Beyond the Box Score - All PostsA Saber-Slanted Baseball Communityhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47305/boxscore-fv.png2022-03-24T09:00:00-04:00http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/rss/current/2022-03-24T09:00:00-04:002022-03-24T09:00:00-04:00The Royals are on the verge of returning to relevancy
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<figcaption>Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Led by rookie Bobby Witt Jr. and several unheralded contributors like Nicky López, the Royals are slowly, but surely crawling back to respectability</p> <p id="KcZMR1">After a 95-67 season in 2015 that resulted in a <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> title, the <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/">Kansas City Royals</a>’ decline started: they finished 81-81 in 2016 and 80-82 in 2017, but really hit rock bottom in 2018 (58-104) and 2019 (59-103). The pandemic season (26-34) and 2021 (74-88) were actually decent compared to that ugly 2018-19 period.</p>
<p id="gBbkh7">The Royals, however, are eager to see the light at the end of the tunnel. They want to return to relevancy, and actually made some win-now moves for the 2022 campaign. For example, they brought in homegrown starter Zack Greinke, who is returning home at the tender age of 38 after posting a 4.16 ERA in 171 innings for the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a> last year.</p>
<p id="8dIrrD">For the Royals to have a shot at finishing among the best teams in the AL Central division in 2022, however, they need several things to happen, the most important of them being their young starters taking a (massive) step forward.</p>
<p id="ANB4jy">Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic were, or are, all touted prospects at one point in their careers. They all pitched significant innings in the big leagues last year, and here are the results:</p>
<p id="uH3FOY"><strong>Brady Singer</strong>: 4.91 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 22.4 K% in 128.1 IP</p>
<p id="F4ZOUi"><strong>Daniel Lynch:</strong> 5.69 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 17.1 K% in 68 IP</p>
<p id="NNN2lv"><strong>Kris Bubic:</strong> 4.43 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 20.5 K% in 130 IP</p>
<p id="0v2fDQ"><strong>Jackson Kowar:</strong> 11.27 ERA, 6.43 FIP, 18.1 K% in 30.1 IP</p>
<p id="5PyyY7">Not good. Not good at all. Perhaps Greinke can do some coaching in Kansas City, or maybe some of them will find consistency and significantly improve in 2022 simply because of natural prospect growth, but the franchise does need more of that foursome. Brad Keller and Carlos Hernandez will also eat some innings as starters.</p>
<p id="kYxVJ3">For Kansas City, however, things are looking particularly bright in the position players’ department. Bobby Witt, who completely dominated Double-A and Triple-A last year with 33 homers and 29 stolen bases (plus some really impressive wRC+ marks), is expected to be the third baseman and is a candidate for Rookie of the Year honors.</p>
<p id="knLqDo">The Royals have Salvador Pérez’s power (a league-leading 48 homers in 2021) from the catching position, which is a plus even though he is far from an asset behind the plate; as well as Adalberto Mondesí’s game-changing speed even if his plate discipline profile is not ideal.</p>
<p id="sW9Vaw">To balance things, Kansas City has Andrew Benintendi’s all-around production (.276/.324/.442 line, 17 homers, eight steals, and a 106 wRC+) and Nicky López and Whit Merrifield’s speed and contact skills.</p>
<p id="zhAbQk">López is actually quite underrated. Expected to be the starter at the keystone, he led the Royals last year with 4.4 fWAR: he hit .300 and had a solid .365 OBP with very good defense. As for Merrifield, though, perhaps the Royals should have traded him last year while he still had some value, as he is already declining (91 wRC+).</p>
<p id="vxKj77">MJ Meléndez and Nick Pratto, like Witt, are heralded hitting prospects who hit more than 30 homers in the minors last year and are expected to contribute in 2022. They are both quite talented.</p>
<p id="t2CDJe">If the Royals can get something out of Michael A. Taylor, Carlos Santana, and Hunter Dozier offensively, it would be a bonus. Taylor is a defensive ace in center field, though.</p>
<p id="gpBaP8">The Royals, now that they traded for Amir Garrett, have some good relievers: Josh Staumont, Scott Barlow, and Jake Brentz certainly qualify, but the group isn’t particularly deep.</p>
<h2 id="rUWDXu"><strong>Win Total Prediction: 80-82 (.493)</strong></h2>
<p id="xoCIOC">All in all, the Royals are slowly crawling back to contention, but they are not quite there yet until they can develop some pitching. They have the prospects: now they have to show they can give them the necessary tools to succeed against the best hitters in the world.</p>
