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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 1/12/19

Jimmy Nelson’s recovery; age and production comparisons; spreading out Harper/Machado money

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Jeff Sullivan: So much for the Brewers in 2019 is riding on Jimmy Nelson, who underwent an entire shoulder reconstruction. That doesn’t have a particularly good track record for recovery, but if he is at all close to his 2017, it could send them into first place.

Bill James Online | Bill James: “If a player is active and in the major leagues at ages 25 and 34, how likely is it that he is more valuable at age 25 than at age 34?” is the question James asks, and found that you could do that with a number of age combinations, which I recommend inspecting.

ESPN Insider | Bradford Doolittle ($): A team could sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, or you could spread your money out into a few different players (or none at all). It’s a weird free agency year, but we’re already seeing teams like the Cubs and Yankees putting their hands in their pockets instead of making the big splash.