How bad would the Cubs be if every player hit their 10th percentile projections?

When I say that the Cubs are the consensus best team in baseball, I’m not telling you something you don’t already know. Yes, Baseball Prospectus might have the Dodgers winning a few more games, but if you polled the average baseball fan, the Cubs would be the most common answer to who will win the 2017 World Series.

I could go on and on about how impressive a feat that is, and wax poetic about the culture the organization has cultivated; about the incredible talent Theo Epstein has amassed; about how they finally broke the curse. But you’ve heard that a thousand times before — if there is one thing the Cubs don’t lack, it’s praise.

Like you, I expect the Cubs to be excellent in 2017. They would be my pick to win the whole thing, and I’m genuinely in awe at the dynastic possibilities they seem capable of fresh off of their first title in 108 years. As exciting as that is, it’s something that’s been covered over and over.

But what if Chicago came out and just totally sucked this year? What if every player on their roster responded to expectations like Jason Heyward did in his first season on the North Side? That’s a much more interesting, if less likely, scenario.

So after writing about what it would be like if the Padres played to their absolute maximum potential a couple of weeks ago, I’d like to explore the other side of the coin today. The premise is simple: I want to see what the Cubs would look like if every player currently in line for big league playing time sunk to their 10th percentile PECOTA projections. Just as the Padres — spoiler alert — became the best team in baseball under these batshit parameters, would the Cubs be the worst? There’s only one way to find out.

First, let’s set a baseline. Here are the Cubs’ current team projections from both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs:

That’s, again, telling you what you already know: the Cubs are really damn good. And, of course, we should reiterate that projections are usually conservative — if the Cubs really are the best team in baseball, it would not be a surprise to see them win several more games than this.

Regardless, that’s not what this exercise is about so let’s begin exploring our alternative universe. Just as we did for the Padres, we’ll take a look at the starters and bench/bullpen guys from both the position players and pitchers, in order, and then tally everything up at the end. Here are the 10th percentile projections for the Cubs’ current starting lineup:

This is another signal of just how strong the Cubs lineup is. Even the absolute floor for these guys is still pretty high. You could probably have a real debate about whether you’d rather have this version of the Cubs or the Padres actual lineup.

Of course, that is not to say that this version of the Cubs’ hitters is good. This team would definitely struggle to score runs, even if Kris Bryant is still a borderline All-Star. The bottom of the lineup, with Russell, Heyward, and Jay, would be absolutely dreadful. But that’s the game we’re playing, obviously.

Moving along, let’s take a look at the Cubs’ bench and AAA call-ups:

This would still be a fairly effective group if they were to be used as defensive replacements, but good God, what a disaster they would be if ever asked to take a plate appearance. This version of Javier Baez would probably send half of the baseball internet into a crippling depression.

Next, let’s take a look at the Cubs’ starting rotation and projected spot starters. Shield your eyes, Chicagoans:

For the portion of the baseball-watching fanbase that’s already sick of the Cubs — and that’s a faction of the population that’s growing with each passing day — this would be some quality schadenfreude.

This would also be, obviously, a complete unmitigated disaster. Jake Arrieta is far and away the Cubs’ best starter in this scenario, and he’d still be getting pummeled every five days. In an effort to find any sort of quality pitching after the starting five imploded, the Cubs would be giving starts to Pierce Johnson and Eddie Butler, who would perform like even worse versions of Pierce Johnson and Eddie Butler. It would be like a traveling circus version of turn-of-the-century Coors Field.

Now, let’s wrap up the individual projections by taking a look at the bullpen, which is probably the weakest part of the club here in real life:

There’s so much blood. I really cannot stop staring at that Brian Duensing line. Unsurprisingly, the bullpen — as the most vulnerable part of the team already — is hit the hardest under this 10th percentile projections scenario.

Alright, so now for the fun part: comparing these Cubs to the rest of baseball’s actual projections. First, because these 10th percentile projections take big chunks out of playing time, we need to normalize both the plate appearances and innings pitched to league-average levels. Here are those figures for both position players and pitchers:

Yeah, this team is not good. But just how bad is it? Let’s find out by plugging those runs scored and runs allowed numbers back into the current PECOTA projections:

Hey, what do you know? This team totally sucks. For comparison’s sake, the 2013 Houston Astros, winners of just 51 games, had a run differential of -238. So as bad as this version of the Cubs might be — and they’d be the worst team in the league, no doubt — they’re still not historically bad. In order for your team’s worst case scenario to avoid that distinction, you have to be pretty good, which the Cubs certainly are.

Just as the Padres will almost certainly — hell, let’s get crazy and just say certainly — not be the best team in baseball this year, the Cubs will not be the worst. But there is a plausible, if not probable, scenario in which every player on the roster collapses, and presto, the Cubs fall to the back of the pack. Just don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen.