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As we move closer to the 2016 draft, I wanted to expand my analyses to include the top 100 prospects on MLB.com. The choice the Phillies have with the number one overall pick will not be an easy one. Jason Groome, A.J. Puk, and Kyle Lewis continue to state their cases to be the first overall selection. As with prior research, some HS prospects' stats remain unavailable due to the school not publishing players' stats just yet. The past rankings can be found here and here.
For any readers unfamiliar with how I value prospects, here is the background. The position players are valued based on their wOBA, K%, BB%, and respective Z-Scores. The pitchers are valued based on their ERA, K%, BB%, and respective Z-Scores. In the table below, next to each player is their respective scouting grade (based on a 20-80 scale). The grades are pulled from the MLB top 100 draft prospects on MLB.com. All stats are as of May 13th.
First, let's take a look at the position players:
Players | Scout Grade | wOBA | Z-Score | BABIP | Z-Score | K% | Z-Score | BB% | Z-Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Ray, OF- Louisville | 55 | 0.415 | -0.29 | 0.324 | -0.61 | 13.2 | 0.13 | 10.7 | -0.62 |
Buddy Reed, OF - Florida | 55 | 0.354 | -0.82 | 0.345 | -0.35 | 20.4 | 1.47 | 12.7 | -0.30 |
Blake Rutherford, OF - Chaminade College Prep | 55 | 0.660 | 1.81 | 0.587 | 2.61 | 8.0 | -0.83 | 16.0 | 0.22 |
Kyle Lewis, OF - Mercer | 55 | 0.546 | 0.83 | 0.459 | 1.04 | 15.5 | 0.56 | 21.9 | 1.16 |
Delvin Perez, SS - Puerto Rico | 55 | ||||||||
Drew Mendoza, 3B - Lake Mineola HS | 55 | 0.596 | 1.26 | 0.472 | 1.20 | 16.5 | 0.75 | 24.3 | 1.55 |
Mickey Moniak, OF - La Costa Canyon HS | 55 | 0.634 | 1.59 | 0.450 | 0.93 | 5.7 | -1.26 | 10.4 | -0.67 |
Nick Senzel, 3B - Tennessee | 55 | 0.439 | -0.09 | 0.335 | -0.48 | 7.7 | -0.89 | 14.4 | -0.03 |
Josh Lowe, 3B - Pope HS | 55 | ||||||||
Zack Collins, C - Miami | 55 | 0.525 | 0.65 | 0.448 | 0.91 | 16.1 | 0.67 | 28 | 2.14 |
Alex Kirilloff, OF Plum HS | 55 | ||||||||
Bryan Reynolds, OF - Vanderbilt | 50 | 0.457 | 0.07 | 0.392 | 0.22 | 20.4 | 1.47 | 18.1 | 0.56 |
William Benson, OF - The Westminster Schools | 50 | ||||||||
Nolan Jones, 3B - Holy Ghost Prep | 50 | 0.707 | 2.22 | 0.606 | 2.84 | 4.9 | -1.41 | 32.8 | 2.90 |
Ryan Boldt, OF - Nebraska | 50 | 0.357 | -0.79 | 0.335 | -0.48 | 13.5 | 0.19 | 6.3 | -1.32 |
Chris Okey, C - Clemson | 50 | 0.437 | -0.10 | 0.387 | 0.16 | 18.1 | 1.04 | 15.4 | 0.13 |
Avery Tuck, OF - Steele Canyon HS | 50 | ||||||||
Carter Kieboom, 3B - Walton HS | 50 | ||||||||
Gio Brusa, OF - Pacific | 50 | 0.428 | -0.18 | 0.362 | -0.14 | 18.0 | 1.03 | 12.5 | -0.33 |
Joe Rizzo, 3B - Oakton High | 50 | ||||||||
Will Craig, 3B - Wake Forest | 50 | 0.559 | 0.94 | 0.424 | 0.61 | 12.9 | 0.08 | 19.1 | 0.72 |
Sean Murphy, C - Wright State | 50 | 0.380 | -0.59 | 0.260 | -1.39 | 11.8 | -0.13 | 13.6 | -0.16 |
