Beyond the Box Score - The best non-tender free agent pickupsA Saber-Slanted Baseball Communityhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47305/boxscore-fv.png2016-12-05T13:00:01-05:00http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/rss/stream/136057952016-12-05T13:00:01-05:002016-12-05T13:00:01-05:00Why your team should sign Rubby de la Rosa
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<img alt="The Snakes won't have De La Rosa's venomous slider anymore. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/umJaiQesWUpu_Z7FudkY1bBLV0Q=/0x0:4915x3277/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/52131993/usa-today-9296324.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>The Snakes won't have De La Rosa's venomous slider anymore. | Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Diamondbacks let the righty walk after two years in the desert. But he took a big step forward in 2016. </p> <p><i>BtBS is profiling several prominent players who became free agents after their team didn't tender them a contract. For a full list, </i><a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13841754/non-tender-free-agent-hot-stove-ross-castillo-carter-revere-de-la-rosa?_ga=1.180712551.1716154314.1426459407">click here</a><i>. </i></p>
<p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> are moving in a new direction after several years wandering the (figurative) desert. New GM Mike Hazen didn't waste any time shaking things up: <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/11/24/13739736/dbacks-mariners-jean-segura-taijuan-walker-trade-hot-stove-mitch-haniger-ketel-marte-zac-curtis" target="_blank">He swung a trade</a> for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a>' <span>Taijuan Walker</span>, then <a target="_blank" href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/diamondbacks-non-tender-welington-castillo-rubby-de-la-rosa.html">cut ties with</a> veterans <span>Welington Castillo</span> and Rubby De La Rosa. After a 69-93 finish in a year when some thought the Diamondbacks could break through to the playoffs, a bit of late-autumn cleaning might make sense.</p>
<p>However, in tossing out Castillo's pungent bathwater, Hazen may have also disposed of a perfectly good baby in De La Rosa. (Yes, I know that's a strained metaphor, but given my colleague's <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13832618/welington-castillo-mike-hazen-non-tender-diamondbacks">egregious meat puns</a>, I think it's more than fair.) While he certainly didn't star in 2016, De La Rosa could have the talent to become a dependable mid-rotation starter.</p>
<p>An obvious issue arises with De La Rosa: health. Back in 2011, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/22658560/" target="_blank">he underwent Tommy John surgery</a> to treat an ailing elbow. Over the subsequent years, he managed to stay on the mound, but that changed in 2016 when <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/15777485/arizona-diamondbacks-place-shelby-miller-rubby-de-la-rosa-dl" target="_blank">his elbow flared up</a> again. After missing a few months, <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17653903/rubby-de-la-rosa-arizona-diamondbacks-stem-cell-injection-injured-pitching-elbow">he elected to try stem cell therapy</a> in September; his future for now is somewhat uncertain. If his elbow recuperates, though, he might be able to sustain this tantalizing trend:</p>
<p> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="DLRK" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tP45S6PMm9TnjK16GQATZM3oVwA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7586665/DLRK.0.png">
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<p>As it turns our, those strikeouts made him a pretty good pitcher. Prior to 2016, De La Rosa had a career DRA- of 104 and cFIP of 101. This season, though, he improved to an 82 DRA- and 85 cFIP, besting <span>Rick Porcello</span> and <span>Madison Bumgarner</span> (among many others) in both regards. Those results came over just 50.2 innings, and if he could maintain them over, say, 180, he'd be a welcome addition to any big-league rotation.</p>
<p>How did De La Rosa take this step forward? He started throwing his breaking ball a lot more often:</p>
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<img alt="DLRSlider" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/frair-DVrkin28spqC148hYmsm4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7586687/Brooksbaseball-Chart__2_.0.jpeg">
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<p>Out of 206 hurlers with at least 200 sliders, de la Rosa's ranked <a target="_blank" href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=SL%7C&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=18%7C19%7C20%7C&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=200&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=&is_barrel=&chk_pitch_type=on#results">28th</a> in swinging-strike rate at 22.2 percent; that clip obviously played a large role in his strikeout spike. The slider also had an immaculate 69.0 percent strike rate, which placed him <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=SL%7C&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=2%7C5%7C6%7C8%7C7%7C9%7C10%7C11%7C12%7C13%7C15%7C18%7C19%7C20%7C&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=200&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=&is_barrel=&chk_pitch_type=on#results" target="_blank">46th</a> in that sample. Thanks to that combination of strikes and whiffs, <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=13&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=15&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d">De La Rosa's slider was the best on the Diamondbacks</a> — even superior to that of <span>Zack Greinke</span>, his ace teammate.</p>
