96 1.61 5 59 27 15.22 2.09 0.62 7.26 3.32
Brad Ziegler 14.97 15.49 3.06 3.58 73.2 3.91 4.31 1 160 35 6.11 3.05 0.12 19.67 4.30
Ryan Pressly 14.91 7.48 10.01 2.58 71 2.54 2.47 2 85 28 12.8 2.79 0.25 10.77 3.55
Matt Barnes 14.90 8.24 9.49 2.83 61.2 3.65 2.71 4 71 19 14.01 4.52 0.59 10.44 2.79
Tim Hill 14.16 11.95 5.52 3.31 45.2 4.53 3.51 2 84 26 8.28 2.76 0.40 16.73 5.18
T.J. McFarland 14.10 15.38 2.50 3.78 72 2.00 3.63 5 152 34 5.25 2.75 0.63 19.00 4.25
Robbie Erlin 14.04 10.17 6.84 2.97 52.2 2.05 2.71 4 77 22 7.52 0.68 0.69 13.28 3.79
Dan Otero 13.95 11.29 5.83 3.17 58.2 5.22 4.76 1 115 43 6.6 0.77 0.15 17.78 6.65
Scott Alexander 13.87 13.32 3.89 3.34 64.2 3.62 3.61 1 125 31 7.65 3.76 0.14 17.52 4.35
Seranthony Dominguez 13.56 8.53 8.07 3.04 58 2.95 2.85 2 73 20 11.48 3.41 0.31 11.33 3.10
Corey Knebel 13.56 5.23 10.73 2.40 55.1 3.58 3.03 3 52 23 14.31 3.58 0.49 8.49 3.76
Zach Britton 13.45 14.33 2.87 3.75 40.2 3.10 4.22 1 81 18 7.52 4.65 0.22 18.13 4.03
Aroldis Chapman 13.40 4.93 11.05 2.58 51.1 2.45 2.09 7 37 16 16.31 5.26 1.23 6.52 2.82
Kirby Yates 13.36 5.57 10.43 2.64 63 2.14 2.54 8 59 28 12.86 2.43 1.14 8.43 4.00
Dellin Betances 13.20 3.13 12.02 1.95 66.2 2.70 2.47 4 54 35 15.53 3.51 0.54 7.34 4.76
Will Smith 13.03 6.28 9.51 2.76 53 2.55 2.07 11 50 24 12.06 2.55 1.87 8.49 4.08
Blake Treinen 12.83 6.40 8.85 2.42 80.1 0.78 1.82 5 98 46 11.2 2.35 0.56 11.01 5.17
Jared Hughes 12.81 12.08 4.12 3.39 78.2 1.94 3.28 4 136 35 6.75 2.63 0.46 15.65 4.03
Sam Dyson 12.81 11.81 4.61 3.61 70.1 2.69 3.47 4 117 29 7.17 2.56 0.51 15.02 3.72
Jeremy Jeffress 12.57 8.15 7.28 2.86 76.2 1.29 2.78 3 102 36 10.45 3.17 0.35 12.05 4.25
Zach Duke 12.36 10.90 5.20 3.74 52 4.15 3.01 3 92 32 8.83 3.63 0.52 15.92 5.54
Jose Alvarado 12.32 8.30 7.17 3.15 64 2.39 2.27 2 83 26 11.25 4.08 0.28 11.67 3.66
Brad Hand 12.28 5.50 9.75 2.97 72 2.75 3.20 6 70 32 13.25 3.5 0.75 8.75 4.00
Kevin McCarthy 12.25 12.63 3.25 3.63 72 3.25 4.06 2 142 43 5.75 2.5 0.25 17.75 5.38
Adam Cimber 12.20 10.31 5.40 3.51 68.1 3.42 3.42 6 115 43 7.64 2.24 0.79 15.20 5.68
Ken Giles 12.15 7.19 8.23 3.27 50.1 4.65 3.08 4 66 30 9.48 1.25 0.72 11.86 5.39
Josh Hader 12.11 1.66 12.50 2.05 81.1 2.43 2.23 7 37 29 15.82 3.32 0.78 4.11 3.22
Scott Oberg 12.11 8.04 6.90 2.83 58.2 2.45 2.87 3 87 38 8.74 1.84 0.46 13.45 5.88
David Robertson 11.94 6.63 8.40 3.09 69.2 3.23 2.97 6 73 28 11.76 3.36 0.78 9.49 3.64
Alex Claudio 11.93 11.94 3.61 3.62 67.1 4.54 3.46 0 143 54 5.35 1.74 0.00 19.18 7.24
