Beyond the Box Score: All Posts by Steven Martano

Marty’s musings: The free agent floodgates are open

2022-03-21T08:00:00-04:00

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

With the lockout over, it is now a sprint to fill out rosters and sign free agents.

Welcome to ‘Marty’s Musings’, my weekly column of numbers summarizing the happenings in the baseball world. I am your guide for taking an analytic look at the news and notes throughout the game, and highlighting key pitching matchups throughout the year.

With the floodgates on new signings last week it was an active free agent market. The Dodgers, Red Sox, and Twins made big splashes causing some projection adjustments. The Rockies made an eye-raising splash of their own.

News & Notes

6 - Years and $162 million deal that recent World Series Champion first baseman Freddie Freeman agreed to with the Dodgers. It seemed inevitable that Freeman would end up in LA, especially when rumors leaked that the Dodgers would give him an additional year on the deal compared to Atlanta’s offering. Freeman spent over a decade in a Braves uniform.

5.0 - 2021 fWAR for Matt Olson, whom the Braves traded for last week. Olson had two years left on his contract, and Atlanta was quick to lock him up to an eight-year $168m deal. Oakland unloaded the All Star caliber first basemen for four prospects, hoping they can hit on at least one of them.

$182m - Contract the Rockies doled out to former Cubs and Giants third baseman Kris Bryant. Another dumbfounding move by Colorado leadership, after trading Nolan Arenado last season and letting Trevor Story walk for virtually nothing, the Rockies went out and overpaid for Bryant, who is good, but not nearly as good as some of the other free agents, or Arenado himself! A truly head-scratching move.

2 - Excellent shortstops currently signed by the Red Sox, who inked Trevor Story to a six year $140m deal over the weekend. Story will be moving over to second base, which likely means Enrique Hernandez will see more reps in the outfield. The move was unexpected good news in Boston, where the Red Sox made incremental changes but had not made a big splash. Boston is now projected to finish ahead of the Rays (but still behind the Yankees and Jays) per PECOTA rankings.

10 - Years since Zack Greinke pitched in a Royals uniform, but the 38 year old starter is returning to his roots, after having signed a one year $13 million deal with Kansas City.

2 - Big trades for the Yankees last week. New York has finally moved on from underperforming (and often regressing) backstop Gary Sanchez, sending him and third baseman and fan favorite Gio Urshela to the Twins for a deal highlighted by Josh Donaldson. Luke Voit.was shipped-off to the Padres in exchange for pitcher Justin Lange. The Yankees are projected to win the division despite not inking any major free agents this offseason.

3 - Year deal the Twins agreed to with shortstop Carlos Correa, who has an opt-out after year two. The Twins are apparently going for it after an injury plagued season that derailed any hopes of competitiveness in 2021. Supposedly the Orioles offered Correa 10 years and $300m, but he instead chose Minnesota for three years and $105.3m. Minnesota also added starting pitcher Sonny Gray last week.

$35m - Current payroll for the Cleveland Guardians, once a perennial contender in the American League Central, has now turned into a piggy bank for ownership. Cleveland’s payroll was more than twice that amount twenty years ago, it’s a shame what has happened to the franchise.

17 - Days until Opening Day.

***

Steven Martano is an Editor at Beyond the Box Score, a Contributing Prospect Writer for the Colorado Rockies at Purple Row, and a contributing writer for The Hardball Times. You can follow him on Twitter at @SMartano

Is 2022 the year that Joe Girardi gets the Phillies back to the playoffs?

2022-03-17T09:00:00-04:00

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Blown saves were the hallmark of the 2021 Phillies, but their bullpen additions so far leave much to be desired.

