Buyers Beware: Victor Martinez

Victor Martinez is coming off an amazing offensive year in which he put up career numbers, with perfect timing too, as he is hitting the open market for what will likely be his last big pay day. V-Mart put up a crazy 166 wRC+ (career high was 130 in 2011) campaign good for third best in all of baseball behind only McCutchen and Trout. This was not a luck filled season for Martinez either as he also had the best strikeout to walk ratio of his career while maintaining a BABIP perfectly in line with his career average. Not only did Martinez walk more than he struck out which is becoming very rare in this day of baseball but he only had 10 more strikeout than home runs in 2014.

Going forward, Steamer has Victor projected at a 3.2 Win season with a 138 wRC+,( Aprox 18-20 million dollar value) which is still very productive and valuable for any team. This all sounds pretty enticing for teams looking to make a splash in free agency this offseason. However if the contracts of guys like Hamilton, Pujols and Fielder have taught us anything, its that paying for what guys have done may not be the best way do to business. Instead think about what they will do going forward, and in Victor’s case this is the high water mark, there is no where to go but down. And while he may be one of the top free agents this offseason, paying big dollars and big term for an offense only player entering his age 36 season may not be the best investment.