Anfernee Grier, OF, Auburn | 50 | 0.456 | 0.06 | 0.468 | 1.15 | 20.3 | 1.45 | 10.2 | -0.70 |
Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia | 50 | 0.447 | -0.02 | 0.353 | -0.26 | 3.6 | -1.65 | 14.4 | -0.03 |
Nick Kahle, C, Chaminade College Prep | 50 | 0.599 | 1.29 | 0.508 | 1.64 | 12.2 | -0.05 | 18.4 | 0.61 |
Colby Woodmansee, SS, Arizona | 50 | 0.385 | -0.55 | 0.322 | -0.63 | 13.3 | 0.15 | 11.8 | -0.44 |
Taylor Trammell, OF - Mt. Paran Christian | 50 | 0.657 | 1.79 | 0.442 | 0.84 | 8.2 | -0.80 | 20.5 | 0.94 |
Gavin Lux, SS - Indian Trail Academy | 50 | ||||||||
Ben Rortvedt, C - Verona Area HS | 50 | ||||||||
Thomas Jones, OF - Laurens HS | 50 | ||||||||
Heath Quinn, OF - Samford | 50 | 0.464 | 0.13 | 0.356 | -0.22 | 19.5 | 1.30 | 15.3 | 0.11 |
Lucas Erceg, 3B - California | 50 | 0.369 | -0.69 | 0.303 | -0.87 | 11.0 | -0.27 | 6.3 | -1.32 |
Sheldon Neuse, SS - Oklahoma | 50 | 0.482 | 0.28 | 0.425 | 0.63 | 18.0 | 1.03 | 15.5 | 0.15 |
Nonie Williams, SS - Turner HS | 50 | ||||||||
Hunter Bishop, OF - Juniperro Sierra HS | 50 | 0.523 | 0.64 | 0.493 | 0.20 | 13.2 | 0.13 | 17.5 | 0.46 |
Akil Baddoo, OF - Salem HS | 50 | ||||||||
Bryson Brigman, SS - San Diego | 50 | 0.369 | -0.69 | 0.397 | 0.28 | 9.2 | -0.61 | 7.6 | -1.11 |
Cole Stobbe, 3B - Milliard West HS | 50 | 0.607 | 1.36 | 0.373 | -0.01 | 9.6 | -0.53 | 16.7 | 0.34 |
Brandon Marsh, OF - Buford HS | 50 | ||||||||
Bobby Dalbec, 3B - Arizona | 45 | 0.338 | -0.95 | 0.333 | -0.50 | 30.4 | 3.33 | 15.5 | 0.15 |
Nick Banks, OF - Texas A&M | 45 | 0.359 | -0.77 | 0.315 | -0.72 | 18.7 | 1.16 | 9.6 | -0.80 |
Jake Fraley, OF - LSU | 45 | 0.384 | -0.56 | 0.362 | -0.14 | 10.3 | -0.40 | 12.4 | -0.35 |
Cooper Johnson, C - Carmel Catholic HS | 45 | ||||||||
Brett Cumberland, C - California | 45 | 0.471 | 0.19 | 0.370 | -0.05 | 19.0 | 1.21 | 15.8 | 0.19 |
Conner Capel, OF - Seven Lakes HS | 45 | ||||||||
David Martinelli, OF - Dallas Baptist | 45 | 0.455 | 0.05 | 0.387 | 0.16 | 11.6 | -0.16 | 11.6 | -0.48 |
Peter Alonso, 1B - Florida | 45 | 0.444 | -0.04 | 0.372 | -0.02 | 12.9 | 0.08 | 12.4 | -0.35 |
Jameson Fisher, 1B - SE Lousiana | 45 | 0.540 | 0.78 | 0.457 | 1.02 | 11.5 | -0.18 | 20.2 | 0.89 |
C.J. Chatham, SS - Florida Atlantic | 45 | 0.433 | -0.14 | 0.400 | 0.32 | 12.2 | -0.05 | 8.3 | -1.00 |
Jake Rogers, C - Tulane | 45 | 0.300 | -1.28 | 0.283 | -1.11 | 14.8 | 0.43 | 13.8 | -0.13 |
Bo Bichette, OF - Lakewood HS | 45 | 0.814 | 3.14 | 0.533 | 1.95 | 8.3 | -0.78 | 31.3 | 2.66 |
Hudson Sanchez, 3B - Carroll HS | 45 | ||||||||
Walker Robbins, 1B - George County | 45 | 0.571 | 1.05 | 0.515 | 1.73 | 8.7 | -0.70 | 22.3 | 1.23 |
Luis Curbelo, SS - Cocoa HS | 45 | ||||||||
Carlos Cortes, 2B - Lake Howell HS | 45 |
Since our last look at the top hitting prospects, the top performers (in bold above) are: Blake Rutherford, Mickey Moniak, Nolan Jones, Bo Bichette, Drew Mendoza, and Will Craig.