The Phillies had a chance to be a playoff team last season, but could not harness an MVP season from Bryce Harper into a playoff berth. The Phillies were in first place on August 14th, but their bullpen and offense simply were not good enough to get them to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

The main story for last year’s Phillies team is that the bullpen blowing 34 saves cost them a playoff opportunity. In six games, Philly had the lead late in games and blow two saves in the same game. On May 8th against the Braves, they actually blew three saves, giving up a 3-1 ninth-inning lead, a 4-3 10th inning lead, AND a 7-4 11th inning lead. Wow.

The Phils signed Corey Knebel in December pre-lockout and since the lockout, they have brought in Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia. Knebel is a solid pickup who is trying to reset his value after an injury-shortened 25 ⅔ innings in 2021. He was quite effective in those innings, posting 30 strikeouts and a 169 ERA+, but much like the rest of the Phillies bullpen, he gave up more walks than one likes to see out of any elite reliever.

While Knebel is an upgrade, Hand gave up 26 walks and nine home runs in just 64 innings (and a walk or homer every other appearance. Familia has posted a negative fWAR in his last three seasons and is basically coming off divisional rival’s junk pile.

Philly has the same basic rotation coming back in 2022. The questions are whether or not Zack Wheeler will be as good in 2022 as he was in 2021. Likewise, will Alex Bohm and Aaron Nola be as bad in 2022 as they were last year?

Wheeler led the National League in innings (213 ⅓) and strikeouts (247) and carried over a strong performance from the COVID shortened 2020. He’s emerged as a true ‘ace’, who will anchor a rotation with a number of questions marks behind him

Aaron Nola posted his worst year since 2016 by ERA+, but his strikeouts per nine and walks per nine were both better than his career average. Zach Eflin was mediocre, and exactly league average (with a 100 ERA+). For a number three starter with a questionable number two in front of him, it’s a lot of downside.

The Phillies offense is light in some of the modern power positions, though it is still anchored by annual MVP candidate Bryce Harper. Harper is the brightest spot in a boom-or-bust lineup that also benefits from JT Realmuto. Realmuto is an asset to the offense in that he can log innings behind the plate as well as at first base, but when he’s behind the dish, there’s not much of a power threat at first base which is still a need.

On the other side of the infield, the one big question is whether or not Alec Bohm will take a step forward after a putrid sophomore performance. In his first full season, he posted a -1.4 bWAR. He hit only seven home runs and posted an anemic .247/.305/.342 slash line.

The Phillies still don’t have a good option in center field and will be again sending out Odubel Herrera. Their acquisition of Kyle Schwarber brings a boom-of-bust approach to either a corner outfield slot or the designated hitter position. Schwarber had a solid 2021 split between the Nationals and Red Sox, but it’s hard to see a career .237 hitter as a strong DH option.

Expectations

PECOTA projects the Phillies at a mediocre 82-80 which seems fair considering the roster is not much improved over last year despite the additions. While the Phillies have added pieces both before and after the lockout, they’re not the pieces that will elevate this club to a 90-win team to compete in the NL East.

In a division with the Braves and Mets, Philly is a clear third-place favorite. They beat up on the lowly Nationals last year (13-6 record) but were under .500 against the Marlins (9-10).

Win Total Prediction: 83-79

It’s unlikely that the 2022 squad again sets a record for blown saves, so figure that adds a couple more notches to the win total. It still does not look like enough to get them into an expanded playoff format.

***

Marty’s musings: prepare for a tidal wave of transactions

2022-03-14T08:00:00-04:00

Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

After a near-100 day lockout, there’s lots to do before Opening Day.

The MLBPA and owners finally came to an agreement after a three-month hiatus. The delay will cost the league the first week of the season, though we are still in store for a 162-game season. As we await the free agent blitz that is inevitably going to happen in the next week-plus, we take a look at the most recent news from around the league.

News & Notes

99 - Day lockout imposed by the owners that ended in a deal on a new collective bargaining agreement last week. Having lost over three months, there are still plenty of excellent free agents unsigned as we get into the middle of March.

4/7 - The new Opening Day date following the work stoppage. With many All Star caliber free agent players still on the market, including Carolos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, and Trevor Story.

