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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 8/29/18

Strength of schedule and playoff projections; fourth outfielder vs. bench bat in WAR; playoff contender rotations

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Craig Edwards: We know the projections, but what about if we factored in strength of schedule? The easiest schedule is the Indians’, and the hardest schedule is that of the Diamondbacks, who lose a win and basically the equivalent of Paul Goldschmidt’s run value over the rest of the season.

Baseball Prospectus | Russell A. Carleton ($): Here’s something that WAR misses: if you imagine one player 0 offensive runs/-20 defensive runs and another at -15 offensive runs/0 defensive runs, one would usually prefer the latter, by five runs. But WAR presupposes a long-term player, and not, say, someone off the bench and not a fourth outfielder, whereby the first player would be worth more value on a per plate appearance basis.

ESPN Insider | Jay Jaffe ($): Jaffe takes a look at the postseason contenders and previews how their rotations will look down the stretch; mentioning the Indians’ recent loss of Trevor Bauer, the fragile Dodgers squad, and the Braves’ ERA-FIP differential.