<p id="K6G6OW">I am fairly confident that the Royals can finish with a better record than the Cleveland Guardians, and may be able to challenge the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a> and <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a> if they can get something out of Singer, Kowar, Lynch, and Bubic. They are more of a 2023 or 2024 play, though.</p>
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<p id="b3MS3F"><em>Andrés Chávez loves the game of baseball and writes about it at Beyond the Box Score, Pinstripe Alley, and other sites. He is on Twitter as @andres_chavez13</em></p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/24/22993929/kansas-city-royals-2022-season-preview-returning-to-relevancyAndrés Chávez2022-03-24T08:00:00-04:002022-03-24T08:00:00-04:00Morning Mound Visit: Reds sign Tommy Pham to one-year deal
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<figcaption>Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Arguably the best remaining free agent outfielder is off the board.</p> <p id="5GxM6b">The Cincinnati Reds have spent most of the winter tearing down their roster, but on Wednesday, they made an improvement. Tommy Pham signed a one-year, $7.5 million deal with a mutual option for 2023. The 34-year-old outfielder struggled slightly over the past two seasons. In 686 combined plate appearances, Pham slashed .226/.335/.370 for a 97 wRC+. Pham isn’t known for his defensive prowess either.</p>
<p id="g0QME7">If there’s a place for a slugger to get their groove back, it’s Great American Ballpark. According to FanGraphs’ park factors, Cincinnati was the friendliest home run park in each of the last four seasons.</p>
<p id="lNyQXN">Pham figures to be Cincinnati’s Opening Day left fielder over Aristedes Aquino, Jake Fraley, and Shogo Akiyama. Of course, Pham could get plenty of starts as the Reds’ designated hitter.</p>
<p id="yVFBCV"><a href="https://www.redreporter.com/2022/3/23/22994056/cincinnati-reds-rumors-tommy-pham">Reactions from Reds Reporter</a></p>
<p id="hx6pDE"><a href="https://www.truebluela.com/2022/3/23/22993954/matt-beaty-dodgers-odd-man-out">Eric Stephen | True Blue LA</a>: The Dodgers designated Matt Beaty for assignment on Wednesday. In 2021, Beaty slashed .270/.363/.402 for a 114 wRC+ across 234 plate appearances. Hanser Alberto takes Beaty’s spot on LA’s 40-player roster.</p>
<p id="S5wN7q"><a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/3/23/22992967/sergio-romo-to-the-mariners-on-a-one-year-deal">Kate Preusser | Lookout Landing</a>: The Mariners signed Sergio Romo to a one-year worth $2 million. In 61 2/3 innings, Romo pitched to a 4.24 FIP.</p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/24/22994146/mlb-news-reds-sign-tommy-pham-to-one-year-dealKenny Kelly2022-03-23T09:00:00-04:002022-03-23T09:00:00-04:00The Tigers are hungry for success
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<figcaption>Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>With some exciting additions and impressive, potentially game-changing prospects, Detroit is on the right track even if they are not favored to make the playoffs</p> <p id="AtECXi">The <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a> took a sizable step forward last season when they finished with a decent 77-85 record. It wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs (it was the seventh straight season without October baseball for the Tigers), but it gave fans something they had been missing for a while: hope.</p>
<p id="tqPlKw">Andy Dufresne, in The Shawshank Redemption, said it best: “Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”</p>
<p id="WLCOGT">After opening the 2021 campaign with a putrid 9–24 record, Detroit played over .500 the rest of the year, going 68–61. Fans finally saw some light at the end of the tunnel, and the franchise entered the offseason with lots of holes to fill and money to spend.</p>
<p id="fTIi56">Detroit signed shortstop Javier Báez to a six-year, $140 million deal, but also inked underrated reliever Andrew Chafin on a two-year pact worth $13 million. They brought in starters Eduardo Rodríguez and Michael Pineda and traded for catcher Tucker Barnhart.</p>
<h2 id="ks4XMQ"><strong>It’s time to let the kids take over</strong></h2>
<p id="c5M4XZ">Perhaps more importantly, the Tigers are ready to give two prominent prospects the key to their future: first baseman Spencer Torkelson and outfielder Riley Greene. They had already started the process in the last two years, giving important innings to their “Big Three” starting pitching prospects: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning.</p>
<p id="NcdQij">Much of the future of the franchise will depend on those five players. Torkelson hit 30 home runs across three minor league levels in 2021, and had a 129 wRC+ in Triple-A, while Greene accumulated 24 dingers and 16 stolen bases in two levels, Double-A and Triple-A.</p>
