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Morning Mound Visit: sabermetrics news - 10/23/18

The Red Sox and Dodgers’ shared history; PECOTA vs. Vegas; Boston’s one weakness

MLB: World Series-Workouts David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

FanGraphs | Jay Jaffe: This is the first time the Red Sox and Dodgers will face in the World Series since 1916, when they were technically named the Brooklyn Robins. The Red Sox were the dynasty at that time, featuring Harry Hooper and Babe Ruth, and the Dodgers had Hall of Famers Zack Wheat and Casey Stengel. They definitely are still tied despite the gulf: the connections to integration/segregation; their shared rivalry with the Yankees; and as recent as the 2012 blockbuster.

Baseball Prospectus | Aaron Gleeman: How did PECOTA team projections do against the Vegas odds? PECOTA went 17-13 on the over/under’s, and correctly predicted that the Rays would be better than predicted, but the biggest issue with median projections is that they missed the surprises like the Athletics and Brewers.

The Athletic | Eno Sarris ($): The Red Sox have one weakness, and it’s hitting against left-handed pitchers. There’s a way to get around that, though; the Dodgers aren’t great against lefties either, and if they start Eduardo Rodriguez in Game Two instead of David Price (similar win probabilities), then they can use Price in the bullpen and take advantage of the available platoon splits.