Phil Hughes has signed an extension with the Twins that allots him an extra $42 million and three more years on his deal. Hughes originally had two years and $16 million dollars left on his contract, but Minnesota seems to have seen fit to reward the 28-year old right-hander for his sparkling 2014 campaign. Hughes famously posted the best strikeout to walk ratio (K/BB) of all time this past season, a ridiculous 11.63 mark. For some simpler context on that stat, Hughes only walked 16 men in 209.2 innings pitched. The deal brings his total guaranteed salary over the next five years to $58 million.

Don’t Cry for Me, New York City.

It’s a remarkable turnaround, especially for members of the Yankees fandom like myself. Hughes had a mountain of pedigree as a prospect, but never quite put it together in New York. His ultra-flyballing tendencies were a death sentence at Yankee Stadium, despite periods of success both in the rotation and in the bullpen. However, Hughes actually had a far worse ERA and HR/9 (4.25 and 0.93) at home in spacious Target Field, and shined on the road (2.78 and 0.43).

So how exactly did Phil Hughes go from bust to the 50 million dollar man? It’s not as mysterious as one would think. A huge part of Hughes’ problem in New York was his constant tinkering with his pitch repertoire. Over the course of his career, Hughes has used no fewer than seven (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, splitter!) different pitches at the Major League level according to Brooks Baseball. Those pitches have faded in and out of favor over time, and to varying degrees. In 2014, however, Hughes found the answer he had desperately been seeking.

Are You There, God? It’s Me, Phil.

Whether by the grace of the baseball pantheon or the suggestion of now former Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson, Hughes decided to use a four-pitch repertoire consisting of four-seam fastballs, curveballs, a new-and-improved cutter, and a sprinkling of sinkers. The changeup also made a few brief appearances in April, but was quickly scrapped. The results are hard to argue with.

SIERA, Matt Swartz’s shiny new(ish) ERA estimator, says that Hughes’ 3.52 ERA isn’t an accurate assessment of what he accomplished in his first year of Minnesota pitching. No, SIERA (which is basically a park-adjusted version of FIP on crack and sporting a degree from MIT) says that Hughes actually pitched like a guy with a 3.17 ERA. To make a shaky comparison, the man closest to a 3.17 ERA in 2014 was Max Sherzer, coming in at 3.15 on the Richter scale.

Before I’m tarred and feathered for making a Phil Hughes-to-Max Scherzer comp, these two men are very different pitchers. SIERA says Scherzer pitched to a wonderful 2.98 mark, as we would expect. Max Scherzer is quite likely a better pitcher than Hughes, and I was simply providing context for Hughes’ SIERA mark. If we’re going to be a bit more scientific, Hughes’ 3.17 SIERA sandwiches him between Alex Wood (3.16) and Garrett Richards (3.20) on the leaderboard.

Dr. Phil or Mr. Hughes?

Here’s the important part that all the Minnesota fans reading this really care about. When looking at the dollars and cents attached to this contract, in addition to the years, you have to wonder if this was finally the year Hughes put it all together. We’ve been burned before, though, and it’s a mighty scary thing to think about when one considers that the Hughes of old could rear his ugly head again.

So, will the real Phil Hughes please stand up? FIP, xFIP and SIERA all agree that there was nothing particularly unsustainable about Hughes’ performance this year. It’s not like he was the beneficiary of some BABIP wizardry either, as his .324 mark was actually one of the higher scores of his career. His record-setting K/BB is proof that his wild success and 6.1 fWAR of value were almost entirely control-related, rather than products of sheer dumb luck.

Hughes’ problems of the past seem to be mostly mental. The constant tinkering with his pitch repertoire, the switch between relief and starting, the constant fear of surrendering soul-crushing homers in one’s own home park under the watchful eye of one of the harshest media environments in the world. These are all signs of Hughes being simply mentally overwhelmed by Yankee pinstripes. That’s perfectly understandable, and nobody should think less of him for it. There’s an unfair amount of pressure put on top prospects to immediately excel, and Hughes is living proof of that. Nice quiet Minnesota is a perfect place for Hughes to find himself, and he’s done just that. If you believe that he’ll keep that astronomical K/BB going forward, well, then I’ve got an Alex Rodriguez to sell you. But Phil Hughes should be a nice steady presence in the Minnesota rotation going forward, and who knows? The guy’s only 28, we may be about to see him enter his prime. If he can build on this, it’s really time to start dreaming.

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball. Nicolas Stellini is an IWBAA-member writer. You can follow his prattling thoughts on Twitter (@StelliniTweets) for three easy payments of $19.95, plus shipping and handling.