<p id="VZLLOv">Mize, the man of the nasty splitter, may have had a 4.71 FIP in 2021, but he did finish with a 3.71 ERA in 150.1 innings and was able to make 30 starts, setting himself up nicely for a bigger workload this year as the Tigers, they hope, will be fighting for a place in the postseason thanks to the expanded format.</p>
<p id="k82RMu">Skubal’s 4.34 ERA was not particularly good, but he did miss bats at a high clip (25.9 K%) and is a breakout candidate for 2022. Manning, meanwhile, had lots of issues getting strikeouts (14.8 K%) and is more of a question mark. Spencer Turnbull is injured and Matt Boyd is off to greener pastures, so E-Rod and Pineda will complete a rotation with a nice ceiling, but not a very high floor.</p>
<p id="9deCTB">The lineup will welcome back Akil Baddoo (108 wRC+, 13 homers, 18 stolen bases) and Robbie Grossman (114 wRC+, 23 HR, 20 SB) in the outfield corners. Greene could win the center field job out of camp.</p>
<p id="NOsFrb">Baez will bring some much-needed thump and upside to the infield. He plays a very good shortstop, and if he can keep some of the plate discipline gains he made during his time with the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a>, look out.</p>
<p id="EtJtuU">Miguel Cabrera is close to finished, but he can still post slightly below-average offensive production, and his role as a mentor for the young hitters could be extremely valuable if he embraces it. One would think a hitter like Torkelson has a lot to learn from a guy like Cabrera.</p>
<p id="bJueTK">The reliable Jeimer Candelario, the Tigers’ fWAR leader in 2021 with 3.2, will man third base, and Jonathan Schoop is the second baseman. Barnhart and Eric Haase will form a pretty solid catching tandem.</p>
<h2 id="oxGy4A"><strong>Win Total Prediction: 84-78 (.518)</strong></h2>
<p id="JovH3C">Detroit got better during the offseason, but it’s still not a surefire playoff team. They could eventually get in, but nearly every team in the division (except for the Cleveland Guardians, to be honest) is looking better this year, and the American League as a whole also got stronger.</p>
<p id="lcNGiV">Overall, Detroit may be able to finish above .500, which would be a highly successful outcome given everything the franchise has had to go through recently. The playoffs are looking like a more difficult objective, but while it’s not impossible, the odds are against them.</p>
<p id="3UKhE4">They are definitely on the right path, though, and better days are surely ahead.</p>
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<p id="k9ljla"><em>Andrés Chávez loves the game of baseball and writes about it at Beyond the Box Score, Pinstripe Alley, and other sites. He is on Twitter as @andres_chavez13</em></p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/23/22992118/detroit-tigers-2022-season-preview-hungry-for-success-playoff-hopefulAndrés Chávez2022-03-23T08:00:00-04:002022-03-23T08:00:00-04:00Morning Mound Visit: Ghost runner rule reinstated
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<figcaption>Photo by John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p><strong>unloads clip</strong> “Why won’t you die!?”</p> <p id="Hbm00x">Arguably the best news coming out of the lockout-ending agreement on a new CBA was that extra innings would return to normal. The ghost runner rule was exorcised, never to be seen again. But nothing gold can stay, Ponyboy. The ghost runner is back for the sequel in 2022. Ghost Runner 2: Resurrection. It’s supposed to go away after the season, but this franchise will never die.</p>
<p id="5Yd8I6">Two other rule changes were announced Tuesday, and these are much more palatable. Rosters will be expanded from 26 to 28 through May 1 to compensate for an abbreviated spring. Also, pitchers who hit for themselves (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) will be allowed to remain in the game as the DH after coming out of the game as a pitcher.</p>
<p id="1EcLIC"><a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/3/21/22986571/the-royals-have-quietly-put-together-the-hardest-throwing-bullpen-in-baseball">Matthew LaMar | Royals Review</a>: The Royals haven’t gotten much attention this winter, but they have quietly assembled one of the hardest throwing bullpens in MLB. Kansas City boasts five relievers who ranked in the top-100 for average fastball velocity including Josh Staumont who tops out at 102 mph.</p>
<p id="OfbnaE"><a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2022/3/22/22991220/jays-sign-chapman-to-contract-extension">Tom Dakers | Bluebird Banter</a>: The Blue Jays signed Matt Chapman to a two-year extension worth $25 million. This deal buys out Chapman’s final two years of arbitration eligibility.</p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/23/22992254/mlb-news-ghost-runner-rule-reinstatedKenny Kelly2022-03-22T09:00:00-04:002022-03-22T09:00:00-04:00Offensive woes will hold back elite pitching in Guardian’s maiden voyage
