Fanshots

RetroSheet Data Available Through 1920s

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Sean Foreman discusses data mapped out through the decade of the '20s at RetroSheet, and provides a link to an article on the subject with plenty of interesting tidbits of information. He says he's leery of putting in the data up on Baseball Reference just because it's so far removed from the current "RetroSheet Era," and I pretty much agree with this. I'd rather have my years run together than have large missing holes.

Shyster Ball Reviews the Selena Roberts Book

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Another not-so-positive review. Calcaterra asserts it's not just the "anonymous sources" of the book, but that Roberts seems to be engaging in some very amatuerish psychology about how all of A-Rod's problems stem from his father leaving home. Seems like a winner.

Plans Moving Forward on San Jose A's

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Insidebayarea.com has some news on the early stages of the Athletics' potential move to San Jose. The city council will be voting Tuesday on a handful of principles regarding the potential move, while the city continues to work on gaining control of a potential stadium site. The mayor, however, states the A's will need to pay for their own stadium when and if the move happens. Still extremely early, but it's more than nothing.

When the Cubs score less than four, they lose. When they score four or more, they (almost always)...

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When the Cubs score less than four, they lose. When they score four or more, they (almost always) win.

New Run Estimator?

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Tom Tango links to a massive paper detailing a new run estimator designed by a reader of his. I've only skimmed it, and it's probably over my head, but he's looking for peer reviews, so if anyone out there is down to look it over and post comments (here and there), there's your link. Tango says he has one huge reservation he'll talk about tomorrow.

TBA: Most Improbable Scoreless Innings Streaks

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Sky Andercheck looks at the liklihood of a great pitcher throwing a scoreless inning by the run production of their opposing teams, and uses that to figure out the three most improbable scoreless innings streaks ever. Predictably, Orel Hershiser's famous 1988 streak comes out in front, with Bulldog's chances of shutting out a team for a whole inning suring that run coming in at about 80%. Doing that 59 times in a row, though, comes out as a one in 485,000 chance. The next two streaks are Walter Johnson's 55.2 straight innings in 1913 (one in 435,000) and Sal Maglie's 45 innings in 1950 (one in 419,000). For a pitcher today, the streak would have to go about 45 innings to pass those three in difficulty. So Greinke was about seven innings away from having the most improbable scoreless innings streak ever. Nifty!

Possible Effects of Going to a World Wide Draft - Lessons from Puerto Rico

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Looks at what adding Puerto Rico to the Rule 4 Draft has done to the amount of talent coming from there and what might happen to Venezuela and the Dominican Republic if they get included.

Fastball and Changeup Run Value by Movement

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Dave Allen at Baseball Analysts helps give pitch f/x movement data some context, by showing how fastballs and change-ups tend to move. There are some generalities, examples using specific pitchers, and then he tackles the question of how much movement is ideal? The caveat being, of course, that location and speed are significant factors, too. I have additional commentary on some pictures in the comments.

I called my mom today to wish her a happy Mother's Day. I said, "I'm going to try to hit a home run...

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I called my mom today to wish her a happy Mother's Day. I said, "I'm going to try to hit a home run for you, Mom." I didn't do that, but I took one away. I'm pretty sure she'll be happy with that. Making a catch like that is a feeling that's so good, so awesome, it's hard to describe. I thought I had a chance when Miguel Olivo got into that ball, but I had a lot of ground to cover, because I was shading him over toward right center. He's got some serious power. There's a lot that goes into making a play like that. You have to get to the wall, but not too close, and you have to time it just right. After the game, I went and watched the replay in the video room with Justin Speier, and he said I had some serious hang time on it. I felt like I could have dunked, two hands, over Shaq. I felt like a wide receiver did a slant, and I took him out.

Torii's Storiis: That catch is for you, Mom

FanGraphs adds ZIPS in-season projections

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Dan Szymborski gives us a great new tool for modifying a players preseason projection based on his current performance. I think he is just using Bayesian inference, so the numbers won't take into account specific changes in approach/velocity/injuries or anything else that isn't necessarily captured by the numbers, however, it is still a great thing to have. Dan also offers a spreadsheet, that you can download here, which allows you to input your favorite players current numbers and their name to get their update projection for the rest of the year. Thanks to his .250 wOBA so far this year, BtB's favorite player BJ Upton, now is only projected to have a .354 wOBA for the rest of the season, and only .334 wOBA this year. Sucks for whoever drafted him the BoaB league.