<p>Earlier in the season, before De La Rosa's injury sidelined him, Diamondbacks catcher <span>Chris Herrmann</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fmlb%2Fdiamondbacks%2F2016%2F05%2F03%2Fimproved-slider-aiding-arizona-diamondbacks-rubby-de-la-rosa%2F83902862%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.beyondtheboxscore.com%2F2016%2F12%2F5%2F13837394%2Frubby-de-la-rosa-diamondbacks-non-tender-free-agent-mlb-hot-stove-strikeouts-slider" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener">talked with the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro</a> about the slider. He cited improved command as a big factor in the slider's improvement, remarking that De La Rosa was "starting to get a good idea of where his ball is going now." <a target="_blank" href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=523989&b_hand=-1&time=year&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&gFilt=regular&pFilt=SL&startDate=&endDate=">Velocity's never been an issue</a> for De La Rosa's slider, so now that he can control it better, he's able to unleash it whenever he pleases.</p>
<p>Now, De La Rosa might not be able to continue pulling this off. <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/too-many-sliders/">Some evidence</a> suggests heavy slider usage can lead to injuries, which could explain the elbow maladies he's dealt with this year. Those could just be a coincidence, though. He's always had <a target="_blank" href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=523989&b_hand=-1&gFilt=regular&pFilt=FA&time=year&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=12/05/2016">a high-octane fastball</a>, and now that he's learned to pair that with a devastating slider, he's become an above-average major-league starter — a rare, and thus lucrative, occupation.</p>
<p>So why did Arizona part ways with De La Rosa? Perhaps they know something about his elbow the rest of us don't. Or maybe Hazen is following in the footsteps of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/ranking-the-five-worst-moves-of-the-dave-stewart-era-with-the-diamondbacks/">his short-sighted predecessor</a>. Whatever the reason, the righty's breakout in early 2016 makes him worth a one-year gamble for a team in need of a starter.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><i><b>. . .</b></i></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><i>Ryan Romano is the co-managing editor for <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/" target="_blank">Beyond the Box Score</a>. He also writes about the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Orioles</a> for <a href="http://www.camdendepot.blogspot.com" target="_blank">Camden Depot</a>, and about politics for <a href="http://www.dbknews.com" target="_blank">The Diamondback</a>. Follow him on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/triple_r_" target="_blank">Twitter</a> if you enjoy angry tweets about Maryland sports.</i></p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13837394/rubby-de-la-rosa-diamondbacks-non-tender-free-agent-mlb-hot-stove-strikeouts-sliderRyan Romano2016-12-05T12:00:02-05:002016-12-05T12:00:02-05:00Why your team should sign Ben Revere
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Hf_YYduQXqzdehNsDXWCAWq9Ypw=/0x0:5184x3456/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/52137481/usa-today-9561611.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Ben Revere was non-tendered due to a poor 2016 season, but might he be a bounceback candidate in 2017?</p> <p><i>BtBS is profiling several prominent players who became free agents after their team didn't tender them a contract. For the full list, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13841754/non-tender-free-agent-hot-stove-ross-castillo-carter-revere-de-la-rosa?_ga=1.180712551.1716154314.1426459407">click here</a>. </i></p>
<p>Not to say it wasn’t one of the more predictable moves this offseason, but on Friday the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Washington Nationals</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2016/12/02/nationals-non-tender-ben-revere-tender-danny-espinosa/?utm_term=.b2efda1123cd">non-tendered the contract</a> of <span>Ben Revere</span>, releasing him unto the wilderness that is free agency. Through service time Revere was not projected to enter the wild until next offseason, but that was before he put up a feeble .217/.260/.300 slash line in 375 plate appearances in 2016. That kind of offensive struggle helped persuade the Nationals to release him as opposed to paying him the $6.3 million <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html">MLB Trade Rumors</a> projected him to make through arbitration.</p>
