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MLB Draft 2016: A look at over 100 of the top draft eligible prospects

The Phillies may have the number one pick, but there is more talent down the draft board.

By carltriano

As we move closer to the 2016 draft, I wanted to expand my analyses to include the top 100 prospects on MLB.com. The choice the Phillies have with the number one overall pick will not be an easy one. Jason Groome, A.J. Puk, and Kyle Lewis continue to state their cases to be the first overall selection. As with prior research, some HS prospects' stats remain unavailable due to the school not publishing players' stats just yet. The past rankings can be found here and here.

For any readers unfamiliar with how I value prospects, here is the background. The position players are valued based on their wOBA, K%, BB%, and respective Z-Scores. The pitchers are valued based on their ERA, K%, BB%, and respective Z-Scores. In the table below, next to each player is their respective scouting grade (based on a 20-80 scale). The grades are pulled from the MLB top 100 draft prospects on MLB.com. All stats are as of May 13th.

First, let's take a look at the position players:

Players Scout Grade wOBA Z-Score BABIP Z-Score K% Z-Score BB% Z-Score
Corey Ray, OF- Louisville 55 0.415 -0.29 0.324 -0.61 13.2 0.13 10.7 -0.62
Buddy Reed, OF - Florida 55 0.354 -0.82 0.345 -0.35 20.4 1.47 12.7 -0.30
Blake Rutherford, OF - Chaminade College Prep 55 0.660 1.81 0.587 2.61 8.0 -0.83 16.0 0.22
Kyle Lewis, OF - Mercer 55 0.546 0.83 0.459 1.04 15.5 0.56 21.9 1.16
Delvin Perez, SS - Puerto Rico 55
Drew Mendoza, 3B - Lake Mineola HS 55 0.596 1.26 0.472 1.20 16.5 0.75 24.3 1.55
Mickey Moniak, OF - La Costa Canyon HS 55 0.634 1.59 0.450 0.93 5.7 -1.26 10.4 -0.67
Nick Senzel, 3B - Tennessee 55 0.439 -0.09 0.335 -0.48 7.7 -0.89 14.4 -0.03
Josh Lowe, 3B - Pope HS 55
Zack Collins, C - Miami 55 0.525 0.65 0.448 0.91 16.1 0.67 28 2.14
Alex Kirilloff, OF Plum HS 55
Bryan Reynolds, OF - Vanderbilt 50 0.457 0.07 0.392 0.22 20.4 1.47 18.1 0.56
William Benson, OF - The Westminster Schools 50
Nolan Jones, 3B - Holy Ghost Prep 50 0.707 2.22 0.606 2.84 4.9 -1.41 32.8 2.90
Ryan Boldt, OF - Nebraska 50 0.357 -0.79 0.335 -0.48 13.5 0.19 6.3 -1.32
Chris Okey, C - Clemson 50 0.437 -0.10 0.387 0.16 18.1 1.04 15.4 0.13
Avery Tuck, OF - Steele Canyon HS 50
Carter Kieboom, 3B - Walton HS 50
Gio Brusa, OF - Pacific 50 0.428 -0.18 0.362 -0.14 18.0 1.03 12.5 -0.33
Joe Rizzo, 3B - Oakton High 50
Will Craig, 3B - Wake Forest 50 0.559 0.94 0.424 0.61 12.9 0.08 19.1 0.72
Sean Murphy, C - Wright State 50 0.380 -0.59 0.260 -1.39 11.8 -0.13 13.6 -0.16
Anfernee Grier, OF, Auburn 50 0.456 0.06 0.468 1.15 20.3 1.45 10.2 -0.70
Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia 50 0.447 -0.02 0.353 -0.26 3.6 -1.65 14.4 -0.03
Nick Kahle, C, Chaminade College Prep 50 0.599 1.29 0.508 1.64 12.2 -0.05 18.4 0.61
Colby Woodmansee, SS, Arizona 50 0.385 -0.55 0.322 -0.63 13.3 0.15 11.8 -0.44
Taylor Trammell, OF - Mt. Paran Christian 50 0.657 1.79 0.442 0.84 8.2 -0.80 20.5 0.94
Gavin Lux, SS - Indian Trail Academy 50
Ben Rortvedt, C - Verona Area HS 50
Thomas Jones, OF - Laurens HS 50
Heath Quinn, OF - Samford 50 0.464 0.13 0.356 -0.22 19.5 1.30 15.3 0.11
Lucas Erceg, 3B - California 50 0.369 -0.69 0.303 -0.87 11.0 -0.27 6.3 -1.32
Sheldon Neuse, SS - Oklahoma 50 0.482 0.28 0.425 0.63 18.0 1.03 15.5 0.15
Nonie Williams, SS - Turner HS 50
Hunter Bishop, OF - Juniperro Sierra HS 50 0.523 0.64 0.493 0.20 13.2 0.13 17.5 0.46
Akil Baddoo, OF - Salem HS 50
Bryson Brigman, SS - San Diego 50 0.369 -0.69 0.397 0.28 9.2 -0.61 7.6 -1.11
Cole Stobbe, 3B - Milliard West HS 50 0.607 1.36 0.373 -0.01 9.6 -0.53 16.7 0.34
Brandon Marsh, OF - Buford HS 50
Bobby Dalbec, 3B - Arizona 45 0.338 -0.95 0.333 -0.50 30.4 3.33 15.5 0.15
Nick Banks, OF - Texas A&M 45 0.359 -0.77 0.315 -0.72 18.7 1.16 9.6 -0.80
Jake Fraley, OF - LSU 45 0.384 -0.56 0.362 -0.14 10.3 -0.40 12.4 -0.35
Cooper Johnson, C - Carmel Catholic HS 45
Brett Cumberland, C - California 45 0.471 0.19 0.370 -0.05 19.0 1.21 15.8 0.19
Conner Capel, OF - Seven Lakes HS 45
David Martinelli, OF - Dallas Baptist 45 0.455 0.05 0.387 0.16 11.6 -0.16 11.6 -0.48
Peter Alonso, 1B - Florida 45 0.444 -0.04 0.372 -0.02 12.9 0.08 12.4 -0.35
Jameson Fisher, 1B - SE Lousiana 45 0.540 0.78 0.457 1.02 11.5 -0.18 20.2 0.89
C.J. Chatham, SS - Florida Atlantic 45 0.433 -0.14 0.400 0.32 12.2 -0.05 8.3 -1.00
Jake Rogers, C - Tulane 45 0.300 -1.28 0.283 -1.11 14.8 0.43 13.8 -0.13
Bo Bichette, OF - Lakewood HS 45 0.814 3.14 0.533 1.95 8.3 -0.78 31.3 2.66
Hudson Sanchez, 3B - Carroll HS 45
Walker Robbins, 1B - George County 45 0.571 1.05 0.515 1.73 8.7 -0.70 22.3 1.23
Luis Curbelo, SS - Cocoa HS 45
Carlos Cortes, 2B - Lake Howell HS 45

