Moore and Minaya Make Monster Moves
by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 10:53 AM EST
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PrintI couldn't help myself with the alliteration, sorry.
As for the big additions:
The Royals added outfielder Rick Ankiel on a one-year, $3.25M deal that includes a $6M mutual option for 2011. The Royals presumably will go with Ankiel, David DeJesus and Scott Podsednik in the outfield, pushing Jose Guillen to the DH spot and relegating Alberto Callaspo to undervalued trade bait status. Yippee.
As noted by FanGraphs' Matt Klaasen earlier in the month, Omar Minaya just can't help himself but to match Moore's every move. So I just sat by the computer and waited. Lucky for me, the news didn't take long to come in:
The Mets have agreed to trade for Gary Matthews Jr. of the Los Angeles Angels, the man who's due $23.5M through 2011. Even if the Angels eat a significant amount of the contract, this looks like one big knee jerk reaction to the Beltran surgery indicent.
Apparently, "The Contest" continues.
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Huh, I really like this Ankiel signing.
He’s at least average in a corner spot, and while his 2009 hitting line was awful, 2008 and 2007 provide solid hope for a rebound. And the price tag implies only a 1 WAR guy. Plus you get Guillen’s awful glove out of the outfield.
Glancing through all the nifty Fangraphs pitch and batted ball stats, nothing really pops out, he was just worse at everything. One thing might be that he swung more often outside the zone and made less contact.
Not that the Royals needed to block more of their hit-first prospects…
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The Ankiel signing is alright on it's own
but it’s questionable given the team’s current roster construction.
They now have Pods, Ankiel, DeJesus and Brian Anderson on ML deals, Getz and Callaspo at second base, and it pushes cheaper players who deserve opportunities, namely Kila Ka’aihue, Mitch Maier and Josh Fields, to AAA.
They would have been better off signing only Ankiel or Pods, letting Maier, Guillen and Callaspo share time in the LF/DH spots.
It just seems like now they’ve cornered themselves into a situation where they can’t possibly maximize the value of Callaspo, as they essentially announced that Getz is the new second baseman.
I just don’t really like either move.
I mean, did Omay forget about Angel Pagan or something?
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 12:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed with all of that, and
I’d question the value of a marginal win for the Royals in 2010 (and 2011 for the option).
Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 23, 2010 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
WTF
What do you have against Mitch Maier. He will give you basically the same production for 3 million less. Oh well. Maybe I can take up watching and following NASCAR this summer.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 22, 2010 12:33 PM EST reply actions
Others have made the good point that Ankiel's production is probably mostly reliant on his health.
And that’s something I (and probably most of us) really have no idea about.
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It comes down to a simple choice: when you’re the Royals, do you buy old, questionable talent and hope for a revival, or do you give the young talent a chance to see what they can do, and sometimes fall down?
The first seems safer, but will rarely (if ever) take you to the top. The second is risky, but wouldn’t you rather shoot for the moon than go out with a whimper?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 22, 2010 12:39 PM EST reply actions
the counterargument...
would be that they already tried it with Alex Gordon, but that’s just it: not all of them are going to be god’s gift to baseball.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 22, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
I agree Ankiel's questionable, but it's a high-upside question.
If he has a big 2010, that’s at least something for the fan base to rally around. Pods was the dumb move.
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by Sky Kalkman on Jan 22, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
what’s the ceiling on Ankiel, though?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 22, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I think we’ve seen his ceiling of 25 homers and a .330 OBP. He’s more likely to sit around 20-24 homers, .300 OBP, 7% BB / 25% K. Defense is okay, but is the Royals’ main problem outfield defense?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 22, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
We had one above average glove on the team: DeJesus
so yes, 2/3 of the outfield was a concern
does Anderson, Podzilla, and Ankiel solve that?
Hardly
Well, the entire team was poor defensively, but it was the infield that was the significant problem. You can get over middling defense in the outfield (look at the Red Sox). The point is, outfield defense is not where you start building a team.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 22, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know..
Gutierrez, Chavez and Langerhans made a pretty big difference in Seattle.
A lot of it depends on the nature of the pitching staff. If you have a bunch of fly ball guys, then outfield defense could very well be the priority.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
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by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 7:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Also depends on whether you plan on having the exact same pitching staff for an extended period of time…
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 22, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
But even if he reaches his ceiling
where do the Royals go from there?
They’ve wasted another potential year of development for the likes of Maier, Fields and Ka’aihue, and given their place on the win spectrum, even if he pans out they’re still a mid-70’s-win team.
Although I agree that the Ankiel move isn’t nearly on the level of idiocy as the Podsednik signing. At least with Ankiel there’s the big-time power potential. Podsednik is a below average defender that gets caught too much stealing for his exploits on the basepaths to have much value, and the remainder of his offensive game is completely dependent on a relatively hollow batting average.