Rutherford continues to stay near the top in terms of wOBA, BABIP, and K percentage, thus keeping his name in the conversation to go 1-1 next month. If there is an area of improvement for Rutherford it is his BB percentage, and while he may not have improved, he stayed equal to his prior percentage with a 16 percent walk percentage this analysis.
Mickey Moniak joins Rutherford as one of the two top high school bats in this year’s draft. Moniak will be a top-10 pick and may sneak into the top five as well. Right now, head to head, I give the edge to Blake Rutherford.
Nolan Jones, whose stats were previously unavailable, is first or second in all the above categories and shaping up to be potentially a mid-to-late first round draft pick. While his stats may be inflated playing at the high school level, he is certainly standing out as we move closer to the draft. In the event he opts to attend college, Jones has committed to Virginia.
Another player whose stats are now available is Drew Mendoza. Mendoza has excelled this spring and looks like a first round pick this June. Jones and Mendoza are rare commodities in that they are left-handed hitting third basemen, and this will only help them as teams decide on whom to take in June. Right now I would give an edge to Nolan Jones.
There is no player in this draft with a stronger baseball bloodline than Bo Bichette. He is the son of Colorado Rockies great Dante Bichette and the brother of Dante Bichette Jr., a first round draft pick of the Yankees in 2011. He is committed to Arizona State, but he looks like a potential second round draft pick this June.
Will Craig continues to prove it was a mistake for him not to be considered a top-50 prospect in the preseason. MLB has him ranked 27th in their most recent prospect rankings. He leads the top collegiate bat Kyle Lewis in wOBA.
Nick Banks has seen his stock fall from the beginning of the 2016 season. In the preseason, MLB had his scouting grade at 50 and most recently dropped it to 45 overall. He is in the bottom five in the above table in wOBA and BABIP but is in the top five in BB percentage. Banks, once thought to be a mid-to-late first round pick, now may be looking at being selected in the second round due to his struggles.