3.3 - Win pitcher Chris Bassitt is the Mets newest rotation acquisition after a trade with the Oakland Athletics. Bassitt had a great 2021, posting career-highs in innings, strikeout rate, xERA, FIP. With a top-three of Scherzer, deGrom, and Bassitt, the Mets pitching staff is shaping up as one of the best in the National League.

1 - Reliever the Philadelphia Phillies added since the lockout. Philly signed Familiar to a one-year $6 million deal. Last season the Phillies blew a ridiculous 34 saves!

24 - Days until Opening Day.

***

Unless Boston spends big, their luck will likely run out in 2022

2022-03-08T09:00:00-05:00

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

By spending on some free agents post-lockout, the Red Sox can make-or-break their 2022. They are much more likely to go cheap than to go big.

Last season the Red Sox were supposed to be in a ‘rebuilding year’, resetting payroll, building up younger players, and essentially conceding the division. Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the basement — Boston was actually competitive in 2021, coming within two wins of a World Series berth.

The Sox ended the season with 92 wins, tied with the Yankees, whom they beat in the Wild Card game. Boston’s magical run came to a screeching halt when they played a much more talented Houston Astros team, but a season that ends in Game Six of an ALCS can be considered a success by nearly any metric.

Coming into this season, the Red Sox still have the same lineup holes as in the past few years. First base has been a black hole for many years, and Boston is getting very limited offensive production out of two-thirds of their outfield (Alex Verdugo being the one exception).

The make-or-break moves for the Red Sox did not come before the owners locked out the players, and with some really talented impact-guys still available on the free agent market, Boston has a chance to position themselves as American League East favorites. My bet, however, is that they won’t take that plunge.

Let’s assume Boston does not sign Freddie Freeman or Anthony Rizzo, and instead roll out Bobby Dalbec and his 107 2021 wRC+ at first base. Dalbec hits for neither power nor average, and understandably puts the Sox in the bottom-ten at offensive production out of first base.

The Red Sox also don’t have three everyday outfielders. Alex Verdugo is the only true outfielder who hits like a corner outfielder. Verdugo can play either corner spot, but even when Enrique Hernández is tossed into the mix moving from second base to the outfield, Boston is still one decent player short. J.D. Martinez can play some right field, but he’s in the lineup only for his bat, as he’s a defensive liability in the field.

In the infield, it’s boom-or-bust. We’ve already pointed out that first base is not yielding much production, but the left side of the infield is the Red Sox greatest strength. Last season Xander Bogaerts had a career-year with a 5.2 fWAR, expect him to be a five-win player again in 2022.

Similarly, Rafael Devers posted a 4.7 fWAR, putting up career highs in homers (38) and walk percentage (9.3 percent). It’s a strong combination of Devers getting more patient at the plate, while also driving a good amount of extra base hits.

Second base will be manned well when Hernández is there…but again, Boston will likely play him out of position in center more often than would be ideal due to their lack of outfield depth. While he’s a serviceable outfielder, he’s really a second baseman.

When it comes to pitching, the top of the rotation looks strong on paper, but the real wild card is Chris Sale, who only pitched 42 ⅔ innings last season. With a strikeout rate that was his lowest since 2016, and a walk rate that was the highest since his sophomore season in 2011, the once dominant flamethrower looks more mortal with each passing season.

Nathan Eovaldi had a career-year in 2021, but it’s pretty rare that a pitcher over 30 has a breakout season that is repeatable. Eovaldi got pretty lucky keeping the ball in the yard last year (a measly 8.2 percent home run to fly ball rate), though he did limit hard contact by a wide margin compared to previous seasons. If he can limit hard contact again, he could be as effective, but that’s a big ‘if’.

Behind these starters are Nick Pivetta, who is always expected to be better than he is, though he’s only put up a career total of 6.3 wins since being called up to the majors in 2017. He and Tanner Houck are not projected to be strong, and again, the Sox lack of depth means that any injuries to any one of these pitchers will lead to trouble. In a rotation that has had durability concerns (Sale and Eovaldi in particular) it’s not a formidable situation.