Since our last look at the top hitting prospects, the top performers (in bold above) are: Blake Rutherford, Mickey Moniak, Nolan Jones, Bo Bichette, Drew Mendoza, and Will Craig.

Rutherford continues to stay near the top in terms of wOBA, BABIP, and K percentage, thus keeping his name in the conversation to go 1-1 next month. If there is an area of improvement for Rutherford it is his BB percentage, and while he may not have improved, he stayed equal to his prior percentage with a 16 percent walk percentage this analysis.

Mickey Moniak joins Rutherford as one of the two top high school bats in this year’s draft. Moniak will be a top-10 pick and may sneak into the top five as well. Right now, head to head, I give the edge to Blake Rutherford.

Nolan Jones, whose stats were previously unavailable, is first or second in all the above categories and shaping up to be potentially a mid-to-late first round draft pick. While his stats may be inflated playing at the high school level, he is certainly standing out as we move closer to the draft. In the event he opts to attend college, Jones has committed to Virginia.

Another player whose stats are now available is Drew Mendoza. Mendoza has excelled this spring and looks like a first round pick this June. Jones and Mendoza are rare commodities in that they are left-handed hitting third basemen, and this will only help them as teams decide on whom to take in June. Right now I would give an edge to Nolan Jones.

There is no player in this draft with a stronger baseball bloodline than Bo Bichette. He is the son of Colorado Rockies great Dante Bichette and the brother of Dante Bichette Jr., a first round draft pick of the Yankees in 2011. He is committed to Arizona State, but he looks like a potential second round draft pick this June.

Will Craig continues to prove it was a mistake for him not to be considered a top-50 prospect in the preseason. MLB has him ranked 27th in their most recent prospect rankings. He leads the top collegiate bat Kyle Lewis in wOBA.

Nick Banks has seen his stock fall from the beginning of the 2016 season. In the preseason, MLB had his scouting grade at 50 and most recently dropped it to 45 overall. He is in the bottom five in the above table in wOBA and BABIP but is in the top five in BB percentage. Banks, once thought to be a mid-to-late first round pick, now may be looking at being selected in the second round due to his struggles.

