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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 7/17/18

Five forgotten trade chips; the Manny Machado receiver will get a good deal; handicapping the HR Derby with exit velo and launch angle

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Dan Szymborski: We all know who’s going to be traded at the deadline, for the most part—Manny Machado, JA Happ, and Cole Hamels, for example, are projected to move by the end of the month. Yet, there are some that should be, but won’t be, including Kevin Gausman, Jose Abreu, Whit Merrifield, and Raisel Iglesias, for example, who have decent enough trade value but there have been scarce rumors on teams moving them.

The Ringer | Michael Baumann: The trade for Machado is going to be a risk, for sure, but the odds are that it will work out in some sense for that team. If you look at the history, though, it usually works out pretty well, even when the prospects on the other end work out (looking at you, Gleyber Torres).

The Athletic | Eno Sarris ($): Even though the Home Run Derby will be written by the time this post goes up, it’s interesting to think about Vegas odds for the event handicapped by exit velocity and launch angle. Using those, the favorite would be Max Muncy followed by Jesus Aguilar, Bryce Harper, and Javier Baez. You’ll know reading this now if it was right!