The bullpen last season was an asset in Boston, and part of the reason the Sox made the playoffs. Bullpens are notoriously volatile, but the Red Sox effectively have the same cast of Matt Barnes (closer), Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura, and former Yankee farmhand, Rule Five draftee Garrett Whitlock. It’s a strong relief corps that is one of the strenghts of the team.

Expectations

Other than the Orioles, it wouldn’t necessarily be shocking if any of the other four teams won the division, though the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays all have a higher liklihood to win the American League East.

The Blue Jays were only a game behind the Yankees and Sox. Toronto has made sigificant advancement to their lineup and last season they could just as easily have vaulted ahead of New York and Boston since they significantly underperformed compared to their run differential. Toronto is my pick to win the AL East, I don’t see the Red Sox finishing within eight games of Toronto, and they likely will finish behind the Rays and Yankees as well.

Last year the Rays ran away with the division, winning over 100 games, I just don’t see Boston competing for the East this season (it’s also worth noting that they didn’t really compete for the division last year either, despite making it within two games of the World Series).

Win Total Prediction: 83-79 (.512)*

The Red Sox overachieved last year, and they did nothing to plug any of the glaring holes. They didn’t shore-up a questionable pitching staff, and have limited depth if/when things go wrong on the injury side, especially with a fragile Chris Sale.

The Blue Jays are a year older and a year better. Their rotation stacks up better than Boston’s, and the Rays always find ways to compete and beat their higher-payroll divisional foes. The Yankees also are formidable opponents, and per PECOTA, are projected to win the East. It’s going to be interesting to see the follow-up to a magical 2021 in Boston.

***

Ryan Zimmerman’s retirement ends connections to the Nats’ early-days

2022-02-24T12:00:00-05:00

Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

With Ryan Zimmerman’s retirement baseball loses another of a dying breed: the one-franchise player.

Modern baseball players are far more transient than they were during our grandparent’s generation. Players move around more than ever, chasing life-altering contracts and money in an open market that has been lucrative for most players, and especially those at the top.

Ryan Zimmerman is one of those increasingly rare players who played his entire career with one franchise and in one city. Zimmerman was the first-ever drafted National, as Washinton picked him with the fourth overall pick following their move from Montreal. His career is intrinsically linked with the franchise to-date, as Zimmerman has been on the roster since the team’s relocation.

Debuting in 2005, only Yadier Molina has posted more consecutive years with one team (the Cardinals’ backstop made his debut in 2004). In 2005, Adam Wainwright also made his St. Louis debut, in 2007 it was Joey Votto, and in 2008 Clayton Kershaw came on the scene (as did Brett Gardner).

As Zimmerman’s success went, so did the Nationals’. In his 16 seasons in a Nats uni (we’re not counting his opt-out 2020), Zimmerman generated the team’s most offensive bWAR three times, he garnered MVP votes four times, and made two All Star games.

His 40.1 bWAR is nearly tied with Max Scherzer’s 40.8 for the most-ever in Nationals’ franchise history, though quite a bit behind Expos’ Hall of Famers Gary Carter (55.8), Tim Raines (49.1), and Andre Dawson (48.4).

In 16 seasons, Zimmerman ended his career with a .277/.341/.475 slash line, and 284 home runs. With a hit total of 1,846, he was probably two years away from getting to the 2,000 mark. His 116 OPS and wRC+ is solid as well.

Over the course of his career with the Nats, Zimmeran played in 35 postseason games. Washington got bounced out of the playoffs in the NLDS their first three postseason appearances, but in 2019 broke through for the franchise’s (Montreal and DC) first-ever World Series championship.

Zimmerman has cemented his place in Nationals history having been been synonymous with the team since being drafted in 2005. During his tenure he has served as a fan favorite and franchise icon, despite never really ascending to MLB stardom. Although it’s not likely he’ll ever make it to Cooperstown, he’ll undoubtedly be enshrined in the Nationals Hall of Fame, which is a solid legacy.

***

Marty’s musings: delayed Spring Training looms

2022-02-07T09:00:10-05:00

Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images

We’re on the cusp of Spring Training with no deal in sight.

It’s been a while since we did a Musings round-up, and as we head into the middle of February, the entire baseball community holds its breath to find out if Spring Training will start on time (unlikely) and if the season is in jeopardy (questionable, but still possible).

News & Notes

1 - Player the BBWAA elected to the Hall of Fame in this year’s class. David Ortiz was the only player elected this year. It was the Ortiz’ first time on the ballot and he garnered 77.9 percent of the vote. His legendary status as a key member of the Red Sox, postseason heroics to ‘break the curse’, and serving as one of the best designated hitters the game has ever seen put him over the top.

66 / 65.2 - Percentages that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens received in their last year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot. It’s certainly awkward that Ortiz, a player linked to PEDs, got in on the first try while Bonds and Clemens have effectively been blackballed from the Hall, wallowing on the ballot for 10 years and never receiving 75 percent of the vote total.

5 - Teams projected to win at least 90 games (in a full season) according to FanGraphs’ 2022 projections, which the site released last week. The Dodgers lead the pack, with a projected win total of 94. The Astros are the highest in the American League at 91, and the Padres, Yankees, and Braves round-out the 90+ list at 90 wins. Three teams are projected under 70 wins, the PIrates (68), Rockies (66), and Orioles (64).

19 - Days until Spring Training is supposed to begin. Several teams’ pitchers and catchers are slated to report next week, but that’s highly unlikely to happen.

52 - Days until Opening Day is scheduled. We’ll see if it happens on time.

***

David Ortiz is the lone inductee into the Hall of Fame class of 2022

2022-01-25T18:34:19-05:00

Staff Photo By Nancy Lane/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images

Despite PED controversy and borderline numbers, David Ortiz has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame.

On Tuesday evening the Baseball Writers Association of America announced their selection for the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2022. Despite the blockbuster names on the list like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens (arguably the best hitter and pitcher in the history of baseball, by the numbers), the committee selected late-bloomer and postseason hero David Ortiz for selection.

Ortiz is a Boston legend who put the entire city on his shoulders and threw off 86 years of frustration, futility, and failure. His postseason dominance was the difference in an incredibly competitive series with the Yankees in 2004, a time when most New Englanders left the Red Sox for dead after losing three consecutive ALCS games.

In that 2004 postseason, Ortiz went 22-for-55, posting a monster slash line of .400/.515/.764 with five home runs (two of them in the most crucial of spots). It was an amazing 14 game run for Boston, and without Ortiz, they absolutely would have come up short. All-told, across 85 postseason games (76 of them in a Red Sox uniform) Papi smashed 17 home runs.

Ortiz is a member of the 500 home run club (541) and was a regular extra base hitter. He even led the league in doubles at the age of 40, smacking 48 two-baggers in 2016. Ortiz totaled 2,472 hits, led the league in several different categories including walks in 2006 and 2007, OBP in 2007, and total bases in 2006 (when he also led the league in home runs and RBIs).

With a career OPS+ at 141, Ortiz’ bat never quit. Not only did he lead the league in doubles in 2016, he also led the league in slugging (.621) and OPS (1.021). It’s pretty surprising that he didn’t come back for a swan song considering those numbers.

Ortiz received MVP votes in eight of his 14 seasons, never finishing thier than second place. He is a 10-time all star, and he earned himself seven silver slugger awards.

It’s remarkable the Twins released Ortiz following his first 20 home run season. As a beefy, one-dimensional 27-year-old, Minnesota just didn’t see the upside in bringing him back on a $1 to $3 million deal that would have been agreed to in arbitration.

The downside of Ortiz on-field candidacy was always the rub that he was not a good defender. He was a slow, bat-first slugger, who barely played the field. When he did play on the field, it wasn’t pretty. The reality though, is that in 21st century baseball, that doesn’t really matter. Roles for starting pitchers and relievers have evolved, as has the role of the slugger. That may change with time, but there wasn’t a team in Major League Baseball who wouldn’t have taken peak David Ortiz if they had the opportunity.

Despite the celebration that’s happening in the Ortiz house, and around New England in general, the Ortiz election calls into question the entire BBWAA process for selection into Cooperstown. This is especially the case since Bonds and Clemens have reached their tenth and final year on the ballot. The polarizing duo barely sniffed the 75 percent vote required for induction, topping out in the mid-60s in their tenth and final appearance on the ballot.

Ortiz supposedly failed a PED test in 2003, the cusp of his offensive ascension, yet being elected on his first ballot, he doesn’t appear to have been penalized at all by the voters. Sure, the more traditional writers, most of whom do not make their ballots public, and some of whom apparently don’t even follow who has already been selected, will spurn Ortiz for a myriad of reasons (they don’t like designated hitters being selected, he didn’t have enough ‘magic’ numbers, his one-dimensional play, etc.) but sometimes the play and cultural impact of a player transcend these arbitrary personal rules and biases.

Ortiz’ legacy is cemented in Boston. Next to Ted Williams, he’s the most impactful and significant player in Red Sox history, and as we know, even Teddy Ballgame never delivered the city a World Series championship. Congrats to David Ortiz.

Despite the controversy and all the hand-wringing, Ortiz’ election to Cooperstown is a well-deserved honor. An entire region is appreciative of Ortiz’ career as it’s good to celebrate the good times on frigid January nights in New England.

***

Is Bobby Grich stealthily Hall of Fame worthy?

2022-01-15T09:00:00-05:00

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The former Orioles and Angels second baseman deserves more of a look for enshrinement into Cooperstown.

Today is former Orioles’ and Angels’ infielder Bobby Grich’s 73rd birthday. Grich retired in 1986 after a near two decade career that began with the Orioles in 1970. Despite an incredibly productive and long career, Grich barely got any recognition for Hall of Fame honors after his retirement. Since making his way onto the ballot five years after his retirement, Grich only earned 2.6 percent of the Hall vote in his first and only year on the ballot.

The Veterans’ Committee and Era’s committees have not seemed eager to debate his candidacy either, as he’s yet to be nominated for any of the four Veterans Committee (now called Eras Committee) ballots for which he’s been eligible so far.

Admittedly, I knew little of Grich’s career before poking around his Baseball Reference page last week in advance of his birthday. With numerous All Star appearances, a handful of Gold Gloves, and an annual OPS+ well over 100 (career 125) , I began to wonder why a middle infielder with a strong bat during a period mostly dominated by pitchers is overlooked. The more I peeled back the onion and looked at the numbers, the more I wondered why he was barely even considered for Hall induction.

There are many philosophies regarding induction into the Hall of Fame, but in this post, what I wish to accomplish is to put the career of Bobby Grich into context of his contemporaries, as well as in the context of the other second basemen enshrined in Cooperstown.

From a traditional numbers standpoint, Grich does not have any of the golden numbers that essentially thrust a player to Hall status. He amassed only 1,833 hits and 224 home runs during his 17 year career. Grich was defined by his excellent defense, with his bat overlooked due to his strong on base percentage numbers at a time when batting average and RBIs were considered king.

It’s also worth noting that Grich’s timing was unfortunate, as he was on the ballot for the first time in 1992, the same year as Joe Morgan, who is undoubtedly a better second baseman than Grich by nearly any measure.

