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Giancarlo Stanton is the favorite to win the Home Run Derby

The odds are in his favor, but not by much.

Miami Marlins v New York Mets Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Giancarlo Stanton may be having a down year at only a 115 wRC+, but his .258 ISO isn’t the lowest of his career. Stanton is tied with Michael Saunders at 18th in ISO among qualified hitters, and it’s taking a big breakout season from Saunders just to get to that point. Stanton can still bring the wood and has already hit four homers in July in only 29 plate appearances. He hit four homers in all of May and only three in June.

This would be why Stanton is the odds-on favorite to win the Home Run Derby according to odds courtesy of Bovada. At 13/4, though, Stanton’s chances of winning are not particularly strong.

Part of that is likely due to another slugger having a breakout season that seems to be for real — Mark Trumbo. His 15/4 odds are right behind Stanton. Trumbo has launched 27 bombs and sports a .290 ISO, both well on pace for career highs. His 138 wRC+ is by far the best of his career. He’ll present a strong challenge to Stanton for the crown.

Here are the full odds to win and the first-round matchups from Bovada:

2016 Home Run Derby - Odds to Win

Giancarlo Stanton 13/4

Mark Trumbo 15/4

Wil Myers 6/1

Todd Frazier 6/1

Adam Duvall 7/1

Robinson Cano 7/1

Carlos Gonzalez 15/2

Corey Seager 9/1

First Round Matchups

2016 Home Run Derby - 1st round matchup

Corey Seager +145 (29/20)

Mark Trumbo -175 (4/7)

Home Run Derby - 1st round matchup

Robinson Cano +135 (27/20)

Giancarlo Stanton -175 (4/7)

Home Run Derby - 1st round matchup

Adam Duvall +110 (11/10)

Wil Myers -150 (2/3)

Home Run Derby - 1st round matchup

Todd Frazier -140 (5/7)

Carlos Gonazlez EVEN (1/1)