Sean Doolittle 11.92 3.80 10.80 2.68 45 1.60 1.89 7 30 18 12 1.2 1.40 6.00 3.60
Craig Stammen 11.84 6.72 8.09 2.97 79 2.73 2.19 1 101 43 10.03 1.94 0.11 11.51 4.90
Archie Bradley 11.81 8.47 6.91 3.57 71.2 3.64 3.71 5 96 34 9.42 2.51 0.63 12.13 4.30
Tommy Hunter 11.60 10.55 5.06 4.01 64 3.80 3.63 5 104 34 7.17 2.11 0.70 14.63 4.78
Drew VerHagen 11.46 9.83 5.81 4.18 52.2 3.76 3.10 8 66 17 8.72 2.91 1.38 11.38 2.93
Dylan Floro 11.46 10.27 4.93 3.74 64 2.25 3.08 5 102 34 8.16 3.23 0.70 14.34 4.78
Jace Fry 11.43 5.57 8.76 2.90 50.1 4.29 2.43 1 54 24 12.16 3.4 0.18 9.70 4.31
Adam Morgan 11.38 10.08 5.11 3.81 49.1 3.83 3.79 4 74 23 9.12 4.01 0.73 13.56 4.22
Brad Peacock 11.22 3.57 10.52 2.87 63.1 3.55 3.54 4 53 32 13.36 2.84 0.57 7.56 4.56
Juan Nicasio 11.18 4.07 10.29 3.18 42 6.00 2.99 1 44 26 11.36 1.07 0.21 9.43 5.57
Matt Andriese 11.16 8.57 6.19 3.60 65.1 5.10 4.32 5 95 38 8.95 2.76 0.69 13.13 5.25
Will Harris 11.10 5.93 7.94 2.77 56.2 3.49 2.44 3 73 39 10.16 2.22 0.48 11.69 6.25
Hector Neris 10.91 2.29 11.33 2.71 47.2 5.10 4.04 5 33 26 14.35 3.02 0.95 6.29 4.96
Richard Rodriguez 10.82 5.34 8.95 3.47 69.1 2.47 2.60 5 60 24 11.42 2.47 0.65 7.81 3.13
John Axford 10.71 9.67 5.05 4.01 51.2 5.57 4.15 2 78 25 8.88 3.83 0.35 13.71 4.39
Adam Ottavino 10.69 5.01 8.81 3.13 77.2 2.43 2.74 6 65 28 12.98 4.17 0.70 7.58 3.26
Tyler Glasnow 10.68 8.04 6.11 3.47 56 4.34 3.63 0 75 25 11.57 5.46 0.00 12.05 4.02
Jesse Chavez 10.59 6.91 7.09 3.41 95.1 2.55 3.54 9 118 54 8.69 1.6 0.85 11.17 5.11
Joe Smith 10.59 7.57 6.71 3.69 45.2 3.74 4.06 7 52 21 9.07 2.36 1.39 10.35 4.18
Chris Volstad 10.57 12.14 2.93 4.50 43 6.70 5.65 4 85 31 5.44 2.51 0.84 17.79 6.49
Brad Boxberger 10.51 7.80 6.58 3.87 53.1 4.39 4.55 7 59 20 11.98 5.4 1.19 10.00 3.39
Tony Watson 10.41 5.59 7.91 3.09 66 2.59 2.45 7 73 39 9.82 1.91 0.95 9.95 5.32
Jose Leclerc 10.36 4.09 9.37 3.10 57.2 1.56 1.90 14 34 22 13.27 3.9 2.20 5.35 3.46
Hector Rondon 10.34 6.56 7.17 3.39 59 3.20 2.79 4 74 35 10.22 3.05 0.61 11.29 5.34
Jeurys Familia 10.23 6.88 6.88 3.53 72 3.13 2.65 7 87 39 10.38 3.5 0.88 10.88 4.88
Joakim Soria 10.19 4.78 8.76 3.35 60.2 3.12 2.44 12 56 36 11.13 2.37 1.79 8.37 5.38
Felipe Vazquez 10.18 4.89 8.35 3.06 70 2.70 2.43 6 77 45 11.44 3.09 0.77 9.90 5.79
Luis Garcia 10.06 7.24 6.46 3.64 46 6.07 3.51 6 62 31 9.98 3.52 1.17 12.13 6.07
Chris Rusin 10.00 10.79 3.46 4.25 54.2 6.09 4.64 3 91 29 7.74 4.28 0.50 15.11 4.82
