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How Much Do Park Factors Affect Team Success?

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We are all familiar with the idea that across major league baseball some parks favor hitters while some favor pitchers. The dimensions of the park combined with other features can increase or decrease the run scoring environment.

After opening Citi Field in 2009, the New York Mets saw a significant decline in their ability to score runs. The team averaged 681 runs scored per year from '09-'11 compared to 812 over the previous three seasons. Additionally, management worried that pitchers were developing bad habits while pitching at their spacious home park that led to worse performances on the road.

Let's set aside whether we think that reasoning is legitimate. The question I came away with was whether the kind of home park a team has increases or decreases their chances of winning games. If a team has a pitcher-friendly home park, does that create issues for them on the road that they cannot overcome? What about a hitter-friendly park?

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6 comments  | 

A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Pittsburgh Pirates


Pirates-window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Fifth in the series, we look at the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ranked 12th overall by John Sickels, they have 2 A-rated prospects in RHP Gerrit Cole and RHP Jameson Taillon, and 5 B-rated prospects in OF Josh Bell, OF Robbie Grossman, RHP Luis Heredia, RHP Kyle McPherson, and RHP Nick Kingham. Quite impressive as a good portion of their current lineup consisted of top prospects from 2009, as show in Sickels 2009 list. They did a pretty good job at keeping their farm system fresh in their higher levels of the minors.

With the Pirates, the question is, do you think the window for them is sooner than later?

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1 comment  | 

Detroit Tigers Top 12 Prospect Rankings

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  • Tier 1 (4 points): Major League Star -- Number One Starter
  • Tier 2 (3 points): Stand Out/Above Average Regular -- Number Two/Exceptional Three Starter
  • Tier 3 (2 points): Solid, Average, Every Day Regular -- Number Three/Solid Four Starter
  • Tier 4 (1 point): Bench/Below Average Regular -- Borderline Four/Number Five Starter/Relief Pitcher

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Most Career Pitching rWAR, 20th Century Pitchers with Career of 12 Years or Less

  1. Sandy Koufax (54.5)
  2. Joe McGinnity (53.7)
  3. Nap Rucker (41.7)
  4. Brad Radke (41.4)
  5. Addie Joss (40.9)

2 days ago Adam_tiny adarowski 3 comments

Did Hall of Fame's Founders Want Voters to Judge with Their Eyes?

More than a fortnight has passed since Barry Larkin was announced as the BBWAA's sole (regular-ballot) choice to be inducted into the hallowed halls of Cooperstown in July, but the memories of this year's version of the annual Hall of Fame debate firestorm remain.

Potential dopers aside, the most controversial candidate on this year's ballot was Jack Morris. In general, he had the support of writers who view the game more traditionally, while sabermetrically inclined analysts seemed to think he fell short. But beyond the tired arguments about whether a great Game 7 is more important than an underwhelming ERA+, there was another issue in play: Many of Morris' supporters cited his alleged intangible aura of greatness that could be understood only by having seen him pitch in a big game. As Jon Heyman so stridently put it:

i love the folks who never saw jack morris pitch who are certain he isnt hall of famer bec their stat guru said so

I bring this up not to malign Heyman but because it betrays a mistaken assumption about the balloting process: that writers' own observations of players were expected to be primary factors in their votes.

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4 comments  |  3 recs | 

A Graphic Look at the Window to Win: Chicago Cubs

Cubs_window_medium

Just in time for prospect season, we take a look at the idea of "windows" and a team's prime time to win. Inspired by what seems to be a once every three years rebuild for the Oakland Athletics, is there going to be a time where all their premier prospects hit and they'll have the best chance to win? Here we present the pleasures of trying to maximize production during one's service time.

Fourth in this series, we look at the Chicago Cubs. Ranked 20th overall by John Sickels, they have 3 B-rated prospects in 1B Anthony Rizzo, OF Brett Jackson, and 1B Dan Vogelbach and 2 B-rated pitchers on their way (RHP Trey McNutt and RHP Dillon Maples).

With rebuilding the philosophy moving forward, when are the Cubs best set up to compete?

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5 comments  |  1 recs | 

What Will the Tigers Do with Fielder, Martinez, and Cabrera after 2012?

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It is now being widely reported that the Detroit Tigers have swooped in and signed a deal with Prince Fielder for 9 years/$214M.

My first reaction is that this never gets close to being done if Victor Martinez doesn't suffer a freak ACL tear while working out. Martinez is out of action for the 2012 season, and the Tigers don't really have an impact bat in their system that projects to be comparable to Martinez in the near-term, but is still under contract through 2014. Virtually all of Martinez's value is tied up in his bat, so going forward his most likely home is at first base or designated hitter.

Of course, he won't be playing first, since preeminent slugger Miguel Cabrera is signed through 2015 and already occupies that position. The big question is what will the Tigers do with three, largely offensive players in Cabrera, Martinez, and Fielder in 2013 and 2014?

Poll
This was the right move for the Tigers in the:

  583 votes | Results

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4 comments  | 

The Astros added to their statistical strength in the front office, hiring Mike Fast, formerly of Baseball Prospectus to serve in the baseball operations department.

Fast, one of the foremost experts on pitch trajectory (PITCHf/x) data, has also written on HITf/x data for BP. Some of his latest writings have been on hit-and-run success, quantifying how much control pitchers have over batted balls and an analysis of hot and cold zones for hitters.

"We’re definitely excited to have someone with his background and interests," general manager Jeff Luhnow said. "It’s a lot of the same things that we’re interested in studying."

4 days ago Jbopp-kc_tiny Justin Bopp 1 comment

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