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<figcaption>Image: @CleGuardians/Twitter</figcaption>
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<p>After their first sub-.500 season since 2012, the Guardians have done little to put together a lineup around superstar José Ramírez</p> <p id="QRaeBF">In the wake of a handful of blockbuster trades, the Guardians find themselves in a strange middle ground where they have yet to fully commit to a rebuild but have not been serious contenders since 2019. </p>
<p id="tibcoJ">In the shortened 2020 season they finished a respectable 35-25 and made the playoffs before a quick first-round exit. They then regressed considerably in 2021, finishing 80-82, their first sub-.500 finish since the 2012 season. The downsward trend seems likely to continue in 2022, as little has been done to improve the Major League roster.</p>
<p id="vQ1mNm">This winter, the Guardians have lost Roberto Pérez, Wilson Ramos, Blake Parker, and Bryan Shaw in free agency. They’ve also dealt Harold Ramirez and JC Mejia, receiving nothing that will benefeit the 2022 club (in return they received cash and a player to be named later). </p>
<p id="fmzE2Y">Going back to the beginning of last offseason, Jordan Luplow, Phil Maton, Eddie Rosario, and César Hernández are all names on the list of departed players, as each was traded midseason in 2021. </p>
<p id="S8b5Go">In that same span, the most significant additions to the roster have been Sandy Leon (free agent signing), Myles Straw (Maton trade), and Pablo Sandoval (Rosario trade). Sandoval was most notable as he was released on the same day as the trade. Leon is a decent enough backup catcher, and Myles Straw has some terrific tools, but this is a roster much worse off than it was a year ago. Not only is this roster worse than previous seasons, but the rest of the division has improved, particularly Detroit (Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez) and Minnesota (Carlos Correa).</p>
<p id="YSPHcB">All that said, there is still a good amount of talent on this Cleveland team. The rotation is a clear strength of this squad. Shane Bieber has established himself as one of the premier starters in the league. Bieber was phenomenal while healthy last season, sporting a 139 ERA+ and a 24.9 K-BB% across 96.2 innings. The young ace is expected to be ready for opening day. Cal Quantrill (152 ERA+, 149.2 IP) and Aaron Civale (114, 124.1) are also coming off quality seasons. Zach Plesac and Triston McKenzie each struggled last season but have enough tools and flashes of success to get excited. Plesac excelled at limiting free bases (86th percentile walk rate) in 2021, which is what McKenzie struggled with, but he excelled at missing bats, as he rated in the 77th percentile in both chase rate and K%. Youngsters Logan Allen and Eli Morgan will provide depth as needed. </p>
<p id="wn1Jfj">The bullpen doesn’t have the same quality of depth but certainly has some exciting high-potential names, including closer Emmanuel Clase, who has quickly established himself as one of the better closers in baseball thanks in large part to his devastating 100mph cutter. His Baseball Savant page is truly eye-popping, as he ranks in the 96th percentile or higher in each of HardHit%, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, Barrel%, chase rate, fastball velocity, and fastball spin. What sticks out perhaps more than anything is Clase’s control, ranking in the 86th percentile in walk rate. Control is often the Achilles heel of young flamethrowing closers, but Clase doesn’t seem to have that issue. </p>
<p id="dVmjLl">James Karinchak seemed like a real weapon out of the bullpen early in 2021, but struggled down the stretch, posting a 7.88 ERA after the All-Star break. Anthony Gose is another exciting name, as he continues his transition from the outfield to the mound. His pitching debut went well in 2021, allowing just one earned run across 6.2 innings of work while punching out nine hitters. </p>
<p id="phqq91">Offensively, the lineup leaves much to be desired. Jose Ramirez is a legitimate superstar, but the supporting cast around him is not enough for serious contention. Ramirez is coming off of a typical J-Ram season: 36 homers, .893 OPS, 6.7 bWAR, all-star honors, and a 6th place MVP finish. If the Guardians are far enough out of it by the trade deadline, a trade of Ramirez seems possible (although far from a guarantee). It would take quite a haul for anybody to add him, as the 29-year-old has a $13 million team option for the 2023 season before hitting free agency. </p>