Chaz Roe 9.98 7.19 6.62 3.83 50.1 3.58 4.04 5 59 24 9.48 2.86 0.90 10.60 4.31
Noe Ramirez 9.94 6.91 6.89 3.86 82.1 4.37 4.42 7 96 40 10.17 3.28 0.77 10.52 4.38
Matt Grace 9.91 8.51 5.28 3.88 59.2 2.87 3.40 5 88 37 7.24 1.96 0.76 13.38 5.63
Keone Kela 9.84 5.02 8.13 3.31 52 3.29 2.97 11 47 29 11.42 3.29 1.90 8.13 5.02
Ryan Tepera 9.81 7.71 6.12 4.02 64.2 3.62 4.17 10 73 28 9.46 3.34 1.40 10.23 3.93
Tanner Scott 9.72 4.58 8.10 2.96 53.1 5.40 3.40 1 62 36 12.83 4.73 0.17 10.51 6.10
Edgar Santana 9.67 7.90 5.70 3.93 66.1 3.26 3.58 6 92 40 7.33 1.63 0.82 12.53 5.45
Kenley Jansen 9.67 5.06 8.17 3.56 71.2 3.01 4.03 13 66 39 10.3 2.13 1.64 8.34 4.93
Jesse Biddle 9.64 8.12 5.09 3.57 63.2 3.11 3.88 4 90 37 9.47 4.38 0.57 12.82 5.27
Robert Gsellman 9.62 9.11 4.73 4.22 80 4.28 3.95 8 117 44 7.88 3.15 0.90 13.16 4.95
Yoshihisa Hirano 9.59 8.71 4.89 4.01 66.1 2.44 3.69 3 89 28 8.01 3.12 0.41 12.12 3.81
Taylor Rogers 9.59 4.76 7.77 2.94 68.1 2.63 2.33 5 73 42 9.88 2.11 0.66 9.65 5.55
Seth Lugo 9.56 6.91 6.20 3.55 78.1 2.30 2.97 4 96 40 8.73 2.53 0.46 11.06 4.61
Collin McHugh 9.45 3.62 9.09 3.26 72.1 1.99 2.72 8 56 35 11.7 2.61 1.00 6.99 4.37
Jake Petricka 9.44 8.56 4.93 4.05 45.2 4.53 4.45 4 73 34 8.08 3.15 0.80 14.54 6.77
Steve Cishek 9.42 6.93 6.40 3.91 70.1 2.18 3.45 4 80 30 9.98 3.58 0.51 10.27 3.85
Joe Biagini 9.40 9.83 4.22 4.65 53.1 5.40 5.41 7 82 31 6.75 2.53 1.19 13.90 5.25
Alex Colome 9.40 6.09 6.75 3.44 68 3.04 3.44 5 86 45 9.53 2.78 0.66 11.38 5.96
Mike Mayers 9.36 7.38 5.93 3.95 51.2 4.70 3.95 11 67 36 8.54 2.61 1.93 11.78 6.33
Dan Jennings 9.33 10.27 3.10 4.04 64 3.23 4.10 5 110 42 6.33 3.23 0.70 15.47 5.91
Chad Green 9.20 2.99 9.40 3.19 75.2 2.50 2.86 9 59 43 11.18 1.78 1.08 7.06 5.15
Wade Davis 9.20 5.67 7.16 3.63 65.1 4.13 3.65 5 64 28 10.74 3.58 0.69 8.85 3.87
Joe Jimenez 9.14 4.92 8.04 3.82 62.2 4.31 2.91 7 58 31 11.2 3.16 1.01 8.39 4.49
Jordan Hicks 9.13 10.49 2.90 4.26 77.2 3.59 3.74 4 130 44 8.11 5.21 0.47 15.16 5.13
Heath Hembree 9.11 5.55 7.35 3.79 60 4.20 4.19 6 61 30 11.4 4.05 0.90 9.15 4.50
Luke Jackson 8.98 7.39 5.53 3.94 40.2 4.43 3.55 5 54 26 10.18 4.65 1.12 12.09 5.82
Pedro Strop 8.95 7.60 5.43 4.08 59.2 2.26 3.43 7 71 28 8.6 3.17 1.06 10.79 4.26
Ryan Madson 8.91 6.38 6.50 3.97 52.2 5.47 3.98 5 66 34 9.23 2.73 0.86 11.38 5.86
Jake Diekman 8.90 7.12 5.91 4.13 53.1 4.73 3.74 4 66 28 11.14 5.23 0.68 11.19 4.75
Reyes Moronta 8.89 7.06 5.82 3.99 65 2.49 3.24 13 61 23 10.94 5.12 1.80 8.45 3.18
