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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 9/19/18

The Dodgers’ high WS odds; Willians Astudillo’s legend; Kyle Freeland as an old school starter

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MLB: New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Craig Edwards: The Dodgers always had high playoff odds, even when they were down, but why are the World Series odds so high? The odds make the assumption that they essentially have a 70% chance of winning the LDS and LCS, which seems like a stretch considering an LCS match-up could be against the Cubs on their home turf. In the Series, however, it reflects that they would be at a disadvantage against the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, or Astros.

Baseball Prospectus | Aaron Gleeman: Willians Astudillo is hitting .305/.328/.492 now, and his legend only grows. He doesn’t strike out often, and both his pitch framing and blocking are panning out to an extent one wouldn’t expect with his frame. Considering he was never a top prospect and was seen as purely a statistical oddity of contact skills, he may be the diamond in the rough of 2018.

The Athletic | Eno Sarris ($): Kyle Freeland may very well have a sub-3.00 ERA after pitching in Coors, and he did it by looking nothing like pitchers from his era. A low-velocity fastball, a variety of sinking pitches, and dotting the corners with command got him to where he is.