<p id="crvXDj">Franmil Reyes is the next best offensive weapon. He launched 30 bombs with a 127 OPS+ last season. Bobby Bradley, Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Myles Straw, and Oscar Mercado all have enough tools and youth that they still have enough upside to potentially be exciting, but they are all far from sure things to be even league-average players (Straw was the only above-average hitter last year by OPS+). If enough of these players suddenly take a step or two forward, the Guardians could very quickly become postseason threats, but that is a massive “if”. </p>
<p id="oYsjhR"><strong>Win Projection: 76-86</strong></p>
<p id="1SypbD">The 2021 Guardians were a hair under .500. Essentially nothing has been done to improve the major league roster, while several everyday players have departed over the last year. Combined with their divisional opponents improving (last year Cleveland posted a strong 43-33 record vs AL Central opponents), a worse record seems inevitable. The pitching will be too good for them to be a bottom-tier team, but the offense inspires little hope of postseason baseball in the Guardian’s inaugural season.</p>
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<p id="wRV1JV"><em>Matt O’Halloran is a junior mathematics major at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. He works in analytics with the school’s baseball program. He is a writer for Beyond the Box Score and an editor at Diamond Digest. He can be found on Twitter @matto20.</em></p>
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https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/22/22990532/cleveland-guardians-2022-season-preview-offensive-woes-hold-back-elite-pitching-maiden-voyageMatt O'Halloran2022-03-22T08:00:00-04:002022-03-22T08:00:00-04:00Morning Mound Visit: Rockies extend Ryan McMahon
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<figcaption>Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>McMahon signed a six-year, $70 million extension</p> <p id="1uVR7D">The Colorado Rockies and Ryan McMahon agreed to a six-year extension worth $70 million. Entering his age-27 season, McMahon has five years of big-league experience, all with Colorado. In that time, he’s hit to a .323 wOBA, which is underwhelming considering he plays half his games in Coors Field.</p>
<p id="QwmBTc">McMahon put together a fine season in 2021, slashing .254/.331/.449 with excellent defense at second and third. League average production at the plate still meant that he was worth 2.5 fWAR. ZiPS projects McMahon to be worth about two wins a season for the next three years, and for $11 million AAV, it’s easy to do worse.</p>
<p id="i2Mh3S"><a href="https://www.purplerow.com/2022/1/30/22907811/lets-talk-about-ryan-mcmahon-the-shortstop-rockies-story">The Rockies have considered playing McMahon at shortstop</a>, but those duties will likely fall on José Iglesias for now.</p>
<p id="sxBvbA"><a href="https://www.purplerow.com/2022/3/21/22989569/colorado-rockies-and-infielder-ryan-mcmahon-agree-on-contract-extension-roster-news">Reactions to the extension from Purple Row</a></p>
<p id="Opvhgr"><a href="https://www.sfgate.com/athletics/article/Why-latest-Oakland-A-s-teardown-is-team-s-worst-17012659.php?IPID=SFGate-HP-CP-Spotlight">Alex Espinoza | SF Gate</a>: The A’s have torn down rosters before, but they haven’t done it while jacking up ticket prices by 70 percent or more. While A’s president Dave Kaval insists the A’s can’t be competitive until Oakland taxpayers pay for a new stadium, attending a baseball game at the Coliseum suddenly costs a premium.</p>
<p id="UhbQtH"><a href="https://www.truebluela.com/2022/3/21/22988624/kenley-jansen-los-angeles-dodgers-atlanta-braves-mlb-news">Blake Harris | True Blue LA</a>: Kenley Jansen won’t pitch for the Dodgers in 2021, and it might be because the Dodgers didn’t want to pay the Cohen Tax. The Dodgers reportedly offered a two-year deal but asked Jansen to wait until they could shed payroll.</p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/22/22990560/mlb-news-rockies-extend-ryan-mcmahonKenny Kelly2022-03-21T12:00:00-04:002022-03-21T12:00:00-04:00The AL Central is the White Sox’ to lose
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<p>Chicago just needs to not screw up</p> <p id="uZ44gI">I typically approach season previews by trying to answer the question, “How well-positioned is this team for a playoff berth?” With the AL Central, that question is already answered. The fourth law of thermodynamics is that there can only be one good team in the AL Central at any given time. In 2021, it looked like the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a> and Twins might both be good, and, well, you saw what happened to the Twins. That wasn’t just a collapse. That was the planets aligning to maintain a delicate equilibrium.</p>
<p id="5hooPe">It appears that the White Sox are the sole good team in the AL Central. Our staff unanimously predicted Chicago to win the division. Unless they massively screw up, they’ll do so easily. The White Sox might massively screw up.</p>
