Everyone is talking about Mike Trout. He's having a historically-awesome season, having already racked up boatloads of WAR. James Gentile already looked at one measurement of how great he is, yesterday. You can find literally dozens of articles in the sabermetric community talking about how unbelievably productive his play has been, how he's already cracked the top-25 of all Angels players in history in WAR, all that good stuff.
The real question is: How likely is it that Mike Trout will make the Hall of Fame?
Good news. I have a 100% completely infallible methodology to predict whether or not he will grace this fine historic institution, and you can see it after the jump. That's right. Eat your heart out, Nate Silver.
Mike Trout's Likelihood Of Making The Baseball Hall Of Fame
(based on the proportions of players in said Hall named after fish, as compared to those named after birds, quadriped mammals, and those who appear to be solely human)
Confirmed Humans (213):
Cap Anson, Lou Gehrig, George Sisler, Dan Brouthers, Frank Chance, Bill Terry, Hank Greenberg, Jake Beckley, George Kelley, Jim Bottomley, Roger Connor, Johnny Mize, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, Eddie Murray, Ben Taylor, Nap Lajoie, Eddie Collins, Rogers Hornsby, Johnny Evers, Frankie Frisch, Charlie Gehringer, Jackie Robinson, Bobby Doerr, Red Schoendienst, Joe Morgan, Rob Carew, Tony Lazzeri, Bid McPhee, Bill Mazeroski, Ryne Sandberg, Frank Grant, Joe Morgan, Roberto Alomar, Jimmy Collins, Pie Traynor, Frank Baker, Judy Johnson, Freddie Lindstrom, Eddie Mathews, George Kell, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Jud Wilson, Ron Santo, Roger Bresnahan, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Gabby Hartnett, Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra (close!), Josh Gibson, Rick Ferrell, Ernie Lombardi, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Gary Carter, Biz Mackey, Louis Santop, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Hugh Duffy, Joe DiMaggio, Max Carey, Edd Roush, Lloyd Waner, Earle Combs, Cool Papa Bell, Mickey Mantle, Earl Averill, Oscar Charleston, Willie Mays, Hack Wilson, Chuck Klein, Duke Snider, Richie Ashburn, Larry Doby, Kirby Puckett, Willard Brown, Pete Hill, Cristobal Torriente, Fred Clarke, Ed Delahanty, Jim O'Rourke, Jesse Burkett, Al Simmons (Spawn?), Zack Wheat, Heinie Manush, Ted Williams, Joe Medwick (close!), Stan Musial, Joe Kelley, Monte Irvin, Ralph Kiner, Lou Brock, Willie Stargell, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Cy Young, Grover Alexander, Charles Radbourn (close!), Jack Chesboro, Joe McGinnity, Eddie Plank, Rube Waddell, Ed Walsh, Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Herb Pennock, Mordecai Brown, Chief Bender, Dizzy Dean, Dazzy Vance, Bob Feller, John Clarkson, Eppa Rixey, Red Faber, Burleigh Grimes, Tim Keefe, Pud Galvin, Red Ruffing, Stan Coveleski, Waite Hoyt, Jesse Haines, Rube Marquard, Satchel Paige, Lefty Gomez, Sandy Koufax, Early Wynn, Warren Spahn, Mickey Welch, Whitey Ford, Bob Lemon, Martin Dihigo, Amos Rusie, Addie Joss, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale, Hoyt Wilhelm, Jim Palmer, Ferguson Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, Rollie Fingers, Hal Newhouser, Steve Carlton, Leon Day, Vic Willis, Jim Bunning (kinda close!), Bill Foster, Phil Niekro, Bullet Rogan, Don Sutton, Nolan Ryan, Joe Williams, Hilton Smith, Dennis Eckersley, Andy Cooper, Jose Mendez, Bruce Sutter, Rich Gossage (close!), Bert Blyleven, Babe Ruth, Willie Keeler, King Kelly, Tommy McCarthy, Mel Ott (close!), Harry Heilmann, Paul Waner, Sam Crawford, Elmer Flick, Sam Rice, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Ross Youngs, Roberto Clemente, Sam Thompson, Al Kaline, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Enos Slaughter, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn, Honus Wagner, Hugh Jennings, Joe Tinker, Bobby Wallace, Joe Cronin, Luke Appling, John Ward, Lou Boudreau, Dave Bancroft, Ernie Banks, Pop Lloyd, Joe Sewell, Travis Jackson, Luis Aparicio, Pee Wee Reese, Arky Vaughan, Phil Rizzuto, Willie Wells, George Davis, Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Barry Larkin
Quadriped Mammals (11):
Ted Lyons [sic], Jimmie Foxx [sic], Mule Suttles, Billy Hermann, Nellie Fox, Buck Ewing, Billy Williams, Kid Nichols, Rabbit Maranville, Buck Leonard, Billy Hamilton
Birds (5):
Turkey Stearnes, Goose Goslin, Chick Hafey, Robin Roberts, Robin Yount
Fish (4):
Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge, Ray Schalk, Ray Brown
Either Quadriped Mammal or Bird - Currently Unclear (1):
Tom Seaver
CONCLUSION
So there you have it. The odds don't look good, folks. Only 1.7% of current players in the Hall of Fame have any kind of fish as their namesake. And even that number is heavily skewed towards dudes named "Ray," so I don't see any possible way Mike Trout can make up that much ground. He'd have a much better chance if he was named, say, "Bryce Harper."
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