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I've always enjoyed the idea of comparing pitchers' peaks, rather than simply their careers as a whole. It seems to me that if you want to get into the proverbial debate of "If you had to pick one pitcher for one game to save the world, who would it be?" then it would make most sense to choose that pitcher with the highest level of performance over a period of time that was just long enough to rule out fluke, but short enough to escape the effects of common wear-and-tear of the arm, aging, or nagging injury.
This isn't really so much of a concern with position players-- as their season-to-season performances seem significantly less volatile. With pitchers, however, there seem to be many more cases of elite talent flame-out. I'm thinking of pitchers like Doc Gooden and even Sandy Koufax-- whose performances were absolutely other-worldly for an extended period of time, but then sadly cut short by all the inherent dangers of throwing a baseball.
I've put together a few tables then, illustrating the greatest 3-year, 4-year and 5-year peaks for starting pitchers based on park-adjusted, league-adjusted ERA+. Let's start small with the greatest 3-year peaks for pitchers with at least 100 IP in each of those 3 seasons:
GREATEST 3-YEAR PEAKS BY ERA+
# | NAME | Years | AGE | 3Y_IP | 3Y_ERA+ |
1 | Pedro Martinez | 99--01 | 28 | 547 | 243 |
2 | Pedro Martinez | 00--02 | 29 | 533 | 227 |
3 | Greg Maddux | 93--95 | 28 | 678.7 | 220 |
4 | Pedro Martinez | 98--00 | 27 | 664 | 219 |
5 | Walter Johnson | 11--13 | 24 | 1037.3 | 218 |
6 | Walter Johnson | 12--14 | 25 | 1086.7 | 214 |
7 | Greg Maddux | 94--96 | 29 | 656.7 | 213 |
8 | Pedro Martinez | 01--03 | 30 | 502.7 | 202 |
9 | Pedro Martinez | 97--99 | 26 | 688.3 | 202 |
10 | Walter Johnson | 10--12 | 23 | 1061.3 | 198 |
Obviously, with all these overlapping time periods we shouldn't see too many changes once we extend the scope of our search to a 4-year Peak:
GREATEST 4-YEAR PEAKS BY ERA+
# | NAME | Years | AGE | 4Y_IP | 4Y_ERA+ |
1 | Pedro Martinez | 99--02 | 28 | 746.3 | 231 |
2 | Pedro Martinez | 00--03 | 29 | 719.7 | 223 |
3 | Pedro Martinez | 97--00 | 26 | 905.3 | 219 |
4 | Pedro Martinez | 98--01 | 27 | 780.7 | 213 |
5 | Walter Johnson | 10--13 | 23 | 1407.3 | 210 |
6 | Walter Johnson | 12--15 | 25 | 1423.3 | 208 |
7 | Greg Maddux | 94--97 | 29 | 889.3 | 207 |
8 | Greg Maddux | 92--95 | 27 | 946.7 | 204 |
9 | Walter Johnson | 11--14 | 24 | 1409 | 203 |
10 | Greg Maddux | 93--96 | 28 | 923.7 | 200 |
In fact, it's exactly the same three names. There are a few changes: Pedro manages to steal the top 4 slots, and Walter Johnson makes some headway on Maddog. Maddux, whose 93-95 stretch once stood proudly at #3, is now forced to engulf his painfully inferior 1992 season and all the damage that it's league-leading 166 ERA+ brings with it. If you're bringing a 166 ERA+ to this party, you better be prepared to place 7th.
As it turns out, these three pitchers continue to hog the top ten for the 5-Year, 6-Year and 7-year Peaks of all-time as well. (Don't believe me? Click here if you got the guts. I would've kept going to 8-year samples but I was b.o.r.e.d. of seeing just Pedro/Maddux/Walter by that point.)