<p id="xddvM2">How they might massively screw up isn’t exactly obvious. The White Sox don’t have any clear weaknesses. The starting nine is a deep group. The rotation is solid. The bullpen is excellent. The White Sox have a sturdy three-branch system of checks and balances, and when has something like that ever broken down?</p>
<p id="l87Tu3">When looking ahead at the 2022 season, it’s better to evaluate the White Sox on how well-equipped they are for a playoff run. Last year, they coasted into October but the Astros bounced them in four games. That isn’t indicative of their talent, though. The White Sox aren’t just good for an AL Central team. They’re a good team period. But in the ALDS they looked like a team that hadn’t had to try in several months and were still shaking off the rust.</p>
<p id="hnjpxS">A rotation led by Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Rodón should have fared better in a best-of-five even against an offensive powerhouse like the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a>. Rodón is off to foggier pastures, of course, but his departure paves the way for Michael Kopech to return to the rotation.</p>
<p id="NMFEZa">In 69 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings, Kopech struck out 103 batters while walking a modest 24. Kopech’s fastball ranks in the 98th percentile in spin and the 96th percentile in velocity. A full-time move to the rotation might decrease his velo a bit, but his slider is an even better pitch. Kopech’s slider induced a 36 percent whiff rate and kept batters to a .241 wOBA. And Kopech’s not just a two-pitch pitcher. His curveball and changeup have just as much swing-and-miss potential, and he’ll likely use both more often as a starter since he’ll have to face batters more than once. With his arsenal, he shouldn’t have an issue sliding into the rotation.</p>
<p id="LI3ZTX">Dylan Cease took a major step forward in 2021 by cutting down his walk rate. A 9.6 percent mark is still a little high, but it’s a vast improvement over the 13.3 number he posted in 2020. Cease’s newfound control led to more strikeouts as well, and the righty put up a career-best 31.9 percent strikeout rate.</p>
<p id="Pp799p">The biggest question in the rotation is whether Dallas Keuchel can bounce back after a down year. The veteran soft-tosser pitched to a 5.23 FIP in 162 innings. Keuchel has never been a strikeout maven, but his 13.2 percent strikeout rate was dead last among qualified starters by three percentage points. If the White Sox get more of the same from Keuchel in 2022, they’ll likely leave him off the postseason roster again, but there’s not a lot of surefire depth behind Keuchel. The White Sox should be looking to shore up their starting depth lest they place their season’s hopes on Vince Velasquez.</p>
<p id="afFlja">The White Sox will be hoping for good health on the offensive side as well. A lineup featuring Luis Robert, Yoán Moncada, José Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, and Eloy Jiménez is going to score a billion runs, and the offense ranked sixth in non-pitcher wRC+ in 2021 even with Jiménez, Grandal, and Robert each getting less than 300 plate appearances each. Still, there’s not a lot of help coming if the star players aren’t available. Josh Harrison and Leury García are league average hitters at best, and Adam Engel and Gavin Sheets are projected for a step back.</p>
<p id="vCEXBA">Andrew Vaughn’s bat hasn’t arrived yet, but he’s still just 24. He was also getting back up to speed after not facing live competition in 2020 due to the minor league season being canceled. Vaughn could certainly break out this year and be a marquee slugger, but he might not fully establish himself until next year or later. Vaughn hit the ball well in 2021, but he didn’t have much to show for it. A 47.3 percent hard-hit rate and a 10.9 percent barrel rate are both good, but that only added up to a .332 xwOBA.</p>
<h3 id="ldhmxa">Prediction: 95-67</h3>
<p id="Y5bdDI">The White Sox shouldn’t have any problem with the division, and with a top-five offense and pitching staff, they’re set up for a deep playoff run.</p>
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<p id="tK9iOg"><em>Kenny Kelly is the managing editor of Beyond the Box Score.</em></p>
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https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/21/22987791/chicago-white-sox-season-preview-al-central-is-the-white-sox-to-loseKenny Kelly2022-03-21T09:00:03-04:002022-03-21T09:00:03-04:00AL Central Predictions
