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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 10/10/19

The Cardinals’ fateful first inning; the Nats’ dramatic comeback; the continued Kershaw playoff narrative

MLB: NLDS-Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Craig Edwards: The Cardinals scored ten runs in the first inning of Game Five, dropping the Braves’ LCS odds from 47.5% to 2.1% in just a few minutes, all because of that one, fateful inning. Yet one can’t stop from thinking that was also a Pyrrhic victory from the Cards, who still put Jack Flaherty out there for over 100 pitches when he could have just as easily been skipped for Game One. If that backfires, that inning will become a blessing and a curse.

Baseball Prospectus | Matthew Trueblood ($): The Nationals are owners of an NLDS win, something they have never done, and it’s because their stars executed when needed. While the Dodgers watched Clayton Kershaw implode in place of, say, Kenta Maeda or Adam Kolarek, Dave Roberts made a crucial error that would ultimately set up that epic grand slam by Howie Kendrick off of Joe Kelly.

The Ringer | Michael Baumann: Speaking of Kershaw: we now know that the postseason #narrative is literally never going to go away. He’s certainly past his prime and he technically should not have even been in the game, but it’s still brutal to watch one of the best modern pitchers ever consistently crack under pressure in the playoffs.