So, in order to make room for some of the other one billion pitchers in baseball history, allow me to disqualify a pitcher after his first and best showing from this point on:
GREATEST 3-YEAR PEAKS BY ERA+
# | NAME | Years | AGE | 3Y_IP | 3Y_ERA+ |
1 | Pedro Martinez | 99--01 | 28 | 547 | 243 |
2 | Greg Maddux | 93--95 | 28 | 678.7 | 220 |
3 | Walter Johnson | 11--13 | 24 | 1037.3 | 218 |
4 | Mordecai Brown | 06--08 | 30 | 822.7 | 191 |
5 | Randy Johnson | 00--02 | 37 | 758.3 | 189 |
6 | Lefty Grove | 30--32 | 31 | 871.3 | 185 |
7 | Roger Clemens | 04--06 | 42 | 539 | 181 |
8 | Hal Newhouser | 44--46 | 24 | 918.3 | 180 |
9 | Dick Radatz | 62--64 | 26 | 414 | 180 |
10 | Pete Alexander | 15--17 | 29 | 1153.3 | 178 |
We finally get rolling, then, with dead-ball era Hall of Famer Three Finger Brown, who makes #4 primarily on the strength of his 1906 season in which he threw 277 innings with a 253 ERA+. Randy Johnson and his mid-career renaissance ranks as the 5th best player-peak at almost the same exact time Pedro was honoring us with the best peak ever. Lefty Grove also came late to the party and but then went on a historic stretch beginning in his age-30 season. Roger Clemens topped his 1990-1992 run once he turned 41 years of age, but beyond his peculiar timing The Rocket's presence here isn't at all a surprise.
But it's Hal Newhuser that jumps off the screen, isn't it? Obviously Hal was taking advantage of the depletion of the player-pool during WWII, but with some modest ERA's in '47 and '48 he still manages to hang around at #11 and #10 in our 4-year and 5-year queries:
GREATEST 4-YEAR PEAKS BY ERA+
# | NAME | Years | AGE | 4Y_IP | 4Y_ERA+ |
1 | Pedro Martinez | 99--02 | 28 | 746.3 | 231 |
2 | Walter Johnson | 10--13 | 23 | 1407.3 | 210 |
3 | Greg Maddux | 94--97 | 29 | 889.3 | 207 |
4 | Mordecai Brown | 06--09 | 30 | 1165.3 | 191 |
5 | Randy Johnson | 99--02 | 36 | 1030 | 188 |
6 | Lefty Grove | 29--32 | 30 | 1146.7 | 176 |
7 | Christy Mathewson | 08--11 | 28 | 1291.3 | 174 |
8 | Sandy Koufax | 63--66 | 28 | 1192.7 | 172 |
9 | Dan Quisenberry | 82--85 | 30 | 534 | 172 |
10 | Ed Walsh | 07--10 | 28 | 1486.3 | 166 |
Dick Radatz also gets bumped out of the top ten in the 4-year sample as the follow-up to his stellar 3 year run was a disappointing 96 ERA+ in 1965. His absence then makes room for a pair of Hall of Famers in Sandy Koufax and The Christian Gentleman, and then-- wait a minute. Who's this? Dan Quisenberry! I had intended for this post to be held strictly to starting pitchers, but he regularly crossed the 100 inning threshold from 1982-1985 with some spectacular displays of run-prevention in the late-innings, so I'll let him slide.
GREATEST 5-YEAR PEAKS BY ERA+
# | NAME | Years | AGE | 5Y_IP | 5Y_ERA+ |
1 | Pedro Martinez | 99--03 | 29 | 933 | 227 |
2 | Greg Maddux | 94--98 | 30 | 1140.3 | 202 |
3 | Walter Johnson | 11--15 | 25 | 1745.7 | 200 |
4 | Mordecai Brown | 06--10 | 31 | 1460.7 | 182 |
5 | Randy Johnson | 98--02 | 36 | 1274.3 | 177 |
6 | Lefty Grove | 35--39 | 37 | 1143 | 173 |
7 | Christy Mathewson | 08--12 | 29 | 1601.3 | 171 |
8 | Sandy Koufax | 62--66 | 28 | 1377 | 168 |
9 | Kevin Brown | 96--00 | 33 | 1209.7 | 165 |
10 | Hal Newhouser | 42--46 | 23 | 1297.7 | 164 |
Kevin Brown joining the group at #9 I find particularly interesting. His 5-year stretch of a 165 ERA+ is far more impressive than those of some very celebrated Hall of Fame hurlers. Take Nolan Ryan, for instance, who never topped more than 122 ERA+ in any given 5-year period.
Doc Gooden's best showing, incidentally, was his first 3-year sample which took place from1984-1986 when he posted a 155 ERA+.
Johann Santana's 5-year run from 2002-2006 shows up as 13th among the 5-year samples. His season, along with Clemens's 04-06 represent the two most recent historical peaks.
Once again, though, when we look at Pedro at the top of our final 5-year sample, we see that he has far and away the fewest inning totals of any of these players and that is something we can't completely ignore in good conscience. To account for this, then, next week we'll take a look at the greatest pitching peaks as determined by rWAR.
ERA+ figures may differ slightly (at most a point or two) from those of B-Ref's due to their implementation of "customized" park factors.
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