<p>We’ve never seen Revere as a powerhouse at the plate, but he has often been thought of as a prototypical old-school leadoff hitter: a speed guy who hits for a high average. (If you still think like that, please read <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by">this</a> SEO masterpiece). You don’t <i>need</i> to know that, out of everyone who made at least 300 plate appearances last season, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a">Revere carried the 2<sup>nd</sup>-worst wRC+</a> to know he was bad. His slash line paints the same picture. He was bad.</p>
<p>Despite how inept Revere’s offensive production was last season, there is still a market for him. There’s always a market for speed guys, but before we go into why that might or might not be the case for Revere, let's dive into how he got to this position.</p>
<p>Revere has always been a guy who does not walk or strike out a ton. He makes a lot of contact and puts the ball in play, meaning his value is heavily tied to maintaining an above-average BABIP, as well as an at-least-decent OBP. At the same time, because Revere doesn’t have a great deal of power, he stands to benefit more from ground balls and line drives than fly balls. This is, of course, what we in the biz call a 'slap hitter.' Getting on base allows Revere to take advantage of his best skill, and this was something he was decent at from 2013-15. What changed, you ask? Most of that.</p>
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Season</th> <th align="center">PA</th> <th align="center">AVG</th> <th align="center">OBP</th> <th align="center">BABIP</th> <th align="center">LD%</th> <th align="center">GB%</th> <th align="center">FB%</th>
</tr>
<tr onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">2013</td>
<td align="center">336</td>
<td align="center">.305</td>
<td align="center">.338</td>
<td align="center">.344</td>
<td align="center">23.2%</td>
<td align="center">59.3%</td>
<td align="center">17.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">2014</td>
<td align="center">626</td>
<td align="center">.306</td>
<td align="center">.325</td>
<td align="center">.330</td>
<td align="center">21.0%</td>
<td align="center">64.7%</td>
<td align="center">14.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="center">2015</td>
<td align="center">634</td>
<td align="center">.306</td>
<td align="center">.342</td>
<td align="center">.338</td>
<td align="center">26.4%</td>
<td align="center">54.7%</td>
<td align="center">18.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">2016</td>
<td align="center">375</td>
<td align="center">.217</td>
<td align="center">.260</td>
<td align="center">.234</td>
<td align="center">18.1%</td>
<td align="center">55.3%</td>
<td align="center">26.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>So why would Revere put the ball in the air more last season, you ask? All he needs to do is put the ball on the ground and run, it seems so simple! Well, like most things in life, it is more complicated that it initially seems. If you recall, Revere suffered a <a href="http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sidelines-with-john-clay/article82024317.html" style="background-color: #ffffff;">torn oblique</a> on Opening Day last season. This injury sidelined him for the month of April and about a week of May, but there was evidence that the injury lingered for much longer than just the month Revere spent on the disabled list. As Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports <a href="http://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2016/11/could-the-nationals-give-revere-another-chance.html" style="background-color: #ffffff;">reported in late November</a>, Revere never felt entirely healthy:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>And consider that he pulled his oblique muscle on opening day, and despite returning from the disabled list a month later admitted at season’s end he never did fully heal.</p>
<p>"I know guys that have done it and they say it’s tough to come back that year from an oblique injury, their swings were just different," Revere said in September. "But it’s a lot easier the next year because they had time in the offseason to let it heal."</p>
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<p>A lingering oblique injury is bad for hitting, but it can also sap Revere’s money-maker: his speed. Obliques can be activated through various activities such as twisting or sprinting, and the latter causes a <a href="http://www.livestrong.com/article/531543-do-sprints-work-your-abs/">forceful contraction of the muscles</a> that helps generate power.</p>
<p>I know this might come as a shock, but I was not able to watch <i>every</i> game Ben Revere participated in. However, I do have access to a few stats that we could use to see if a lingering oblique injury could have caused Revere’s speed to decline.</p>
