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Tuesday's Saber-Links

Here's Tuesday's edition of Saber-Links:

Dave Schoenfield of ESPN points out Aroldis Chapman's recent velocity decline: Aroldis Chapman's velocity in decline - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

It's not an issue yet, but Chapman has been so dominant that two poor outings in a row -- with a significant decline in his velocity -- raises a red flag. I'm guessing we won't see him for a few days. Pay attention to his next outing.

Jeff Moore of The Hardball Times previews the Arizona Fall League: Arizona Fall League preview--THT

In the end, the AFL is a lot like Vegas. It's a lot of fun and a great experience, but you just hope everyone comes out of it without getting hurt or mentally damaged. After all, what happens in the AFL stays there.

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs looks at the correlation between wins and payroll for this season: 2012 Payrolls and Wins | FanGraphs Baseball

Breaking it down into three tiers, the results are even more obvious. Here are the average payrolls and average winning percentages for each payroll grouping: Top 10: $140 million, .525 Win% Middle 10: $88 million, .511 Win% Bottom 10: $66 million, .464 Win%

C. Trent Rosecrans writes about evaluating managers in a guest post for Baseball Prospectus: Baseball Prospectus | Baseball ProGUESTus: What the Insiders Say Makes a Good Manager

What does it all mean? It means the players believe there are things more important than a pitching change, a lineup, or any other routine in-game decision—and if the players do believe that, it’s important that a manager can instill that kind of belief. I’m not voting for Manager of the Year this year, and I’m actually happy that I won’t be—as difficult as it is to determine the most deserving candidates in the other categories, at least there are statistics that can help me make that call. There are ways to analyze results and evaluate managers from the outside, but I’m not so sure that there are definite conclusions to be drawn about which manager has done the best job.