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<img alt="Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Indians" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sGpzR_apvzmRKwN8W5s-m8Ng_PA=/0x0:4328x2885/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70651346/1342184906.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Projections give the White Sox a comfortable advantage, but the offseason is far from over.</p> <p id="zRnKLR">We began our division prediction series with the two most-contested divisions in Major League Baseball. <a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/7/22949570/al-east-predictions-new-york-yankees-boston-red-sox-tampa-bay-rays-toronto-blue-jays">The AL East is a war between demigods</a> that rivals <a href="https://eldenring.fandom.com/wiki/Shattering">The Shattering</a>. The NL East is a dizzy bat race. The AL Central is, well, neither of those things. Projections have already handed the division title to the Chicago White Sox and for good reason. The other four teams aren’t great! In the AL East, there will likely be three teams with at least 90 wins. In the AL Central, there might only be one team with a winning record.</p>
<p id="2iE8Yc">But you know what they say: the game isn’t won in PECOTA. A lot can change between now and October. Heck, a lot can change between now and Opening Day.</p>
<p id="jTbpt2">Here are our predictions:</p>
<h3 id="EslLfn">Andrés Chávez: Chicago White Sox</h3>
<p id="1VjKyV">The Detroit Tigers, the Minnesota Twins, and even the Kansas City Royals have significantly improved their rosters for the 2022 season. None of them, however, is in the Chicago White Sox’s league, at least not yet.</p>
<p id="YZ5A2D">Without making major additions (depending on how you view reliever Kendall Graveman, of course) and even losing top starter Carlos Rodon, the White Sox should have enough to top the competition.</p>
<p id="e8eImE">If injuries cooperate, they will enjoy full seasons from Luis Robert (3.2 fWAR in just 68 games in 2021) and Eloy Jiménez; and several impressive young players such as Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, Jake Burger, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease could conceivably take a step forward.</p>
<p id="m59OMd">The Pale Hose, once again, are putting their hopes in a super-bullpen, as Liam Hendriks, Graveman, Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, and Garrett Crochet are good enough to shut down any lineup in the late innings.</p>
<p id="4wTIHT">Will the rotation hold up without Rodón? That’s an important storyline to follow this year: Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Cease are all very good, but there are questions marks after that. The offense, though, shouldn’t be a problem.</p>
<p id="1puQAd">It should be noted, however, that the gap in the AL Central between the White Sox and the rest of the division may be starting to close. The Detroit Tigers got Javy Baez, Tucker Barnhart, Eduardo Rodríguez, Michael Pineda, and Andrew Chafin; while the Twins just signed Carlos Correa and traded for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela. Even the Royals brought Zack Greinke and will give MLB’s best prospect, Bobby Witt Jr., the chance to win the third base job. The Guardians haven’t made any significant moves but remain dangerous as long as they have Shane Bieber and José Ramírez. </p>
<h3 id="juCoi1">Kenny Kelly: Chicago White Sox</h3>
<p id="AkVdgk">I’ve been high on the White Sox for longer than I had any right to be, so I’m not going to stop now. Why they’ll win the division should be pretty clear. Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Yoan Moncada headline a solid, if top-heavy, offense. The Rodón-less rotation still has enough there in Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Lance Lynn to keep them in most ballgames, and with a bullpen of Liam Hendriks, Craig Kimbrel, Aaron Bummer, and Kendall Graveman, they don’t have to worry about coughing up any leads. Not to mention they have Michael Kopech floating around.</p>
<p id="2ZEyZh">If anyone is going to take the crown from the Southsiders, it’s going to be the Tigers. It might require Spencer Torkelson having a Pete Alonso-esque rookie year and Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal pitching to the top of their game, but anything’s possible. As good as the White Sox are, they still have questionable depth on the bench and in the rotation. The White Sox might struggle to get quality innings from their starters if anyone gets hurt. <a href="https://morbotron.com/meme/S02E03/658042.jpg?b64lines=IElGIFdFIENBTiBISVQgVEhBVAogQlVMTCdTLUVZRSBUSEUgUkVTVCBPRgogVEhFIERPTUlOT0VTIFdJTEwgRkFMTAogTElLRSBBIEhPVVNFIE9GIENBUkRTLgogQ0hFQ0tNQVRFLg==">Enough dominoes fall and the whole thing will come crashing down like a house of cards. Checkmate.</a></p>
<h3 id="7m6x7g">Steven Martano: Chicago White Sox </h3>
<p id="vKRMaE">Last year Chicago was the only team in the AL Central to finish above .500, and while they would not be favored to win the AL East or West, despite a myriad of injuries in 2021, they still managed 93 wins. A healthy Chicago team that has a good core reinforced through free agency positions this team as the obvious favorites to win the Central. </p>
