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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 11/2/19

The Astros on the list of great losers; a guide to qualifying offers; the Nats’ misleading odds

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MLB: ALCS-Houston Astros at New York Yankees Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Craig Edwards: The Astros, with their great regular season and close-to-great ending, join the pantheon of teams such as themselves, like the 1969 Orioles, or the 1998 Braves, or even the Dodgers this year, who failed to go all the way despite their record.

Baseball Prospectus | Matthew Trueblood ($): Qualifying offer season is here, and teams are already putting their proverbial ducks in a row. Some are guaranteed to get the offer, like Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, while others, like Didi Gregorius, are a tougher call on the team’s part to determine the value of the player, contract, and draft pick compared to letting them walk.

The Athletic | Eno Sarris ($): The Nationals improbably emerged from every sticky situation, and the odds were never in their favor. So should the odds be adjusted? One problem is assuming playoff odds based on the best five relievers used, which happened to be inaccurate as the Nationals used, say, Patrick Corbin in Game Seven. On the other hand teams are on average using more bullpen depth so it’s hard to say, but it’s clear the Nats bucked the trend.