Grich led the league in home runs in 1981 with a grand total of…22, which tells us quite a bit about the offensive environment of the late-80s and early-80s. His career 224 home runs is better than 15 of the 20 second base Hall of Famers. During his career from 1970 to 1986. During this time, even Joe Morgan only hit 228 home runs, just four more than Grich.

Due to this low offense period, Grich’s career .794 OPS bests all but six Hall of Fame second basement. In 14 of his 17 seasons, Grich posted an OPS+ of at least 109, with his peak seasons at 165 in 1981, 145 in 1979, and 142 in 1983. Grich’s wRC+ numbers are similarly excellent, with a career 129 wRC+, and an entire career of an annual wRC+ over 100 (sometimes significantly so) from 1971 to 1986.

A glove-first second baseman who plays every day, gets on base at a .370 OBP clip, and who hits for some power in an environment derived of power sounds pretty darn good! Compared to other second basemen in the Hall of Fame, Grich’s case looks pretty solid as well.

By bWAR, Grich’s 71 Wins and 58.7 JAWS ranks eighth for second baseman in MLB history. His WAR metrics are more than all three second baseman who have been inducted into the Hall of Fame since 1992: Ryne Sandburg, Roberto Alomar, and Craig Biggio.

Considering the lack of momentum and attention in even debating his as a Hall of Fame candidate, Grich is a longshot to ever make the Hall of Fame. unlike Bert Blyleven or Jim Rice, Grich himself is not rallying people around his cause which is part of the reason he quietly and unceremoniously went one-and-done on the Hall ballot. To further the point, Grich himself points out that he never had a career-defining moment that can propel even a mediocre player to the Hall of Fame (see Mazeroski, Bill).

Unfortunately it seems Grich is destined to be remembered as a very good player, if he’s remembered much at all.

***

Mariners’ long-time third baseman Kyle Seager is retiring

2022-01-03T12:00:00-05:00

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

After a solid decade-long career, Mariners’ third baseman Kyle Seager is calling it quits.

Last week veteran third baseman Kyle Seager announced his retirement. The Mariners took Seager in the third round of the 2009 draft and got plenty of bang-for-their-buck, as Seager served as a staple at third base for over a decade.

Defying expectations was a hallmark for Seager. As he advanced through the minors, he never cracked the Mariners top-five prospects. In 2011, Baseball America had him ranked ninth-best in the Ms’ organization. Seager ultimately played ⅓ of the season for the Mariners in his rookie season.

After his partial season, Seager really hit his stride, playing in 155 games in 2012, and posting a 108 wRC+ along with excellent defense. His 3.8 fWAR set the pace, as Seager averaged 4.3 fWAR between 2012 and 2017. With defensive metrics running from slightly above average to excellent and an above average bat, Seager was one of the most consistent third basemen of the 2010s.

After two successful seasons of 2012 and 2013, Seager hit his peak in 2014. He earned his first All Star appearance, and finished the season with 25 home runs, a .268/.334/.454 slash line, and again, strong defense. His 5.2 fWAR was the highest of his career, and earned him a long-term seven-year $100 million deal with Seattle.

After inking the long-term deal after the 2014 season, Seager came out as consistent as ever in 2015. His slash line was close to identical to 2014, and he mashed 26 homers. 2015 he tied his career high 5.2 fWAR, this time hitting the 30 home run mark, and raising his slash line to .278/.359/.499.

Seager continued his productivity through the latter part of his contract with Seattle, though the last four years were not as strong as the first three. In 2018, Seager’s walk rate declined to a meager six percent, his strikeout rate increased a few percentage points compared to prior years, to nearly 22 percent, and he garnered a wRC+ of only 83, and an fWAR of 1.5.

2019 was a bounce-back year, with Seager taking more walks, and incurring fewer strikeouts. He posted his seventh 3.0+ fWAR season in eight seasons and again showed strong defensive metrics.

Seager certainly has more in the tank, should he have chosen to continue to play. Last season may have been his worst offensive year since 2018 (he was right around league average, with a 99 wRC+), but good defense, and the strongest power performance of his career (35 home runs!) led to a 2.5 win season.

