Marty’s musings: extensions, retirements, and free agents

Welcome to ‘Marty’s Musings’, my weekly column of numbers summarizing the happenings in the baseball world. I am your guide for taking an analytic look at the news and notes throughout the game.

In today’s Musings, we continue to play the waiting game on the game’s two biggest free agent stars, while a couple young starters ink extensions with their current teams, while we also get a revised look at PECOTA and FanGraph projections.

All this news and more in this week’s Musings.

News and Notes

75 - Percent of the way towards a Bryce Harper / Philadelphia Phillies agreement….maybe? Probably? Who knows at this point, as it seems the Manny Machado / Bryce Harper camps may be demonstrating some gamesmanship with rumors. Last week rumors continued to intensify, with the Phillies leading the narrative as the favorite to land Harper. The Padres also reportedly made offers to both players.

4 - Year / $40 million extension Luis Severino and the Yankees agreed to last week. The deal also includes a 2023 team option.

45 - Million dollar, four-year extension Aaron Nola and the Phillies agreed to last week. In a deal that isn’t too dissimilar to Severino’s, the Phils ink their young stud to a multi-year deal, buying out arbitration years, and structuring a deal with a similar team option for a fifth year.

408 - Minor League plate appearances in 2018 for Vlad Guerrero Jr. in 2018. During that span, he hit .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs. He earned numerous accolades as the number one prospect entering 2019, however the Blue Jays have stated he will start the season in the minors in an obvious service-time manipulation play. It’s disheartening as a baseball fan to see a player so ready for the big leagues mired in the minors.

2019 - Will be CC Sabathia’s last season. The veteran starter announced that this will be his final year. I wrote last week about how Sabathia’s numbers don’t mirror those of some of the 20th century greats, but that his career is defining as a 21st century Hall of Famer.

3 - Of the best teams in baseball are projected to be in the American League per PECOTA’s 2019 projections, which were slightly revised last week. The most surprisinging is the Yankees’ projection for seven more wins than the Red Sox, and the Cubs sub-.500 projection.

97 - FanGraph’s Depth Charts on the other hand project Boston for the league’s most wins, with 97. Slightly ahead of New York. They are also more bullish on the Cubs projecting them to win the Central with a high-80s win total.

1st - Round draft pick for the Athletics, Kyle Murray has decided to pursue football over baseball in an unsurprising decision. He tweeted his intentions last week, stating he wanted to follow his true passion over baseball. It’s a loss for the sport, which would have had fun with Murray in the league, and also could have potentially supported a two-sport athlete.

38 - Days until Opening Day!