<p id="hFsup7">In 2021, Eloy Jiménez, Nick Madrigal, and Luis Robert all missed significant time due to injury. Chicago also lost catcher Yasmani Grandal for over a month, José Abreu and Tim Anderson both hit the injured list for periods of time. While IL stints are inevitable in a 162-game season, it’s hard to imagine Chicago getting hit with as bad an injury bug as they did last year. </p>
<p id="T6gQGM">The Sox inked two solid players following the lockout, signing utility infielder Josh Harrison and reliever Joe Kelly. Harrison is a solid replacement to Madrigal, and Kelly is a welcome addition to a bullpen that was already one of the best in baseball — the Sox led the AL in K/9 and were effectively tied with the Rays for fWAR despite relievers throwing 150 fewer innings. </p>
<p id="1pI497">The White Sox have a strong rotation as well, with a starting trio of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease, followed by a backend rotation consisting of former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and flamethrowing Michael Kopech. </p>
<p id="lgxr49">The Twins are getting rid of every decent player on their team, the Royals are hardly ready to compete, the Tigers have not been good for the better part of a decade, and the Guardians are in rebuild mode. The question is can the White Sox translate their regular-season success into a playoff series victory? </p>
<h3 id="P1WWe5">Estevão Maximo: Chicago White Sox</h3>
<p id="rDCvNW">The AL Central has an owner. As much as I want to believe that the Twins will acquire Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea to field a competitive rotation that can truly challenge for the division crown, I highly doubt it will happen, and even if it does there’s no reason to bet against the White Sox now.</p>
<p id="C2oihe">A lineup with depth and up and coming hitters such as Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert who we’ll hopefully see for a full season, and a rotation that has the likes of Lance Lynn still hitting on all cylinders, Lucas Giolito, and a Michael Kopech ready to step in and fill some of the innings left by Carlos Ródon, plus a bullpen led by the best in the business, Liam Hendriks.</p>
<p id="cQjL6z">The White Sox have a balanced contender ready to win now and the Twins and Guardians have too many question marks surrounding their pitching and hitting respectively to challenge for the number one spot.</p>
<p id="3lEe9Y">Baseball is a surprising sport, no one expected to see the Giants winning the NL West last year and it’s never wrong to reinforce the anything can happen narrative. However, there’s no sense in picking anyone else to take the AL Central. The White Sox are the prohibitive favorites and I’m sure they have their sights on higher flights than just a division crown.</p>
<h3 id="VhuzUK">Matt O’Halloran: Chicago White Sox</h3>
<p id="vISiDu">It’s difficult to see any of the Guardians, Twins, Royals, or Tigers seriously challenging Chicago for the division crown. While they have a smattering of great players and exciting young talent, they’re all some pieces and a few years away from contention, but surprises happen.</p>
<p id="zdqb1W">The White Sox benefit from a relatively weak division but have the roster to compete with anybody in the league. Despite the loss of Carlos Rodon, their rotation is still one of the best in baseball, headlined by the trio of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease. Their bullpen is even better, with Liam Hendriks, Craig Kimbrel, Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, and Michael Kopech. </p>
<p id="ijfxhb">The lineup has a hole or two but has plenty of talent with a strong mix of youthful talent and veteran wisdom. The likes of Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Yoan Moncada will be another year wiser and another year stronger. They benefit from the veteran presences of guys like Tim Anderson and Jose Abreu. They could certainly be improved by another left-handed bat in the outfield or at second base - Michael Conforto would be a good fit - but more than enough pieces are there for this lineup to be amongst the most productive.</p>
<p id="vFvM2R">A lot of things would need to go wrong for the White Sox to be caught in this division, there’s simply too much talent on this roster and not enough of it on the other four. This is a unanimous pick for a reason. The White Sox have the clearest path to a division championship of any team in baseball in 2022, and it’s not particularly close.</p>
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2022/3/21/22974427/2022-al-central-predictions-chicago-white-sox-cleveland-guardians-detroit-tigers-minnesota-twinsKenny KellyAndrés ChávezMatt O'HalloranSteven MartanoEstevão Maximo