I’m very interested to see what KC does with Callaspo now, he really has no place on that team anymore.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping
that Ankiel is flipped mid season, so in effect, he’s a stop gap to take the place of Jose Guillen
I don’t think any fan would see that as anything short of a great upgrade
and Callaspo was one of the most valuable players in 2009.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Let's not get on Minaya too much for this one
Yes, Pagan would be a fine player to hold the fort for Beltran before he returns from surgery, but apparently they don’t feel that way. OK, so that’s not smart. But they’re paying $2M of what’s left of Matthews’ contract. That’s asking for, at best, 1 WAR in two seasons, paid exactly like a bench player. To get him, they gave up a reliever of no import. It’s more of a neutral move to me.
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But GMJ is really a downgrade from Pagan
The Mets just gave up a reliever, however fungible, and $2M in order to downgrade their fourth outfielder role.
I just don’t see any possible angle to the deal in which the Mets just got better, Pagan is quite clearly the superior option, not to mention that he’s cheaper and younger.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Oh I agree with you
But the team in this case isn’t giving up a whole lot to get a bench player. What they do with him from there is another problem. Would you count on Matthews not getting 1 WAR in 2 years? Assuming the reliever is 0 WAR (I don’t know, maybe 0.2 WAR, no real difference), it’s like making a marginally poor signing for a team with a lot of money rather than a poor move outright.
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But he'll make for a pretty bad piece
It’s worth noting that he’s been worth -1.1 WAR since joining LA, and he’s been 1.6 wins below replacement level in the past two seasons.
It has nothing to do with how much the Mets paid, adding him for free would’ve been a questionable move.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 3:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Dayton is aiming for an all white lineup
1-Podsednik-CF
2-Bloomquist-ss
3-Maier-lf
4-Butler-1b
5-Gordon-3b
6-Ankiel-RF
7-Fields-DH
8-Getz-2b
9-Kendall-c
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
Well, someone has to take the place of the Red Sox
now that they’ve signed Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro to replace Bay, Lowell and Green/Lowrie. I just love the idea that any team would base their roster construction off of race, rather than winning, public relations and business stuff.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
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by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
That lineup is better than the one they have right now
Removing Guillen and Betancourt = awesome!
what happens to aviles though? he’s white enough.
hahahahahaha.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
Yeah, I really should not have said that.
I was saying Guillen and Betancourt are bad players, a well known fact which is irrelevant to their race, and how bad the Royals lineup is regardless of the Ankiel signing.
However, to be totally fair, Bloomquist and Fields are bad enough, so my post would be wrong anyway, and the removal of DeJesus and Aviles from the lineup would’ve made up for the positives of removing Guillen and Betancourt. And I don’t want or intend to make any race analysis of the Royals lineup.
My bad, that wasn’t intended to come off as inappropriate, and i should’ve thought before posting.
"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West
I disagree based on the Jeff Francoeur principle.
Anyone may repeat their glory days at any time.
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It's a lot easier
to repeat your glory days when you’re 25, as Francoeur was last season, than if you’re 35, which is GMJ’s Opening Day age.
And Francoeur was the same hitter in New York pretty much, his K/BB was actually worse with the Mets, he just benefited from a lucky BABIP after having an unlucky BABIP in Atlanta.
If you squint really hard, it almost looks like my name is Satchel Paige.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jan 22, 2010 5:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Scotty Pods did it, and he's not getting paid too much more.
It wouldn’t be bad if he was a 4th outfielder. If last year can carry over to this year than it’s worth it… he was in the upper half of players mentioned in this post value-wise last year and isn’t getting paid enough to make it a disaster.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 23, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Brian Sabean
is personally offended that his re-signing of Bengie Molina went unmentioned.
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“prone to surges and slumps, mostly at the plate”, lol. As opposed to????!!
"I am happy because I do not have unrealistic expectations"- Karma Ura...or an A's fan.
I believe in the old saying,
“speed doesn’t slump”. I don’t understand how you can slump as a fielder, but I’ve also never played MLB baseball.
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by DyeLongJustice on Jan 25, 2010 8:23 AM EST up reply actions
Defense and baserunning are prone to volatility just as everything else. Just because you might not be able to quantify it well
doesn’t mean it’s always the same. Besides, UZR shoots up and down for fielders all the time. Baserunning and defense are skills like hitting.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 25, 2010 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
I have a beef
with that speed does’nt slump thing, just last week I tried to steal home on a wild pitch and embrassingly fell 3 steps away from the plate… and got tagged out after I crawled two more steps.
DAMN YOU SPEED!
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