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The Twins are for real (except for the ones who aren’t)

Is this team really as good as it looks?

Minnesota Twins v Tampa Bay Rays Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

Given that the Minnesota Twins have the largest division lead in the American League, now is a good time for pundits to say, “you know, I really liked them in the spring.” Most of the time, that statement is false. I defy you, dear reader, to find one prognostication from February or March that didn’t project Cleveland to win the AL Central.

Beyond the Box Score is no exception. Some hack writer covered the Twins for our season preview series, and he barely entertained the idea that they might be a playoff team. What an idiot!

Around the same time, a much less hack-ish writer named Devan Fink showed that the Twins needed to sign both Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel to have a decent shot at the division.

Indeed, no team’s playoff odds have increased more than Minnesota’s since the beginning of the season, as per FanGraphs. The AL Central chart is almost comical:

(Side note: The Tigers division odds were as high as 0.5 percent on April 23. Isn’t that adorable?)

Whenever a team surpasses expectations to this degree, there’s always fear of collapse or expectation of regression. If their success is derived from players performing over their heads, they will probably come back to the pack, and the bottom will fall out.

Will that fate await the Twins?

For Real

Byron Buxton

Buxton is the rare ballplayer who doesn’t need much offense to be a star. In 2017, he accrued 3.5 fWAR in spite of a 90 wRC+. His defense and baserunning are that good. With a 120 wRC+ this year, he’s finally joined baseball’s elite. Middling Statcast numbers suggest his offense may come back to somewhere around league average, but that’s more than enough. Besides, when you can get extra base hits like this, you don’t need to bang them off the wall:

For roughly 160 years, that exact type of hit was a single. Buxton has broken the physics of baseball.

José Berríos

Not only is Berríos for real, he still has room to improve. His strikeout rate is down a few ticks (though not enough to worry about). However, his 4.4 percent walk rate is among the top ten in MLB. His home run rate is almost identical to last year’s despite a much more dinger-conducive environment. If he can keep the walks suppressed and the home runs (relatively) limited while picking the strikeouts back up, he’s a Cy Young contender. He may be one anyway.

Martín Pérez

Pérez is a completely different pitcher now that he’s with the Twins. He picked up a cutter in Spring Training, which he now throws 33.8 percent of the time. Baseball Prospectus’ Aaron Gleeman detailed the repertoire change thoroughly.

Max Kepler

Kepler is walking and striking out about as much as he usually does. His BABIP is within five points of his career average. The only real difference is his ISO, which is through the roof.

Max Kepler ISO

Year ISO
Year ISO
2016 .189
2017 .182
2018 .184
2019 .273

The reason for the increased power is simple: he’s hitting the ball better. His 9.7 percent barrel rate is 3.5 points higher than the MLB average and 4.1 points above his career average.

The Bullpen

The Twins don’t have any big name relievers, but these guys are a big part of the team’s success. Ryne Harper, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Mike Morin all average at least 5.0 strikeouts per walks.

Maybe Real, Maybe Not

Jorge Polanco

Not only has Polanco been the best player on the Twins, he’s been one of the best overall players in the sport. His 2.7 fWAR is tied for fifth best in the AL. Statcast loves what he’s done so far, putting his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all in the 84th percentile or better. His .364 BABIP suggests he might regress a little though. He’s a heckuva player, but he won’t likely maintain this pace for the full season.

Jake Odorizzi

You know how home runs are out of control this season? Not for Odorizzi. He’s surrendered just four bombs in 70 13 innings. A 4.9 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio in 2019 isn’t built to last, but there are other good signs as well, such as a career best 28.6 percent strikeout rate. This may be a career year for him, but the home run bug will bite him eventually.

Not For Real

Mitch Garver

Babe Ruth holds the career record for slugging percentage with .690. Mitch Garver’s was .405 entering this season, but this year it’s .693. In other words, he went from a league average hitter to a Ruthian slugger. His 29.4 home run-to-fly ball ratio would be eighth highest in MLB if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Expect a few more of those to turn into fly outs, unless you really believe he’s The Babe reincarnated.

Jason Castro

Here is Castro’s wRC+ year-by-year since 2014:

Jason Castro wRC+

Year wRC+
Year wRC+
2014 86
2015 80
2016 90
2017 93
2018 39
2019 145

Injuries limited Castro’s playing time and effectiveness last year, but given that he turns 32 next week, he almost certainly didn’t become a masher all of a sudden. He’s always been a below average hitter; now he’s 45 percent better than the league. More likely, he slips back to the kind of hitter he’s been for his whole career.

Are the Twins For Real?

Yes! (Mostly.)

A lot of their best players give cause for optimism. Even breakouts like Polanco and Odorizzi probably have some fire beneath the smoke. Besides, even if the Twins do regress, no one in the division appears capable of challenging them.

It’s time to buy in on this team’s playoff chances if you haven’t already. Ah, but of course you have! You told everyone they would win the division back in March, didn’t you?

Daniel R. Epstein is an elementary special education teacher and president of the Somerset County Education Association. In addition to BtBS, he writes at Tweets @depstein1983