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Earlier this season I took a look at the probability of the 2016 Baltimore Orioles setting the franchise record for home runs in a season. Fortunately for the Orioles, they are a game in front of the Red Sox for first in the AL East thanks in large part to their powerful lineup Steamer originally projected them for 222, but with a little hopeful maneuvering I had the Orioles finishing 2016 with 260 home runs.
The Orioles have a powerful lineup, one that leads the majors in ISO and home runs. Mark Trumbo finding his power stroke has led the way early in the season for Baltimore while Manny Machado, the expected leader of the middle of the order, has continued to establish himself as a cornerstone player in today's game. He is on pace for back-to-back 30 home run seasons.
As of June 20th, the Orioles lead the majors with 107 home runs, 150 away from equaling the franchise record. So what does Steamer have planned for them for the rest of 2016?
| Player | Original Projected HR | Current Projected HR Total |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wieters | 14 | 15 |
| Chris Davis | 37 | 38 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 19 | 24 |
| J.J. Hardy | 11 | 8 |
| Manny Machado | 27 | 33 |
| Joey Rickard | 3 | 9 |
| Adam Jones | 27 | 30 |
| Mark Trumbo | 25 | 37 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 27 | 26 |
| Caleb Joseph | 5 | 3 |
| Ryan Flaherty | 6 | 7 |
| Hyun-soo Kim | 3 | 3 |
| Nolan Reimold | 9 | 9 |
| Jimmy Paredes | 2 | 0 |
| Paul Janish | 1 | 0 |
| Francisco Pena | 2 | 2 |
| Henry Urrutia | 1 | 0 |
| Dariel Alvarez | 3 | 2 |
| 222 | 246 |
Steamer still has them falling short of the franchise record, but it is a lot closer than they originally had projected at the start of the season. Mark Trumbo has had the biggest improvement in the power department from the preseason predictions, but Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado are on pace to surpass Steamer's preseason forecast as well.
The eleven home runs they would need to make up is more manageable than the extra 36 home runs I needed to find them earlier in the year. There is the potential for the Orioles to make a mid-season acquisition, though many feel any upgrades should come in the rotation. The Orioles might also decide they need another bat to come off the bench down the stretch. While that player may not cover the remaining eleven home runs needed to set the franchise record, he can add a few home runs currently unaccounted for. In that case, the remaining home runs will be marginal and quite manageable. The Orioles have a powerful lineup, one that leads the majors in ISO along with home runs.
At the end of my first article focusing on the Orioles and the franchise home run record, 60% of you answered my poll saying they would set a new franchise record in 2016. How many of you still feel that way after the updated Steamer predictions?
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Carl Triano is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score and Minor League Ball.