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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 12/4/18

The divergent paths of the Mets and Mariners; the introduction of DRC+; the actually-above-water Cano contract

New York Mets v Seattle Mariners Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

FanGraphs | Jeff Sullivan: The Mets are deciding they are win-now, and the Mariners are in total rebuild, with a lot of interesting perspectives on both sides of the deals. For the Mets, it’s imperative that they actually win now, get a couple of productive seasons out of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz comes close to replicating his 2018 (but probably doesn’t). For the Mariners, they get probably more value than you’d think considering the salary relief implications.

Baseball Prospectus | Jonathan Judge: A new offensive statistic is here courtesy of BP, and it’s called DRC+. It shows higher predictive power than wRC+, True Average, OPS, etc. because it looks at expected contributions instead of taking events at face value. Because it eliminates a lot of the variance brought in by your team, park, opposing pitchers, etc., it changes the public field in a way that “FIP-ifies” (my own words) offensive production in a way we haven’t seen in the past. That’s not meant as a FIP-based criticism, but it shows how stuck offensive stats were in actual and not predicted outcomes, and now we have both DRC+ and xwOBA in a year.

The Ringer | Ben Lindbergh: Contracts usually do not age gracefully for players over 30, but Robinson Cano’s actually has, as the Mariners shipped him off with more value produced than spent. That’s a rare feat, and there is still some time to go. The Mets may be getting the worst piece of it, but they are still getting a player that has somehow avoided the usual post-30 dips.