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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 1/15/19

Free agency is broken; more of the same from DJ LeMahieu; the Stanton deal as a red herring; Kyler Murray chooses the NFL

NCAA Football: College Football Playoff Semifinal-Orange Bowl-Alabama vs Oklahoma Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Ringer | Michael Baumann: It seems like there’s a labor stoppage coming in 2021, even though the MLBPA seems ill-equipped to handle such labor militancy. The norms of payouts—young players through pre-arb and arbitration, and then paying out veterans—is collapsing before our eyes, and we have to ask ourselves what is worse: that the league colluded like 1987, or the rules and practices they put in place are more effective than intentional malfeasance?

FanGraphs | Jeff Sullivan: DJ LeMahieu is going to be fine for the Yankees. Not great, not a star, but a contact-hitting middle infielder with a batted ball profile looking something like... Derek Jeter.

Baseball Prospectus | Matthew Trueblood ($): Comparing free agents to Giancarlo Stanton is probably a bad idea because it was never a contract signed in good faith. For Jeffrey Loria, the goal was to make a bad situation in Miami better, with the full intention of selling the team and never actually paying that contract, or trading him before the opt-out.

ESPN | AP: Kyler Murray has made his decision, and he is indeed choosing the NFL. This was always going to be a possibility for the Heisman Trophy winner, and even though this doesn’t end his chances of playing in baseball, because the thought is that he could circumvent rules around issuing major league contracts to draft picks. It very much seems like he’ll be in the NFL next year, though.