(A Very Different Way Of Looking At) Mike Trout's Chances Of Making The Hall Of Fame
Everyone is talking about Mike Trout. He's having a historically-awesome season, having already racked up boatloads of WAR. James Gentile already looked at one measurement of how great he is, yesterday. You can find literally dozens of articles in the sabermetric community talking about how unbelievably productive his play has been, how he's already cracked the top-25 of all Angels players in history in WAR, all that good stuff.
The real question is: How likely is it that Mike Trout will make the Hall of Fame?
Good news. I have a 100% completely infallible methodology to predict whether or not he will grace this fine historic institution, and you can see it after the jump. That's right. Eat your heart out, Nate Silver.
Mike Trout's Likelihood Of Making The Baseball Hall Of Fame
(based on the proportions of players in said Hall named after fish, as compared to those named after birds, quadriped mammals, and those who appear to be solely human)
Confirmed Humans (213):
Quadriped Mammals (11):
Ted Lyons [sic], Jimmie Foxx [sic], Mule Suttles, Billy Hermann, Nellie Fox, Buck Ewing, Billy Williams, Kid Nichols, Rabbit Maranville, Buck Leonard, Billy Hamilton
Birds (5):
Turkey Stearnes, Goose Goslin, Chick Hafey, Robin Roberts, Robin Yount
Fish (4):
Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge, Ray Schalk, Ray Brown
Either Quadriped Mammal or Bird - Currently Unclear (1):
Tom Seaver
CONCLUSION
So there you have it. The odds don't look good, folks. Only 1.7% of current players in the Hall of Fame have any kind of fish as their namesake. And even that number is heavily skewed towards dudes named "Ray," so I don't see any possible way Mike Trout can make up that much ground. He'd have a much better chance if he was named, say, "Bryce Harper."
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Haven't you ever heard of a harp[er] seal or a harp[er] eagle?
Check and Mate
www.anddownthestretchtheycome.com
by TFTribe on Sep 11, 2025 4:57 PM EDT reply actions
Well played, sir.
But I was DANGEROUSLY specific with names in this post.
Twitter: @bgrosnick
Editor at Beyond The Box Score
Columnist at RotoAuthority
by Bryan Grosnick on Sep 11, 2025 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Catfish Hunter
Is not a fish, but rather a hunter of them, which is the antithesis of a fish in the hall of fame.
Benevolent despot, Hustle Belt — SBN's MAC blog
Video jokes, Bless You Boys
by Matt Sussman on Sep 11, 2025 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
Looks like Trout's chances just went down.
Perhaps this explains the lack of HoF-level fish?
Twitter: @bgrosnick
Editor at Beyond The Box Score
Columnist at RotoAuthority
by Bryan Grosnick on Sep 11, 2025 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
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