Sergio Romo 8.86 5.35 7.47 3.96 62.2 3.88 4.13 11 59 33 9.77 2.3 1.59 8.54 4.77
Jacob Barnes 8.84 8.40 4.44 4.00 48.2 3.33 3.72 5 72 32 8.69 4.25 0.93 13.44 5.98
Justin Miller 8.70 5.53 7.40 4.23 52.1 3.61 4.44 4 45 17 10.32 2.92 0.69 7.77 2.94
John Brebbia 8.69 4.66 7.82 3.79 50.2 3.20 3.02 9 43 26 10.66 2.84 1.61 7.71 4.66
Oliver Drake 8.63 5.72 6.42 3.51 47.2 5.29 3.24 5 61 36 9.63 3.21 0.95 11.63 6.86
James Pazos 8.63 7.38 5.40 4.15 50 2.88 3.60 7 64 30 8.1 2.7 1.26 11.52 5.40
Shane Greene 8.62 6.13 6.54 4.05 63.1 5.12 4.61 5 77 39 9.24 2.7 0.71 10.98 5.56
Jorge De La Rosa 8.58 9.80 3.21 4.43 56 3.38 4.38 9 83 31 7.55 4.34 1.45 13.34 4.98
Chasen Bradford 8.57 9.30 4.02 4.75 53.2 3.69 4.99 4 81 30 6.37 2.35 0.68 13.70 5.08
Bud Norris 8.56 5.03 7.18 3.65 57.2 3.59 3.99 3 63 34 10.46 3.28 0.47 9.91 5.35
Alex Wilson 8.53 8.53 4.09 4.09 61.2 3.36 4.28 5 90 37 6.28 2.19 0.74 13.24 5.44
Lou Trivino 8.44 5.67 6.29 3.52 73 2.96 3.70 4 83 41 10.11 3.82 0.49 10.23 5.05
Brandon Workman 8.43 8.10 4.58 4.25 41.1 3.27 4.42 6 51 20 8.06 3.48 1.31 11.17 4.38
Craig Kimbrel 8.42 2.17 9.38 3.13 62.1 2.74 3.13 11 33 29 13.86 4.48 1.59 4.78 4.20
Victor Arano 8.37 5.79 6.52 3.94 59.1 2.73 3.36 7 64 33 9.1 2.58 1.07 9.75 5.03
Austin Pruitt 8.34 9.49 3.36 4.51 69.2 4.65 3.99 3 112 42 5.43 2.07 0.39 14.57 5.46
Jose Alvarez 8.31 7.00 5.29 3.98 63 2.71 3.05 7 77 35 8.43 3.14 1.00 11.00 5.00
Adam Conley 8.29 6.45 5.68 3.84 50.2 4.09 3.60 4 58 26 8.88 3.2 0.72 10.40 4.66
Neil Ramirez 8.16 5.24 7.13 4.21 41.2 4.54 5.03 7 37 20 11.02 3.89 1.53 8.08 4.37
Eddie Butler 8.14 11.34 1.82 5.02 49.2 5.62 6.14 3 91 32 5.26 3.44 0.55 16.65 5.85
Seung Hwan Oh 8.12 3.83 8.16 3.87 68.1 2.63 3.29 11 52 34 10.4 2.24 1.45 6.87 4.49
Justin Anderson 8.10 8.00 4.39 4.29 55.1 4.07 3.83 8 65 24 10.9 6.51 1.31 10.62 3.92
Cam Bedrosian 8.05 7.88 4.36 4.19 64 3.80 4.11 8 86 38 8.02 3.66 1.13 12.09 5.34
Tayron Guerrero 7.91 6.05 5.89 4.03 58 5.43 4.32 4 74 39 10.55 4.66 0.62 11.48 6.05
Trevor Hildenberger 7.91 6.29 5.42 3.80 73 5.42 4.53 5 101 55 8.63 3.21 0.62 12.45 6.78
Jalen Beeks 7.91 9.16 3.28 4.53 46.2 4.82 4.47 5 69 27 7.33 4.05 0.97 13.44 5.26
Bryan Shaw 7.90 7.97 4.28 4.35 54.2 5.93 4.92 1 83 36 8.89 4.61 0.17 13.78 5.98
Ty Blach 7.88 7.67 4.00 3.79 54 3.17 3.29 4 84 42 6.67 2.67 0.67 14.00 7.00
Chris Martin 7.87 4.59 6.91 3.63 41.2 4.54 3.52 4 53 36 7.99 1.08 0.87 11.58 7.86
Zach McAllister 7.86 6.20 5.80 4.14 45 6.20 4.47 3 59 31 7.8 2 0.60 11.80 6.20
