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Beyond the Box Score’s Aggregate 2018 MLB Mock Draft

Scouring the Internet for expert draft projections

Cleveland Indians v Minnesota Twins - Game Two Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

I am not a scout. I have never held a radar gun in my life. Even though I’ve watched thousands of baseball games, I must confess I wouldn’t recognize the difference between a great prospect and a poor one. Instead, I interpret baseball best through statistics.

Most of the time this isn’t a problem, but the MLB draft is a bit of a blind spot. I’m not qualified to compare a polished college hitter like Nick Madrigal with a prep lefty like Matthew Liberatore. In fact, the only reason I even know that Madrigal is a polished hitter is because I read what other people write about him. With this in mind, I have two ways to create a mock draft:

  1. Copy the rankings of other people and parrot their scouting reports.
  2. Use math.

Beyond the Box Score is a pro-math website, so the decision is easy. What follows is our aggregate mock draft for 2018. To create it, we looked at mock drafts from 5 different sites that publish them: FanGraphs, MLB.com, CBS Sports, Perfect Game, and DraftSite. Then, we charted all of their first round mocks into a spreadsheet (which you can view) and found an average pick ranking, which becomes our aggregate mock draft.

Before we get into the mock draft itself, there are a few important notes.

  • You won’t find scouting reports or synopses of the prospects on this page. Feel free to click the links above for more information on each player.
  • There are also a few noteworthy sources absent from our aggregate spreadsheet, such as Baseball America, ESPN, and The Athletic. These sites are behind paywalls and it’s ethically questionable to use their entire mock drafts.
  • There were 55 players in total that appeared in the 5 first round mocks we used. Any player not listed in a given mock draft was ranked #55 on the spreadsheet. The exception was on DraftSite, which mocked 5 rounds (164 picks), so we just used each player’s actual ranking. FanGraphs and Perfect Game went through 43 picks, MLB mocked 35, and CBS listed 30.

And now, on to the BtBS 2018 Aggregate Mock Draft!

