Masters of the swinging strike (blocked)

Two weeks ago, with the new season still in its infancy, the Angels scored seven runs in the ninth inning to come back from down six and beat the Mariners. Entering that inning the Angels had a win expectancy of just 0.2 percent, but somehow they rallied to victory.

Chart via FanGraphs

While watching the Mariners collapse play out in front of me at Angel Stadium, one aspect really peaked my interest; Edwin Diaz kept throwing the ball in the dirt. Diaz is without a doubt one of the brightest young closers the game has to offer, but on this day not only could he not find the zone, he could barely find the plate. He threw seven balls in the dirt to the first five Angels hitters he faced. SEVEN!

The first one was swung at by Danny Espinosa, who’s not exactly known for his stellar plate discipline. The next six were all looked at by Angels who presumably had caught on to his wildness. As I sat there watching this implosion it made me curious: which pitchers are able to bury their offerings in the dirt effectively? Who’s the best at making hitters chase unhittable pitches?

Gif via MLB.com

To be honest, answering this question takes a simple Baseball Savant query, not an exhaustive study. Find the total number of pitches classified in MLB.com’s Gameday as either “Ball In Dirt” or “Swinging Strike (Blocked)” then divide the whiffs — swinging strike (blocked) — from that total number of balls in the dirt. We’ll call it the “Whiffs to Balls in Dirt Rate,” listed as WH/BD % on the following leaderboards.

First a look at the overall leaders in 2016, then a look with some more specificity.

Carlos Carrasco is the whiffs-to-balls-in-dirt rate king, as batters have offered at 59 percent of the 39 pitches he bounced. It’s an interesting top 10 in that only two starters sit alongside eight relievers. In fact, if we extend the list to the top 30 pitchers, only 10 on them are starters.

One theory might be that certain relievers have complete mastery of a single breaking pitch and therefore extreme ability to manipulate it. Look at relievers in the top 10 again: Dellin Betances has the slurve; Ken Giles, Bryan Shaw, and Nate Jones have the slider; Cody Allen has the curve; and Craig Kimbrel has the knuckle-curve. All of those pitchers use that one, dynamic breaking pitch as the only thing playing off their respective fastballs. Derek Law doesn’t really fit perfectly as he’s a mostly three, sometimes four pitch pitcher who isn’t necessarily in the class of those others yet, but he’s still pretty good!

In a general sense what’s noticeable about this leaderboard is how the top is filled with some of baseball’s best pitchers and the bottom is filled with some of the game’s worst. There are exceptions of course (this is observational, not scientific) but sort the table from the from the bottom and you’ll find a group in stark contrast to the top. Here’s a scatter plot visualization for whiffs compared to total balls in the dirt with some outliers highlighted.

Chart via Baseball Savant

Look, the sample here is small and it covers just one season, but it stands to reason that the best pitchers in baseball have better control than most and a higher percentage of their balls in the dirt will be on purpose. This in turn generates more swings as the situation presumably is one in which the hitter is more likely to chase. Context of an at-bat is important, so here are the situational whiff-to-balls-in-dirt rate leaderboards. For these the minimums have been dropped because they are smaller pieces of the previous overall list.

There are some of the same names in this top 10 as the overall leaderboard, with master of the splitter Junior Guerra joining the list. Percentages are mostly higher from the overall list as presumably hitters are expanding the locations in which they will swing to protect against a called strike that either puts them in a deeper hole or sends them back to the dugout.

The opposite applies here as hitters are bound to be more selective and less likely to offer at a ball in the dirt when they are already in control of the count. The sample sizes at work here are tiny, so is Brad Brach a true talent 40 percent whiff to ball in dirt rate pitcher when behind in the count? Probably not; we can’t tell based on 10 pitches without even looking at which hitters he’s facing.

It is noteworthy that 22 pitchers did not generate even one swing on a ball in the dirt when they were behind in the count. Aaron Sanchez threw 21 balls in the dirt when he was behind without generating a single swing. More notable still is how few pitchers are on this list compared to the overall leaderboard. Throwing balls in the dirt without an advantage in the count is not often going to be a successful strategy, and many pitchers do so only rarely.

Ahead 0-2 is a typical time to try and bounce a pitch to induce a swing; a fact reflected in the high percentages of success. To be honest I expected to see more pitchers and more attempts on this list, but again context is important and surely trying to bounce a pitch is only a sound strategy in certain specific situations. The hitters plate discipline profile and tendency to chase matters, as do the outs and base runners at the moment.

Most notable from the 0-2 leaderboard is that Michael Wacha was unable to generate even one swinging strike on his 10 pitches in the dirt in this spot. In 2016 Wacha did have a better FIP and wOBA allowed through an 0-2 count than league average which might speak to the overall unimportance and unpredictability of this particular skill.

Finally, here are the individual pitch type leaders in whiffs to balls in dirt rate.

Yep, that checks out. Those are all quality pitchers whose respective listed pitches are an important part of their arsenals. For what it’s worth — if Joaquin Benoit doesn’t get you excited — Stephen Strasburg and David Price are second and third on the changeup leaderboard.

As Michael Wacha will attest, the ability to bury a pitch in the dirt and induce a swinging strike is not a necessary skill; some pitchers have it, some don’t. There are plenty of other ways to be successful. It can be a useful weapon though, and some of the best pitchers in baseball are able to utilize the “swinging strike (blocked)” to great effect.

Just ask Drew Butera.

Gif via MLB.com