Andrew Chafin 7.84 6.42 5.11 3.69 49.1 3.10 2.65 3 65 33 9.67 4.56 0.55 11.91 6.05
Shawn Kelley 7.79 4.78 7.16 4.15 49 2.94 3.71 8 38 20 9.18 2.02 1.47 6.98 3.67
Brad Brach 7.76 7.38 4.60 4.22 62.2 3.59 3.67 7 91 47 8.62 4.02 1.01 13.17 6.80
Juan Minaya 7.70 6.43 5.60 4.33 46.2 3.28 3.57 10 48 25 11.19 5.59 1.95 9.35 4.87
Fernando Rodney 7.55 6.32 5.31 4.08 64.1 3.36 4.03 8 80 43 9.79 4.48 1.12 11.23 6.04
Hector Velazquez 7.40 9.13 2.80 4.53 54.2 2.63 3.53 5 93 43 4.94 2.14 0.83 15.44 7.14
Jordan Lyles 7.32 5.60 5.98 4.26 40.2 3.32 3.11 2 42 19 9.74 3.76 0.45 9.40 4.25
Brandon Kintzler 7.29 8.67 3.12 4.50 60.2 4.60 4.10 5 96 43 6.38 3.26 0.75 14.35 6.43
Sam Freeman 7.29 6.47 4.65 3.83 50.1 4.29 3.66 2 63 29 10.37 5.72 0.36 11.32 5.21
Jim Johnson 7.25 7.98 3.49 4.22 62 3.92 4.64 3 96 44 6.39 2.9 0.44 13.94 6.39
Joe Kelly 7.24 6.35 4.93 4.04 65.2 4.39 3.57 7 84 45 9.32 4.39 0.97 11.60 6.21
Raisel Iglesias 7.22 3.88 6.87 3.53 72 2.38 4.23 9 70 48 10 3.13 1.13 8.75 6.00
Kyle Crick 7.21 4.94 6.27 4.00 60.1 2.39 3.14 10 63 40 9.7 3.43 1.50 9.43 5.99
Dan Winkler 7.20 3.59 7.31 3.70 60.1 3.43 2.76 4 61 41 10.29 2.98 0.60 9.13 6.14
Jake McGee 7.18 6.16 5.43 4.41 51.1 6.49 4.91 4 64 33 8.24 2.81 0.70 11.27 5.81
Chris Devenski 7.18 3.79 7.35 3.96 45.1 3.97 4.29 4 40 25 9.73 2.38 0.80 7.98 4.99
A.J. Minter 7.11 3.83 6.90 3.62 61.1 3.23 2.72 10 61 45 10.13 3.23 1.47 8.99 6.63
Pedro Baez 7.10 4.97 6.24 4.11 56.1 2.88 3.16 12 51 32 9.91 3.67 1.93 8.18 5.13
Chasen Shreve 7.07 5.34 5.98 4.25 52.2 3.93 5.12 2 57 28 10.59 4.61 0.34 9.83 4.83
Luis Avilan 6.93 4.39 6.56 4.02 45.1 3.77 3.09 8 45 31 10.13 3.57 1.60 8.98 6.19
David Hernandez 6.85 4.22 6.75 4.12 64 2.53 3.38 10 54 34 9.14 2.39 1.41 7.59 4.78
Yusmeiro Petit 6.73 5.32 5.61 4.20 93 3.00 3.92 13 96 54 7.35 1.74 1.26 9.29 5.23
Blake Parker 6.69 3.81 6.92 4.04 66.1 3.26 4.40 8 62 42 9.5 2.58 1.09 8.44 5.72
Amir Garrett 6.62 3.86 6.57 3.81 63 4.29 3.89 6 62 41 10.14 3.57 0.86 8.86 5.86
Cory Gearrin 6.51 5.83 5.02 4.34 57.1 3.77 4.31 9 68 40 8.32 3.3 1.42 10.72 6.30
Matt Strahm 6.46 4.31 6.18 4.03 48 2.25 3.70 7 44 28 9.56 3.38 1.31 8.25 5.25
Edubray Ramos 6.45 5.12 5.70 4.37 42.2 2.32 3.54 9 38 23 8.86 3.16 1.92 8.10 4.91
Phil Maton 6.37 4.59 6.09 4.31 47.1 4.37 3.25 7 47 30 10.46 4.37 1.34 8.98 5.73
Nick Vincent 6.33 3.99 6.79 4.45 54.1 4.14 3.75 11 46 33 9.11 2.32 1.83 7.65 5.49
Kyle Barraclough 6.32 6.68 4.20 4.56 55.2 4.20 4.98 5 65 29 9.7 5.5 0.82 10.60 4.73
Steven Brault 6.21 7.59 3.29 4.67 65.2 4.25 4.74 7 88 40 9.18 5.89 0.97 12.15 5.52
Yonny Chirinos 6.21 5.36 4.86 4.01 57.1 2.83 3.34 3 69 38 7.06 2.2 0.47 10.88 5.99
Adam Warren 6.19 4.92 5.58 4.31 51.2 3.14 3.94 6 56 34 9.06 3.48 1.05 9.84 5.98
Tyler Clippard 6.15 2.14 8.24 4.23 67.2 3.46 4.05 17 32 33 11.17 2.93 2.28 4.29 4.42
Kelvin Herrera 6.06 4.69 5.68 4.31 44.1 2.44 3.95 4 47 28 7.71 2.03 0.82 9.59 5.71
Mychal Givens 6.01 4.37 5.75 4.11 76.2 3.99 3.07 12 74 49 9.27 3.52 1.42 8.74 5.79
Emilio Pagan 5.99 4.35 6.39 4.75 62 4.35 4.92 15 47 32 9.15 2.76 2.18 6.82 4.65
Burch Smith 5.96 6.68 4.21 4.93 55.2 5.82 5.05 4 65 28 9.22 5.01 0.65 10.60 4.57
Matt Moore 5.90 4.21 5.75 4.06 47 5.36 5.31 4 48 30 8.62 2.87 0.77 9.19 5.74
Drew Steckenrider 5.87 3.36 6.54 4.03 64.2 3.90 3.62 7 57 40 10.3 3.76 0.98 7.99 5.61
Danny Barnes 5.66 7.68 3.51 5.53 41 5.71 4.89 10 45 20 8.34 4.83 2.20 9.88 4.39
Randy Rosario 5.52 8.57 1.55 4.60 46.2 3.66 4.68 1 76 33 5.79 4.24 0.19 14.81 6.43
Jonathan Holder 5.41 4.15 5.82 4.56 65 3.18 2.98 12 55 37 8.17 2.35 1.66 7.62 5.12
Brian Flynn 5.41 8.98 1.43 5.00 75.2 4.04 4.28 4 124 53 5.59 4.16 0.48 14.84 6.34
Matt Magill 5.38 4.80 5.24 4.66 56.2 3.81 5.08 8 58 36 8.89 3.65 1.28 9.29 5.77
Cody Allen 5.26 3.49 6.32 4.55 67 4.70 4.56 8 51 33 10.75 4.43 1.07 6.85 4.43
Ryan Yarbrough 5.24 4.80 4.85 4.41 118.2 3.72 4.23 17 132 86 8.04 3.19 1.29 10.05 6.55
Justin Wilson 5.20 3.32 5.93 4.05 54.2 3.46 3.64 6 46 32 11.36 5.43 1.00 7.64 5.31
Wander Suero 5.14 3.43 6.04 4.33 47.2 3.59 3.48 4 45 31 8.87 2.83 0.76 8.58 5.91
Fernando Salas 5.06 5.85 3.82 4.61 40 4.50 4.34 4 49 27 6.75 2.93 0.90 11.03 6.08
Miguel Castro 4.92 9.41 0.86 5.35 83.2 3.66 4.95 12 124 49 5.92 5.06 1.30 13.41 5.30
Michael Lorenzen 4.80 6.57 2.67 4.44 67.1 3.21 4.05 4 96 51 6.55 3.88 0.54 12.88 6.84
Addison Reed 4.77 5.14 4.66 5.03 56 4.50 5.11 13 56 37 7.07 2.41 2.09 9.00 5.95
Taylor Williams 4.73 3.40 5.43 4.10 53 4.25 3.95 8 54 42 9.68 4.25 1.36 9.17 7.13
Hector Santiago 4.70 4.16 5.43 4.89 69.2 3.62 4.15 10 57 35 10.21 4.78 1.30 7.41 4.55
Hansel Robles 4.64 3.54 5.46 4.36 56 3.70 4.59 6 53 37 9.48 4.02 0.96 8.52 5.95
Daniel Hudson 4.27 3.60 5.00 4.33 45 4.20 4.45 5 48 35 8.6 3.6 1.00 9.60 7.00
Paul Sewald 4.14 3.21 5.60 4.67 56.1 6.07 4.23 8 51 39 9.27 3.67 1.28 8.18 6.26
Pierce Johnson 4.07 6.25 2.89 5.07 43.2 5.56 4.51 7 48 25 7.42 4.53 1.46 10.00 5.21
Michael Feliz 4.00 2.29 6.04 4.33 47.2 5.66 4.13 7 44 39 10.38 4.34 1.33 8.39 7.44
Shane Carle 3.60 5.71 2.28 4.39 63 2.86 3.54 4 86 50 6.14 3.86 0.57 12.29 7.14
Hunter Strickland 3.58 5.39 3.18 4.99 45.1 3.97 4.42 5 53 31 7.35 4.17 1.00 10.58 6.19
Louis Coleman 3.55 5.46 2.98 4.89 51.1 3.51 4.58 10 57 36 7.19 4.21 1.76 10.04 6.34
Carl Edwards Jr. 3.51 1.56 6.06 4.11 52 2.60 2.93 7 35 33 11.6 5.54 1.21 6.06 5.71
Greg Holland 2.92 4.88 2.91 4.87 46.1 4.66 3.83 6 52 33 9.13 6.22 1.17 10.15 6.44
Wandy Peralta 2.60 8.18 0.00 5.58 45.1 5.36 4.55 3 78 40 6.15 6.15 0.60 15.57 7.98
Harrison Musgrave 2.29 5.50 2.02 5.23 44.2 4.63 5.31 4 49 26 6.45 4.43 0.81 9.98 5.29
Buck Farmer 2.06 5.24 2.02 5.20 67 4.03 4.52 5 80 46 7.39 5.37 0.67 10.75 6.18
Mike Wright 2.02 3.11 3.78 4.87 78.2 5.38 4.80 10 88 71 7.67 3.89 1.15 10.13 8.17
Josh Fields 1.32 1.10 4.83 4.61 41 2.20 3.62 8 25 28 7.24 2.41 1.76 5.49 6.15
Jerry Blevins 0.61 2.91 3.54 5.84 40.2 4.65 4.56 12 26 25 8.41 4.87 2.69 5.82 5.60
Elieser Hernandez -1.66 3.13 1.32 6.11 40.2 5.31 4.71 7 35 28 5.75 4.43 1.57 7.84 6.27

It’s a lot to take in, I know, so I’ll give you some names to watch out for. Among the starters, you’ll notice Nick Pivetta ranks seventh overall in CONKR. Pivetta posted a 4.80 ERA in 2018, but pitched to a 3.41 xFIP and had the third best CON score among the top 10 ranked starters.

Another notable starting pitcher is Jon Gray, who ranks at 17 overall, thanks in large part to a 3.47 xFIP versus his 5.12 ERA.

Of course, the top of the chart isn’t completely filled with surprises, as Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander (among others) all appear in the top 20.

On the reliever side, it’s no surprise that Edwin Diaz sits atop the leader board. What might be surprising though, top 10 appearances by Matt Barnes, Tim Hill and Dan Otero—while the likes of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances rank 13th and 15th, respectively. Super reliever Josh Hader ranks 27th, penalized by the third-worst CON score out of 191 relievers.

Again, I don’t endorse this as anything other than a way to easily spot some pitchers who could bounce back and outperform their 2018 numbers (and maybe as a way to find those late round sleepers in your fantasy drafts). Conversely, you might spot some guys in danger of regression—I’m looking at you and your 3.11 ERA, Trevor Williams. If nothing else, I found it to be an interesting and simple way to look at pitchers from another vantage point.

More From Beyond the Box Score