Future Schedule Balance

by stvfres on Jun 15, 2025 2:40 PM EDT

As we all know, beginning in 2013, the Houston Astros move to the AL West, thus creating two 15-team leagues. An obvious consequence of this will be interleague play all year (At least one interleague series per week). Also, with the addition of the second wild card, the cry of schedule imbalance (Especially in the East divisions), becomes louder and potentially more important.

What would be the best way to balance the schedule? Here are just a couple of ideas that I've messed with. Now, these scenarios might not actually be realistic due to actual real life scheduling concerns. These are just proposed breakdowns of number of games against your division, rest of the league, and interleague.

29x5 + 9 or 17

In this scenario, teams play every other team 5 times, plus 9 or 17 extra games in your division (2 or 4 games against each plus 1 extra). This yields either a 154 or 162 game season. Pros: About as close as we can get to perfect balance across the entire majors. Cons: The awkward 5-game or 2-game series (The latter in a 3-and-2 format) No rivalries period.

15x4 + 10x7 + 4x8

4 teams in your division 8 times, other 10 teams in your league 7 teams, each team in the other league 4 times for exactly 162. Pros: Strongly balanced within each league. Series makeup not difficult (4, 4-3, 4-4). Cons: Some loss of rivalries, though not as extreme as the first option. Now, Yankees-Red Sox (Or Cardinals-Cubs or Dodgers Giants) play only 8 times a year instead of 18.

15x4 + 10x6 + 4x10

You play each team in your division 10 times, every other league team 6 times, and 4 games against each team in the other league for 160. If 162 or 154 is desired, 2 games in the division could be gained. Pros: Still reasonably balanced while maintaining divisional rivalries a little more. Cons: Strong division teams take a slight hit. Uneven number of home series against each team in the division (Assuming 3-3-4 format).

24 Interleague + 10x7/8 + 4x15

24 interleague games are played, presumably selected by some sort of RPI-type system to ensure a balanced schedule (Say, the average W% in the previous year of the teams is .500 or something). 7 or 8 games are played against the rest of your league (2 teams get 7, 8 get 8), plus 15 against your division. Pros: Divisional rivalries are still strongly present. Very similar to the current format, thus satsifying traditionalists. Cons: Assigning of interleague matchups could go wrong. This is very similar to the current format (Yes, that could be good or bad), meaning still not much balance.

So, what do you think? Have you heard anything about what plan the MLB is coming up with? Which method do you prefer? As a fan of two East division teams, I prefer the 15x4 + 10x7 +4x8, as this gets us out of the East as much as possible.

One final Addendum

One final note: After a little quick calculation which might be a little off (I didn't extensively check my coding), the standard deviation (A measure of the difference between opponent's win percentage) for opponents win percentage were calculated. For the four plans, based on the 2011 records, we have

29x5+17: 0.0037, 1/2 a win

15x4 + 10x7 + 4x8: 0.0108, 1 3/4 wins

15x4 + 10x6 + 4x10 + 2: 0.0140, 2 1/4 wins

24 Interleague + 10x7/8 + 4x15: 0.0203 3 1/4 wins

Poll

Which scheduling method above do you prefer?

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Personally

I’d like 15×3 + 10×6 + 57 Division games (14 to15 games against each division member). I think the basis should be mostly 3 games series except within the division since too many 4 game series would introduce a lot of awkward wrap-around series (Friday to Monday).

3 games series can be played against interleague foes, and they would alternate home and away every other year. For same-league, non-division foes, two 3 game series can be played home and away every year. That leaves 57 games to be split among the division rivals. This way, every team can play every other team in at least one series and it removes all schedule bias against non-division opponents.

I feel like I proved myself....so there’s no reason for me to be sitting in Triple-A...It’s about making the team, but if...I can control my third pitch and have a decent fourth pitch, then there’s no reason I shouldn’t pitch in the big leagues somewhere. If they don’t have room for me here, then there’s no reason they shouldn’t trade me or just do something with me.

by Beachy Keen on Jun 15, 2025 5:26 PM EDT reply actions

The only thing I don't love about this is...

The 57 division games. There’s a difference between playing 57 games against the AL East than the AL Central, or NL East and NL Central (As I said, I’m heavily biased, rooting for two East division teams), so I’d want to get out of the East as much as possible. Considering I’d guess you’re a Braves fan (Given Beachy Keen), I’d think you’d prefer a few extra games against the Pirates and Cubs rather than with the Nats, Marlins, and Phillies. And with two Wild Cards, if we could get the highest balance within the AL and within the NL, the wild card will be as unbiased as possible. I might have to look at the average win percentage of opponents by plan to see which would provide the smallest variance.

by stvfres on Jun 15, 2025 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Well we already play 18-19 games within the division

Moving it to 14-15 is a step in the right direction as is having4 more wild card spots. I am a Braves fan and it is difficult to face the East teams so much, but I think the majority of games should be played within the division to keep important rivalries and so that there is a good sample size of games against rivals so you can see have a meaningful record against them (For example, going 3-3 or 4-2 against the Phillies wouldn’t prove much as opposed to 7-7 or 10-4) If that presents some schedule bias, then so be it

by Beachy Keen on Jun 16, 2025 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

having more*

by Beachy Keen on Jun 16, 2025 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'll grant that

I’ll grant that 15 is better than 18. As a Braves fan, I just don’t want to see a 86-76 Reds/Brewers team beat out a 85-77 Braves team for a Wild Card where the Reds get 30 games against the Cubs and Pirates (The Central’s two worst), and the Braves get 30 against the Phillies and Marlins (Who are a lot better than the Cubs and Pirates). Or in the AL where the disparity between East and Central is even larger. Maybe 12 games against the division opponents (4 series), one 3-game interleague series against each (Home and home every other year), and 7 games against non-division opponents (One team only gets 6 games).

by stvfres on Jun 17, 2025 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Can all of these options provide for interleague every day?

That right now is the biggest hang-up for scheduling. If we added two teams, went to 4 4-team division, we could get rid of the wild card, and interleague play. 18 times against divisionmates, 9 time against other 12 teams in league, 162 games.

by cookiedabookie on Jun 15, 2025 10:14 PM EDT reply actions