Everyone is talking about Mike Trout. He's having a historically-awesome season, having already racked up boatloads of WAR. James Gentile already looked at one measurement of how great he is, yesterday. You can find literally dozens of articles in the sabermetric community talking about how unbelievably productive his play has been, how he's already cracked the top-25 of all Angels players in history in WAR, all that good stuff.
The real question is: How likely is it that Mike Trout will make the Hall of Fame?
Good news. I have a 100% completely infallible methodology to predict whether or not he will grace this fine historic institution, and you can see it after the jump. That's right. Eat your heart out, Nate Silver.
Mike Trout's Likelihood Of Making The Baseball Hall Of Fame
(based on the proportions of players in said Hall named after fish, as compared to those named after birds, quadriped mammals, and those who appear to be solely human)
Confirmed Humans (213):
Quadriped Mammals (11):
Ted Lyons [sic], Jimmie Foxx [sic], Mule Suttles, Billy Hermann, Nellie Fox, Buck Ewing, Billy Williams, Kid Nichols, Rabbit Maranville, Buck Leonard, Billy Hamilton
Turkey Stearnes, Goose Goslin, Chick Hafey, Robin Roberts, Robin Yount
Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge, Ray Schalk, Ray Brown
Either Quadriped Mammal or Bird - Currently Unclear (1):
So there you have it. The odds don't look good, folks. Only 1.7% of current players in the Hall of Fame have any kind of fish as their namesake. And even that number is heavily skewed towards dudes named "Ray," so I don't see any possible way Mike Trout can make up that much ground. He'd have a much better chance if he was named, say, "Bryce Harper."