Kyle Seager isn’t a Hall of Fame caliber player, but in an age where players roam from team to team, and long-term deals often make players and front offices look bad by the end of them,. Seager served as a pillar to the 2010s Mariners.

Unfortunately, Seattle never put a strong enough team together for Seager to appear in a postseason game. A roster of 25 Kyle Seager-like players would do some pretty significant damage.

***

The Mets announced they hired veteran skipper Buck Showalter

2021-12-22T11:00:00-05:00

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

In hiring Buck Showalter as manager, the Mets prioritized seniority and turnaround experience above all else.

Earlier this week the Mets announced they hired skipper Buck Showalter to serve as Manager for the next three seasons. A thirty-year managerial veteran, Showalter is still only 65 years old, with decades of experience managing teams coming out of years and years of losing.

Showalter got the nod to manage the Yankees from then-owner George Steinbrenner. After a decade of turmoil throughout the 1980s, the Yankees chose Showalter to inject someone different into a culture of dysfunction and futility. Showalter ended up managing the team to a combined 313-268 record, a first-place position when the 1994 strike happened, and then an American League Divisional Series appearance in 1995, the Yankees’ first postseason appearance in 14 years.

The Yankees offered Showalter a two-year deal for delivering their first playoff berth in over a decade, but Showalter spurned the offer since it was conditional on him firing hitting coach Rick Down. The rest of the Yankees’ dynasty is history, as they went on to win the 1996 World Series, and then three more under Joe Torre from 1998 to 2000.

Despite a premature exit in New York, Showalter had built a reputation as a culture-building manager and the Diamondbacks hired him as their expansion skipper in 1998. The team’s first year they managed only 65 wins, but in year two, having gone out and spent money on Randy Johnson (among others), the team won the National League West in 1999. In 2000 the DBacks won 85 games, but missed the postseason. They fired Showalter, and again he was out a year before his former team won a World Series.

The perennial last-place Rangers (fourth place out of four from 2000 to 2003) hired Showalter in 2003. Things did not go as well in Texas, as the team never finished above third place during Showalter’s four-year tenure. Unlike in New York and Arizona however, it took Ron Washington five years to get the team to the playoffs and their first World Series appearance in franchise history.

In 2010 the Orioles hired Buck to manage the team, a position he held from the 2011 season until the 2018 season. The Orioles hadn’t sniffed a playoff berth since the mid-90s, finishing with a below-500 record every year from 1998 to 2011. In 2012 however, Showalter won the AL Manager of the Year Award (his second) after having led Baltimore to a 93-win season, and an AL Wild Card win.

Baltimore followed that success up with four more .500-or-better seasons, including two more playoff appearances and an AL East pennant in 2014.

Buck’s been on the sidelines since his Baltimore contract expired — this following a franchise-worst 115 losses in 2018.

The Mets haven’t been wandering in the wilderness for too long, after all, they made it to the World Series in 2015 and made the playoffs again in 2016. However, those two seasons seem more like outliers than a commitment to success demanded of a large market team.

After the firing of Carlos Beltran amidst revelations of the Astros cheating scandal, and a public ownership change that was desperately needed, the Mets are in need of a reboot from the top-down. Steve Cohen is investing more than the Wilpons have in years, and is clearly trying to change the way the Mets do business.

Cohen’s choice of Buck Showalter makes a ton of sense, even if the team still is without a long-term President (Sandy Alderson will remain in the role, but he’s not the long-term solution).

Showalter is an old-school baseball man who has been open to leveraging analytics. He has seen the highs and lows of teams coming out of a playoff desert, and teams figuring out the newest version of themselves.

Showalter deserves another shot at managing a team and hopefully this time, he gets a long enough leash to actually see a rebuilt team to sustained success. It would be a welcome change for Mets fans as well, who view their team with skepticism and cynicism.

***