<p>For this, let's use five different metrics: UBR, wSB, wGDP, RngR, and rPM. The first three are the components of a players’ BsR, but when displayed individually they help us get a better understanding of how Revere’s value on the bases, stealing bases, and attempting to beat out a double play ball shifted last season. As for the final two, one might intrinsically connect a loss of speed to a decline in an outfielders’ range, so we’ll include both UZR and DRS’ range metrics as to cover all of our bases. These each have individual reasons as to why they might not accurately represent Revere’s speed, but we’re not looking for an absolute answer. Instead, a decline in all five areas where we can see the effects of the speed skill the most would create a more general picture as to whether Revere’s speed also took a hit due to his lingering oblique injury:</p>
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<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Season</th> <th align="center">Inn</th> <th align="center">UBR</th> <th align="center">wSB</th> <th align="center">wGDP</th> <th align="center">rPM</th> <th align="center">RngR</th>
</tr>
<tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'">
<td align="center">2013</td>
<td align="center">708</td>
<td align="center">1.2</td>
<td align="center">1</td>
<td align="center">-0.9</td>
<td align="center">-3</td>
<td align="center">-1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'">
<td align="center">2014</td>
<td align="center">1199</td>
<td align="center">5.3</td>
<td align="center">6.1</td>
<td align="center">-0.6</td>
<td align="center">-8</td>
<td align="center">-1.3</td>
</tr>
<tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'">
<td align="center">2015</td>
<td align="center">1241.1</td>
<td align="center">3.4</td>
<td align="center">3.1</td>
<td align="center">1.5</td>
<td align="center">4</td>
<td align="center">-1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'">
<td align="center">2016</td>
<td align="center">713.2</td>
<td align="center">2.2</td>
<td align="center">0.6</td>
<td align="center">-2.3</td>
<td align="center">3</td>
<td align="center">1.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>As we can see, Revere’s base-stealing and double-play-beating ability declined heavily in 2016, his base running ability got a little worse, and his range generally stayed the same. There’s a chance that the injury leaked into his speed skill, and it looks as if it hampered him more offensively than defensively. My best guess would be that the nagging injury did play a role in Revere’s declining base running numbers, but it’s hard to say conclusively that his actual speed declined.</p>
<p>After the worst season of his career, one in which he was left off the playoff roster, the Nationals decided to cut ties with Revere. Going forward, Revere’s 2016 represents an obvious floor, and one that is well below replacement level. Even though Revere battled an injury all year, at this point it’s tough to imagine him as anything but a 4<sup>th</sup> outfielder used to bolster a teams’ depth.</p>
<p>Now with an entire offseason to recover from the injury, Revere represents a nice, potentially cheap bounceback candidate. Sure, a Revere rebound still represents sub-league average production, but a return to 2014/2015 levels of production would be decent depth for most outfields. On the other hand, if you are operating from the point of view that Revere’s decline was not tied to his injury, but instead the product of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/">how quickly speed-types can decline</a>, you might want your team to stay far away from Revere.</p>
<p>With a few top outfielders left in free agency, I would assume we’ll be waiting longer for Revere’s market to develop, but it should get better once some of the more appealing outfield options sign. Maybe it’s just youthful optimism, but the fact that it might cost only a couple of million dollars to fund Ben Revere’s bounceback effort makes him an appealing option when looking for depth pieces this offseason.</p>
<p id="e5EbWY"><strong>. . .</strong></p>
<p id="Ushryr"><em>Shawn Brody is a contributor for Beyond the Box Score, producer of In Play, Pod(cast), and a pitcher recovering from Tommy John at Howard Payne University. He is a Junior majoring in Business Management with a minor in Computer Information Systems. You can follow him on Twitter </em><em><a style="text-decoration: underline;" href="http://www.twitter.com/Shawnbrody">@ShawnBrody</a></em><em> or email him at Shawnbrody9@gmail.com</em></p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13841062/ben-revere-nationals-non-tender-free-agent-hot-stoveShawn Brody2016-12-05T11:00:01-05:002016-12-05T11:00:01-05:00Why your team should sign Chris Carter
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-zFCB6oFNhUJcvgs97M4f6DqKU0=/0x119:4336x3010/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/52132443/usa-today-9546882.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Milwaukee bestowed upon Chris Carter the dubious honor of being the first league home run king to be non-tendered. Where might the slugging first baseman land?</p> <p><i>BtBS is profiling several prominent players </i><i>who became free agents after their team didn't tender</i><i> them a contract. For a full list, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13841754/non-tender-free-agent-hot-stove-ross-castillo-carter-revere-de-la-rosa">click here</a>.</i></p>