Top 10 Position Players Right Now

1.     Kyle Lewis, OF - Mercer

2.     Blake Rutherford, OF - Chaminade College Prep

3.     Mickey Moniak, OF - La Costa Canyon HS

4.     Delvin Perez, SS - Puerto Rico

5.     Nick Senzel, 3B - Tennessee

6.     Corey Ray, OF- Louisville

7.     Buddy Reed, OF - Florida

8.     Zack Collins, C - Miami

9.     Alex Kirilloff, OF Plum HS

10.  Will Craig, 3B - Wake Forest

Now for the pitching prospects:

Players Scout Grade IP ERA Z-Score K% Z-Score BB% Z-Score
Jason Groome, LHP - Barnegat HS 60
Riley Pint, RHP - ST.TA HS 60
A.J. Puk, LHP - Florida 55 50.1 3.04 0.16 40.3 0.64 14.2 0.63
Connor Jones, RHP - Virginia 55 78.1 1.95 -0.49 21.0 -1.58 10.3 -0.17
Jordan Sheffield, RHP - Vanderbilt 55 77.2 2.09 -0.41 35.5 0.09 10.3 -0.17
Ian Anderson, RHP - Shenendehowa HS 55
Dakota Hudson, RHP - Mississippi State 55 80.1 2.80 0.02 31.8 -0.34 9.7 -0.30
Braxton Garrett, LHP - Florence HS 55 62.1 0.56 -1.32 51.7 1.95 9.1 -0.42
Joey Wentz, LHP - Shawnee Mission East 55
Forrest Whitley, RHP - Alamo Heights 55
Alec Hansen, RHP - Oklahoma 50 37.1 5.06 1.36 39 0.49 20.6 1.95
Josh Lowe, RHP - Pope HS 50
Cal Quantrill, RHP - Stanford 50
Matt Krook, LHP - Oregon 50 46.2 5.79 1.80 26.6 -0.94 25.5 2.95
Kevin Gowdy, RHP - Santa Barbara HS 50 56.2 1.24 -0.91 42.1 0.85 2.3 -1.82
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP - Louisville 50 69.1 4.54 1.05 28.2 -0.75 16.1 1.02
Daulton Jefferies, RHP - California 50 42.0 1.29 -0.88 28.4 -0.73 3.6 -1.55
Zack Brown, RHP - Kentucky 50 71.1 5.93 1.88 22.2 -1.44 11.9 0.16
Robert Tyler, RHP - Georgia 50 63.1 3.98 0.72 34.2 -0.06 16.7 1.14
Logan Shore, RHP - Florida 50 73.2 2.32 -0.27 30.0 -0.54 5.2 -1.22
Ian Hamilton, RHP - Washington State 50 69.0 5.22 1.46 22.8 -1.37 9.2 -0.40
Austin Bergner, RHP - Windermere Prep 50 5.0 5.60 1.69 14.8 -2.29 3.7 -1.53
Mike Shawaryn, RHP - Maryland 50 76.0 3.32 0.33 28.5 -0.72 8.4 -0.56
Alex Speas, RHP - McEachern HS 50
Zach Jackson, RHP - Arkansas 50 48.0 4.88 1.26 33.0 -0.20 19.6 1.74
Eric Lauer, LHP - Kent State 50 80.1 0.90 -1.12 36.1 0.16 9.4 -0.36
Cody Sedlock, RHP - Illinois 50 83.0 2.82 0.03 35.4 0.08 9.1 -0.42
Zack Burdi, RHP - Louisville 50 21.2 2.49 -0.17 50.0 1.76 9.7 -0.30
Bailey Clark, RHP - Duke 50 54.1 6.13 2.00 31.9 -0.33 13.3 0.44
Jon Duplantier, RHP - Rice 50 86.0 2.20 -0.34 37.2 0.28 10.1 -0.21
Matt Manning, RHP - Sheldon High 50 35.1 1.58 -0.71 49.0 1.64 10.5 -0.13
Cole Irvin, LHP- Oregon 50 83.2 3.66 0.53 29.2 -0.64 4.9 -1.28
Jared Horn, RHP - Vintage HS 50 68.0 0.41 -1.41 47.2 1.43 6.1 -1.04
Kyle Muller, LHP - Jesuit College Prep 50 53.0 0.26 -1.50 54.9 2.32 3.3 -1.61
Corbin Burnes, RHP - St. Mary's 50 80.1 1.57 -0.72 32.0 -0.31 10.4 -0.15
T.J. Zeuch, RHP - Pittsburgh 50 55.0 3.11 0.20 31.3 -0.39 7.8 -0.69
Anthony Kay, LHP - UCONN 50 83.3 2.48 -0.17 30.4 -0.50 9.4 -0.36
Justin Dunn, RHP - Boston College 50 41.1 1.31 -0.87 28.8 -0.68 10.8 -0.07
Chad Hockin, RHP - Cal State Fullerton 50 22.0 1.23 -0.92 28.8 -0.68 9.6 -0.32
Dane Dunning, RHP - Florida 50 51.0 2.65 -0.07 38.9 0.48 5.6 -1.14
Skylar Szynski, RHP - Penn HS 50
Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP - Seaman HS 50
Reggie Lawson, RHP - Victor Valley HS 45 35 1.20 -0.94 36.4 0.19 11 -0.03
Jesus Luzardo, LHP - Stoneman Douglas HS 45
Ben Bowden, LHP - Vanderbilt 45 43.2 3.71 0.56 39.9 0.59 8.4 -0.56
Zach Liningfelter, RHP - Sevier County 45
Cole Ragans, LHP - N. Fla. Christian 45
Ryan Rolison, LHP - Univ. HS of Jackson 45
Nick Lodolo, LHP - Damien HS 45
Braeden Ogle, LHP - Jensen Beach HS 45 35.0 1.40 -0.82 40.1 0.62 10.9 -0.05
Zac Gallen, RHP - North Carolina 45 76.1 2.59 -0.11 33.2 -0.18 7.3 -0.79
Lake Bachar, RHP - Wis.-Whitewater 45
Adam Laskey, LHP - Haddon Heights HS 45
Matthias Dietz, RHP - John Logan CC 45
Braden Webb, RHP - South Carolina 45 72.0 3.38 0.36 36.6 0.22 15.0 0.79
Nolan Martinez, RHP - Culver City HS 45 43.2 0.64 -1.27 42.4 0.88 9.6 -0.32

