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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 3/2/19

Bryce Harper’s reduced present value; Vlad Jr.’s coming debut; the very competitive NL East

MLB: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Craig Edwards: Even though the deal was structured as he wanted, Bryce Harper may not have gotten a better deal than Manny Machado, or even Nolan Arenado. If you calculate the deals based on present value metrics, Harper could have taken a ten-year deal that was worth about the same as Machado, and instead took the years. It’s still a third of a billion dollars, but the extra years do deflate the value via inflation.

Baseball Prospectus | Jeff Wiser ($): Vlad Guerrero Jr., once the service time is right, will make his major league debut this season. He goes into esteemed company of prospects who made a debut at this age and ranking, such as Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Stanton, and even Harper. All of them put up 2+ WARP in their debuts, and there’s no reason to think that Guerrero’s 3.1 WARP projection is out of bounds.

The Ringer | Ben Lindbergh: With the addition of Harper, the Phillies are as competitive as ever, and the NL East should be the same. Four teams are going to vie for the title, and the Mets, Phillies, and Nationals added some of the most projected WAR of any team in baseball.