<p>Acquiring <span>Chris Carter</span> was one of the many thefts <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Brewers</a> GM David Stearns carried out against the Astros, his former employer, over the past year. After Houston opted to non-tender him a contract, Stearns scooped him up on a one-year, $2.5 million "prove it" deal, and prove things he did, leading the National League in home runs. For a team with no real designs on competing in 2017, a relatively cheap source of crowd-pleasing homers at a position without a clear heir apparent in the minor leagues seemed like a no-brainer.</p>
<p>Alas, it was us, the unwashed masses, who were the ones without brains. Milwaukee decided to get cheap and cut Carter loose last week, opting to dream of <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/3/13784608/eric-thames-kbo-milwaukee-brewers-power-hitter">imported Korean dingers from a returning ex-pat</a> over sticking with the good, old-fashioned American dingers Carter was already providing them. Carter is now a free agent after the Brewers were shockingly unable to trade a player who was about to become extremely available in a couple of hours before last Friday's tender deadline.</p>
<p><b>Is <span>Chris Carter</span> good?</b></p>
<p>It depends on what sort of activities you feel like a baseball player, and specifically a first baseman, should be getting up to. If you're a DREAMer (Dingers Rule Everything Around Me), then Carter is obviously your dude; he hit more home runs (41) than all the other professional baseball players in the National League except for<span>Nolan Arenado</span>, who tied him. There are a lot of baseball players in the National League, and several of them are really good!</p>
<p>Carter is also your dude if you think it's a great idea for first basemen to just be going around striking out all the time. That'd be a weird skill to value, but look, it's your baseball team and you have to run it however you want to. Striking out a lot could be the new market inefficiency. Carter struck out 206 times in 2016 to easily lead the National League. His career 33.1 percent strikeout rate leads all active players and is the fifth-highest of all time (non-pitchers, min. 1000 PA). He's really quite good at striking out — the dingers come at a price.</p>
<p>Despite a low batting average that necessarily results from poor contact skills, Carter does still manage to reach base at an acceptable clip thanks to a healthy amount of walks. Carter ranked 20th in the league with an 11.8 percent free pass rate in 2016, which kept his on-base percentage 100 points higher than his ugly .222 batting average. Fans of the three true outcomes have to adore this guy: His at-bats have ended without the need for fielders 50.3% of the time. <i>All the position players on the other team could meet up in center field to play Settlers of Catan during his at bats and there is a better-than-not chance that it wouldn't matter</i>.</p>
<p>Defensively, well, I'm sure Carter wishes there were times when he <i>could </i>go play board games with his friends in center field instead of doing things he's not particularly good at, such as catching and throwing. Defensive metrics are new and growing and generally disagree with each other a lot, but the arguments over Carter tend to focus not on whether or not he's any good, but rather the extent to which he is bad.</p>
<p><b>Where does he fit?</b></p>
<p>I mean, Coors would be fun.</p>
<p><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1199847883&topic_id=6479266&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></p>
<p>That was the game-winning home run Carter hit in what turned out to be his penultimate game as a Brewer, and the one that tied him with Arenado atop the NL leaderboard. When a normal human being offers a swing at a ball like that, it lands safely where it belongs: in the dang shortstop's glove. When Carter swings like that in Coors, it ends up in the 17th row, disturbing the nap of an innocent man with a very intricately-patterned blanket.</p>
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<p>"Um, yes, security? A large man is obviously cheating at sports and it's ruining my beauty sleep."</p>
<p>If we're not going to do that, though, then let's go ahead and find Carter a nice American League team, where he can just hit and hit all day and not worry about having to go and play defense. The <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Orioles</a> already have a guy named Chris who is a deacon in the Church of the Three True Outcomes, so why not two? They need to replace <span>Mark Trumbo</span> anyway.</p>
<p><b>What will he cost?</b></p>