  1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP Auburn, Average Pick: 1.0, Range 1-1, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  2. San Francisco Giants: Joey Bart, C Georgia Tech, Average Pick: 2.6, Range 2-5, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  3. Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm, 3B Wichita State, Average Pick: 3.6, Range 3-6, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  4. Chicago White Sox: Nick Madrigal, 2B Oregon State, Average Pick: 4.0, Range 3-5, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  5. Cincinnati Reds: Brady Singer, RHP Florida, Average Pick: 4.6, Range 4-5, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  6. New York Mets: Matthew Liberatore, LHP HS-AZ, Average Pick: 7.2, Range 2-12, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  7. San Diego Padres: Travis Swaggerty, OF South Alabama, Average Pick: 9.4, Range 6-13, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  8. Atlanta Braves: Carter Stewart, RHP HS-FL, Average Pick: 9.6, Range 7-15, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  9. Oakland Athletics: Jonathan India, 3B Florida, Average Pick: 9.8, Range 6-20, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nolan Gorman, 3B HS-AZ, Average Pick: 11.4, Range 8-18, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  11. Baltimore Orioles: Jarred Kelenic, OF HS-WI, Average Pick: 12.8, Range 11-15, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  12. Toronto Blue Jays: Shane McClanahan, LHP South Florida, Average Pick: 14.0, Range 7-22, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  13. Miami Marlins: Ryan Weathers, LHP HS-TN, Average Pick: 14.4, Range 7-20, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  14. Seattle Mariners: Cole Winn, RHP HS-CA, Average Pick: 16.4, Range 10-23, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  15. Texas Rangers: Ryan Rolison, LHP Mississippi, Average Pick: 16.4, Range 12-26, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  16. Tampa Bay Rays: Jordyn Adams, OF HS-NC, Average Pick: 16.5, Range 15-18, 4/5 1st round mock drafts*
  17. Los Angeles Angels: Logan Gilbert, RHP Stetson, Average Pick: 18.2, Range 12-24, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  18. Kansas City Royals: Connor Scott, OF HS-FL, Average Pick: 18.6, Range 16-22, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  19. St. Louis Cardinals: Brice Turang, SS HS-CA, Average Pick: 19.4, Range 9-25, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  20. Minnesota Twins: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP HS-TX, Average Pick: 19.6, Range 10-34, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  21. Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Larnach, OF Oregon State, Average Pick: 19.8, Range 14-33, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  22. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Kowar, RHP Florida, Average Pick: 21.0, Range 15-27, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  23. New York Yankees: Mason Denaburg, C HS-FL, Average Pick: 24.4, Range 18-27, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  24. Chicago Cubs: Ethan Hankins, RHP HS-GA, Average Pick: 25.6, Range 15-42, 5/5 1st round mock drafts
  25. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kumar Rocker, RHP HS-GA, Average Pick: 29.8, Range 12-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  26. Boston Red Sox: Triston Casas, 1B HS-FL, Average Pick: 31.4, Range 13-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  27. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP HS-GA, Average Pick: 32.6, Range 16-55, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  28. Houston Astros: Steele Walker, OF Oklahoma, Average Pick: 34.2, Range 25-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  29. Cleveland Indians: Jordan Groshans, 3B HS-TX, Average Pick: 35.0, Range 18-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  30. Los Angeles Dodgers: Alek Thomas, OF HS-IL, Average Pick: 35.2, Range 28-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  31. Tampa Bay Rays: Anthony Siegler, C HS-GA, Average Pick: 35.8, Range 22-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  32. Tampa Bay Rays: Jeremy Eierman, SS Missouri State, Average Pick: 37.2, Range 25-NR, 3/5 1st round mock drafts
  33. Kansas City Royals: Greyson Jenista, 1B Wichita State, Average Pick: 38.0, Range 22-NR, 3/5 1st round mock drafts
  34. Kansas City Royals: Noah Naylor, C HS-Ontario, Average Pick: 38.6, Range 29-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  35. Cleveland Indians: Xavier Edwards, SS HS-FL, Average Pick: 39.2, Range 23-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  36. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Schnell, OF HS-IL, Average Pick: 40.4, Range 28-NR, 4/5 1st round mock drafts
  37. Baltimore Orioles: Sean Hjelle, RHP Kentucky, Average Pick: 44.6, Range 28-NR, 2/5 1st round mock drafts
  38. San Diego Padres: Seth Beer, 1B Clemson, Average Pick: 45.2, Range 30-NR, 2/5 1st round mock drafts
  39. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jeremiah Jackson, SS HS-AL, Average Pick: 45.8, Range 33-NR, 2/5 1st round mock drafts
  40. Kansas City Royals: Adam Kloffenstein, RHP HS-TX, Average Pick: 46.8, Range 34-NR, 2/5 1st round mock drafts
  41. Cleveland Indians: Mike Siani, OF HS-PA, Average Pick: 48.2, Range 28-NR, 1/5 1st round mock drafts
  42. Colorado Rockies: Tristan Pompey, OF HS-KY, Average Pick: 48.2, Range 21-NR, 1/5 1st round mock drafts
  43. St. Louis Cardinals: Will Banfield, C HS-GA, Average Pick: 48.6, Range 39-NR, 2/5 1st round mock drafts

There you have it. A 43-pick aggregate mock draft. Here are a few takeaways:

  • There is not a reputable mock draft in existence that doesn’t have Casey Mize on top. It would be a total shocker if the Tigers don’t select him first overall.
  • There are 26 high school players and 17 from college. Additionally, there are 27 position players and 16 pitchers.
  • For some reason, Jordyn Adams was not listed at all on DraftSite’s 5 round mock draft. This appears to be an oversight given that the other four mocks all had him pretty close in the 15-18 range. As such, he was not given an “NR” for this.
  • Cole Winn and Ryan Rolison are tied with 16.4 average pick placement. Winn had the better draft range, so he goes #14 while Rolison goes #15.
  • At the bottom of the mock, Mike Siani and Tristan Pompey are also tied at 48.2. Both players only appear on one first round mock. Siani goes in front here, because he was mocked #48 on DraftSite, which is early in the second round, whereas Pompey’s lone first round ranking was on DraftSite, and he’s “NR” on the other four.
  • Prep RHP Mike Vasil was mocked on all 5 sites, but withdrew from the draft yesterday. He would’ve been mocked 29th on our board.
  • Going strictly by average placement presents a few obvious flaws. It doesn’t take into account team tendencies, such as if a franchise usually prefers college arms. It also slots catcher Mason Denaburg to the Yankees, who employ Gary Sanchez. Oh well.

In this mock, we have Grayson & Greyson, Tristan & Triston, Jordyn & Jordan, and Alec & Alek. Weather(s) you’re on vacation in India or relaxing in your Casa(s), crack open a Beer and sit back in your Rocker. It should be a Hjelle of a draft!

Daniel R. Epstein is an elementary special education teacher and president of the Somerset County Education Association. In addition to BtBS, he writes at www.OffTheBenchBaseball.com. Tweets @depstein1983