The top pitching performers (in bold above) are: Braxton Garrett, Alec Hansen, Logan Shore, and Dane Dunning.

Garrett is in the top three in ERA and K percentage and continues to look like he will be selected in the first round. He has struck out more than half of the batters he has faced. His curveball is his best pitch, and if he decides to go to college Vanderbilt will have the enviable job of developing the strong left-hander.

Alec Hansen is not a name many would think as a top performer this season, but since I began valuing draft-eligible players, he has had made some improvements. Since my last analysis, Hansen threw an addition 11.1 innings and has lowered his ERA from 6.58 to 5.06, raised his K percentage from 35.5% to 39%, and lowered his BB percentage from 25.2% to 20.6%. He was once thought as a number one overall selection, but his struggles in 2016 have him ticketed as a possible second round pick. The talent for Hansen is still there; it is only a question of his control. Also, I would be remiss not to mention another standout collegiate arm in Eric Lauer, who threw a no-hitter this past weekend against Bowling Green.

A.J. Puk continues to be in the conversation to go first overall, but he has two teammates on the Florida Gators who have performed well this season, Logan Shore and Dane Dunning. Among collegiate arms, Shore and Manning are both in the top five in BB percentage. Shore is in the top 10 in ERA, and Manning is in the top 10 in K percentage. Shore is potentially a late first round selection as he leads Florida with Puk into the CWS at the top of the rotation. Dunning has done his damage to Florida’s opposition mostly out of the bullpen. He has five starts in 24 appearances, but according to MLB.com, scouts profile him as a late first to early second round selection and to start at the next level.

Kyle Funkhouser joins the company of Nick Banks as projected first round picks in the preseason who are falling out of the first round. Funkhouser was selected 35th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers last season but did not sign, hoping to improve his draft stock in 2016. He is below average compared to his counterparts in the above table in all three categories. His stock has fallen enough not to be included in MLB.com’s top 100 draft prospects.

Top 10 Pitching Prospects Right Now

1.     Jason Groome, LHP - Barnegat HS

2.     A.J. Puk, LHP - Florida

3.     Riley Pint, RHP - ST.TA HS

4.     Connor Jones, RHP - Virginia

5.     Braxton Garrett, LHP - Florence HS

6.     Dakota Hudson, RHP - Mississippi State

7.     Forrest Whitley, RHP - Alamo Heights

8.     Jordan Sheffield, RHP - Vanderbilt

9.     Logan Shore, RHP - Florida

10.  Ian Anderson, RHP - Shenendehowa HS

. . .

Carl Triano is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score.

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