<p>Prior to being non-tendered, Carter was projected by <a href="http://www.mlbdailydish.com" class="sbn-auto-link">MLB Trade Rumors</a> to make $8.1 million in salary arbitration in 2017, so that's a good starting place. A good comparison might be <span>Pedro Alvarez</span>, who was projected for the same amount by MLBTR last season before being non-tendered by Pittsburgh. Alvarez just so happened to wind up with the same team I'm shipping Carter to last season, so everything really lines up quite nicely. Alvarez wound up signing a one-year, $5.8 million contract a week into spring training. This year's free agent crop is weak, however, and scarcity makes this a seller's market.</p>
<p><b>Prediction: </b>Orioles, one year, $7 million</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><b>. . .</b></p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><i>Travis Sarandos is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score, a Taylor Swift enthusiast and a very nice person. </i><i>You can follow him on Twitter at <a href="https://twitter.com/travis_mke" target="_blank">@travis_mke</a>.</i></p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13837194/chris-carter-brewers-non-tender-free-agent-hot-stoveTravis Sarandos2016-12-05T10:00:01-05:002016-12-05T10:00:01-05:00Why your team should sign Welington Castillo
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bvEpeAF5YzvL4YuRGHuMNmkmrVE=/0x165:2102x1566/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/52124929/GettyImages-594882086.0.jpeg" />
<figcaption>Norm Hall/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>In a surprising decision, new Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen decided to non-tender Welington Castillo. Now the catcher known as "Beef" finds himself atop the menu of free agent backstops.</p> <p><i>BtBS is profiling several prominent players </i><i>who became free agents after their team didn't tender</i><i> them a contract. For a full list, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13841754/non-tender-free-agent-hot-stove-ross-castillo-carter-revere-de-la-rosa">click here</a>.</i></p>
<p>At first blush, the decision to non-tender catcher Welington Castillo seemed like a curious one from new Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen. Offensively competent catchers don’t grow on trees. While a .264/.322/.423 slash line with 14 home runs, a .319 wOBA, and a 92 wRC+ is not exceedingly impressive by itself, each of those rate stats is slightly above average compared to the league average for MLB catchers in 2016.</p>
<p>Of course defense is incredibly important for those who don the tools of ignorance, and in that respect Castillo is a mixed bag. He had positive marks in regards to DRS and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1918718" target="_blank" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; background-color: #ffffff;">Baseball Prospectus’ Throwing Runs, but graded poorly as a framer according to BP’s Framing Runs</a>.</p>
<p>Framing issues aside it still seemed like a no-brainer to tender Castillo a contract for 2017. MLB Trade Rumors was predicting he would earn $5.9 million in arbitration after the 2016 season that found him worth 1.7 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR, respectively. That price is seemingly a huge bargain for a solid offensive catcher who has eclipsed 375 plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.</p>
<p>So what was Mike Hazen's thinking here?</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dbacks GM Mike Hazen on nontenders: "We're trying to create strategic payroll flexibility."</p>
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickpiecoro/status/804856596652134400">December 3, 2016</a>
</blockquote>
<p>That quote appears to be a convoluted way of saying "we want to save money." It's not a sentiment that fans usually love, but clearly Hazen had a plan in place, as he acted quickly following Castillo’s non-tendering. The Diamondbacks utilized their "strategic payroll flexibility" and inked 33-year-old, all-glove no-bat journeyman, Jeff Mathis to a 2-year, $4 million contract. He will presumably split time with 29-year old Chris Herrmann, who had an impressive offensive showing in 2016 (117 wRC+ in 166 plate appearances) but lacks a track record of any sort. Arizona is hoping Hermann’s offense was no fluke, while ensuring that they have an excellent defensive catcher on board in Mathis. Hermann should command around $1 million in arbitration, which combined with the $2 million they’ll be paying Mathis, means both catchers combined will cost about half of what Castillo would have.</p>
<p>Now that Castillo is a free agent, we move on to ask "Where’s the beef?" (going to play in 2017).</p>
<p>…(you see because Welington Castillo’s nickname is Beef, in reference to the European dish Beef Wellington, and "Where’s the beef?" was a popular ad campaign from the Wendy’s fast food chain from the 1980’s. We have fun here.)...</p>
<p>In the short time that he has joined the ranks of free agent catchers, at least <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/rays-braves-among-teams-interested-in-welington-castillo.html" target="_blank">three teams have been reported to have interest</a> in Castillo. And with good reason, too: The list of available catchers is not particularly impressive. Here they are with notable offensive and defense stats and sorted by wRC+:</p>
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<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" class="sortable">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#EDF1F3">
<th align="center">Player</th> <th align="center"> AGE </th> <th align="center"> PA </th> <th align="center"> HR </th> <th align="center"> BB% </th> <th align="center"> K% </th> <th align="center"> wOBA </th> <th align="center"> wRC+ </th> <th align="center"> Framing Runs </th> <th align="center"> FRAA_ADJ </th>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Alex Avila</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">209</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
<td align="center">18.2%</td>
<td align="center">37.3%</td>
<td align="center">.329</td>
<td align="center">104</td>
<td align="center">-6.8</td>
<td align="center">-7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Welington Castillo</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">457</td>
<td align="center">14</td>
<td align="center">7.2%</td>
<td align="center">26.5%</td>
<td align="center">.306</td>
<td align="center">89</td>
<td align="center">-9.8</td>
<td align="center">-7.3</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Matt Wieters</td>
<td align="center">30</td>
<td align="center">464</td>
<td align="center">17</td>
<td align="center">6.9%</td>
<td align="center">18.3%</td>
<td align="center">.307</td>
<td align="center">88</td>
<td align="center">-4.4</td>
<td align="center">-2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Kurt Suzuki</td>
<td align="center">33</td>
<td align="center">373</td>
<td align="center">8</td>
<td align="center">4.8%</td>
<td align="center">12.9%</td>
<td align="center">.303</td>
<td align="center">86</td>
<td align="center">-7.1</td>
<td align="center">-8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Nick Hundley</td>
<td align="center">33</td>
<td align="center">317</td>
<td align="center">10</td>
<td align="center">7.9%</td>
<td align="center">20.5%</td>
<td align="center">.323</td>
<td align="center">82</td>
<td align="center">-11.4</td>
<td align="center">-14.0</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Chris Iannetta</td>
<td align="center">33</td>
<td align="center">338</td>
<td align="center">7</td>
<td align="center">11.2%</td>
<td align="center">24.6%</td>
<td align="center">.303</td>
<td align="center">77</td>
<td align="center">-14.4</td>
<td align="center">-14.3</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Jarrod Saltalamacchia</td>
<td align="center">31</td>
<td align="center">292</td>
<td align="center">12</td>
<td align="center">14.0%</td>
<td align="center">35.6%</td>
<td align="center">.277</td>
<td align="center">69</td>
<td align="center">-8.8</td>
<td align="center">-10.0</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">A.J. Ellis</td>
<td align="center">35</td>
<td align="center">196</td>
<td align="center">2</td>
<td align="center">9.7%</td>
<td align="center">15.8%</td>
<td align="center">.266</td>
<td align="center">65</td>
<td align="center">-0.8</td>
<td align="center">-1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="center">Dioner Navarro</td>
<td align="center">32</td>
<td align="center">334</td>
<td align="center">6</td>
<td align="center">6.9%</td>
<td align="center">21.3%</td>
<td align="center">.258</td>
<td align="center">56</td>
<td align="center">-16.8</td>
<td align="center">-17.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>By both name and actual value, Matt Wieters is the headliner of this group. He’s got the most power and the lowest strikeout rate, and while his defensive numbers are lackluster, they are better than the rest (except A.J. Ellis, but remember Ellis spent 2016 as a backup). Alex Avila’s 104 wRC+ jumps out as well, being that it’s the only number above league average, but it was achieved in just 209 plate appearances and bolstered by a .341 BABIP that will almost assuredly see some regression. Meanwhile Avila’s 37.3% strikeout rate was atrocious, showing the tangible effect of a contact rate that has declined in every season of his eight-year big league career.</p>
<p>Unless you are a believer in Avila’s 2016, it seems that Wieters and Castillo are the two best remaining catchers on the market. It will be interesting to compare the contracts they receive to the three-year, $24 million contract Jason Castro signed with the Twins. Castro’s 2016 wRC+ was 88, so he was basically just as valuable offensively as Wieters (88 wRC+) and Castillo (89 wRC+) with the bat. The difference in money will be almost entirely due to <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/11/23/13717146/jason-castro-twins-contract-framing-free-agent-values" target="_blank">Castro’s outstanding framing and defense</a>. We are about to get a glimpse at exactly how much the market values those skills.</p>
<p>In trimming his team’s payroll, it appears that Mike Hazen actually did Welington Castillo a favor. He may not reach the average annual value of $6 million that was expected in his final year of arbitration with the Diamondbacks, but by getting non-tendered and leaping to the top of the list of free agent catchers, he might find himself with an extra year or two of guaranteed money.</p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><b>. . .</b></p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><i>Chris Anders is a contributor to Beyond the Box Score. </i><i>You can follow him on Twitter at <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/mrchrisanders">@mrchrisanders</a>.</i></p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13832618/welington-castillo-mike-hazen-non-tender-diamondbacksChris Anders2016-12-05T09:00:02-05:002016-12-05T09:00:02-05:00Why your team should sign Tyson Ross
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<figcaption>Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The ailing right-hander is a free agent after the Padres non-tendered him. Is he worth the risk?</p> <p><i>BtBS is profiling several prominent players </i><i>who became free agents after their team didn't tender</i><i> them a contract. For a full list, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13841754/non-tender-free-agent-hot-stove-ross-castillo-carter-revere-de-la-rosa">click here</a>.</i></p>
<p>On Friday night, the San Diego Padres announced that they had non-tendered six players. Among those six was starter Tyson Ross. It was a move that shocked a lot of people around baseball, and many wondered what that meant for the right-hander who missed almost all of the 2016 season and is currently recovering from surgery on his pitching shoulder.</p>
<p>Ross, who was drafted by the Oakland A's in the second round of the amateur draft in 2008, made 53 appearances for Oakland in his first three seasons. Over that time, he struggled immensely, with a 5.33 ERA, 4.42 xFIP and 5.40 DRA. He was traded to the Padres in November 16, 2012.</p>
<p>In 2014 Ross had his best year as a starter. He made 31 starts, threw 195 2/3 innings and finished with a 2.81 ERA, a 3.11 xFIP and a 3.08 DRA. He also struck out 195 batters while walking 72. He was named to the All-Star squad that year as well.</p>
<p>2015 was a little more up-and-down for Ross, who finished the year with a league high in walks (84) and wild pitches (14) but also struck out a career high 212 batters. He earned a 3.26 ERA, 3.15 xFIP and 3.04 DRA. He pitched 196 innings in 2015 and started a career high 33 games.</p>
<p>Ross only pitched one game in 2016 — Opening Day against the Los Angeles Dodgers — and it was an unmitigated disaster for the righty. He pitched 5 1/3 innings (94 pitches) and gave up eight runs on nine hits. He hit two batters,but only walked one and struck out seven. The Dodgers went on to win the game 15-0. Ross was placed on the disabled list less than a week later with shoulder inflammation, and he didn't throw another pitch for the Padres the rest of the season. He made one rehab start in High Single-A Lake Elsinore on August 25 and experienced more shoulder discomfort.</p>
<p>Ross was finally diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, the same affliction that ended both Phil Hughes and Matt Harvey's seasons. He underwent surgery on October 13. The recovery time is usually four to six months, which means Tyson could be ready for Opening Day.</p>
<p><b>Why a team would take a chance on Ross</b></p>
<p>Ross is a good pitcher when he's on, and he has <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=475115&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&time=month&startDate=04/01/2013&endDate=04/04/2016&s_type=2" target="_blank">four pitches in his repertoire</a>. He throws a four-seam fastball, a slider, a changeup and a cutter. He tried using a split finger fastball back in the early part of the 2013 season, but he removed it from his arsenal. Before he injured his shoulder, Ross's velocity was between 87-95. He could reach 94-95 on his four-seam, his sinker hovered around 93-94, his changeup — when it was used — could hit as high as 90, and his slider stayed around 87. Toward the end of the 2015 season, his numbers dropped a bit, but he also threw a career high in innings which could have played a role in the velocity dip. It wasn't enough to be alarming, just enough to be noticed.</p>
<p><b>Why the Padres cut him loose</b></p>
<p>It's possible that the Padres cut Ross loose only to sign him again for cheaper — especially with his injury history and the fact that he's still recovering from surgery. He earned $9.6 million in 2016 and spent the year on the disabled list. This year would have been his final offseason of arbitration eligibility.</p>
<p><b>His overall outlook</b></p>
<p>At this time last year, Tyson Ross was a highly coveted pitcher, but the Padres stood pat all winter and didn't trade him. Then the injury happened and they had to cut him. Ross's overall outlook all depends on how well his rehab and subsequent recovery go. Shoulders are tricky, but he didn't have a torn labrum or rotator cuff surgery, which are harder to come back from. If his recovery from TOS surgery goes well and he is able to pitch again at a high level, he could be a very good weapon for a team that needs a righty starter. If it doesn't go well, someone may be paying for a pitcher who will be struggling with injuries.</p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/5/13833912/tyson-ross-padres-non-tender-free-agent-mlb-hot-stoveStacey Gotsulias