Top 10 Position Players Right Now
1. Kyle Lewis, OF - Mercer
2. Blake Rutherford, OF - Chaminade College Prep
3. Mickey Moniak, OF - La Costa Canyon HS
4. Delvin Perez, SS - Puerto Rico
5. Nick Senzel, 3B - Tennessee
6. Corey Ray, OF- Louisville
7. Buddy Reed, OF - Florida
8. Zack Collins, C - Miami
9. Alex Kirilloff, OF Plum HS
10. Will Craig, 3B - Wake Forest
Now for the pitching prospects:
Players | Scout Grade | IP | ERA | Z-Score | K% | Z-Score | BB% | Z-Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jason Groome, LHP - Barnegat HS | 60 | |||||||
Riley Pint, RHP - ST.TA HS | 60 | |||||||
A.J. Puk, LHP - Florida | 55 | 50.1 | 3.04 | 0.16 | 40.3 | 0.64 | 14.2 | 0.63 |
Connor Jones, RHP - Virginia | 55 | 78.1 | 1.95 | -0.49 | 21.0 | -1.58 | 10.3 | -0.17 |
Jordan Sheffield, RHP - Vanderbilt | 55 | 77.2 | 2.09 | -0.41 | 35.5 | 0.09 | 10.3 | -0.17 |
Ian Anderson, RHP - Shenendehowa HS | 55 | |||||||
Dakota Hudson, RHP - Mississippi State | 55 | 80.1 | 2.80 | 0.02 | 31.8 | -0.34 | 9.7 | -0.30 |
Braxton Garrett, LHP - Florence HS | 55 | 62.1 | 0.56 | -1.32 | 51.7 | 1.95 | 9.1 | -0.42 |
Joey Wentz, LHP - Shawnee Mission East | 55 | |||||||
Forrest Whitley, RHP - Alamo Heights | 55 | |||||||
Alec Hansen, RHP - Oklahoma | 50 | 37.1 | 5.06 | 1.36 | 39 | 0.49 | 20.6 | 1.95 |
Josh Lowe, RHP - Pope HS | 50 | |||||||
Cal Quantrill, RHP - Stanford | 50 | |||||||
Matt Krook, LHP - Oregon | 50 | 46.2 | 5.79 | 1.80 | 26.6 | -0.94 | 25.5 | 2.95 |
Kevin Gowdy, RHP - Santa Barbara HS | 50 | 56.2 | 1.24 | -0.91 | 42.1 | 0.85 | 2.3 | -1.82 |
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP - Louisville | 50 | 69.1 | 4.54 | 1.05 | 28.2 | -0.75 | 16.1 | 1.02 |
Daulton Jefferies, RHP - California | 50 | 42.0 | 1.29 | -0.88 | 28.4 | -0.73 | 3.6 | -1.55 |
Zack Brown, RHP - Kentucky | 50 | 71.1 | 5.93 | 1.88 | 22.2 | -1.44 | 11.9 | 0.16 |
Robert Tyler, RHP - Georgia | 50 | 63.1 | 3.98 | 0.72 | 34.2 | -0.06 | 16.7 | 1.14 |
Logan Shore, RHP - Florida | 50 | 73.2 | 2.32 | -0.27 | 30.0 | -0.54 | 5.2 | -1.22 |
Ian Hamilton, RHP - Washington State | 50 | 69.0 | 5.22 | 1.46 | 22.8 | -1.37 | 9.2 | -0.40 |
Austin Bergner, RHP - Windermere Prep | 50 | 5.0 | 5.60 | 1.69 | 14.8 | -2.29 | 3.7 | -1.53 |
Mike Shawaryn, RHP - Maryland | 50 | 76.0 | 3.32 | 0.33 | 28.5 | -0.72 | 8.4 | -0.56 |
Alex Speas, RHP - McEachern HS | 50 | |||||||
Zach Jackson, RHP - Arkansas | 50 | 48.0 | 4.88 | 1.26 | 33.0 | -0.20 | 19.6 | 1.74 |
Eric Lauer, LHP - Kent State | 50 | 80.1 | 0.90 | -1.12 | 36.1 | 0.16 | 9.4 | -0.36 |
Cody Sedlock, RHP - Illinois | 50 | 83.0 | 2.82 | 0.03 | 35.4 | 0.08 | 9.1 | -0.42 |
Zack Burdi, RHP - Louisville | 50 | 21.2 | 2.49 | -0.17 | 50.0 | 1.76 | 9.7 | -0.30 |
Bailey Clark, RHP - Duke | 50 | 54.1 | 6.13 | 2.00 | 31.9 | -0.33 | 13.3 | 0.44 |
Jon Duplantier, RHP - Rice | 50 | 86.0 | 2.20 | -0.34 | 37.2 | 0.28 | 10.1 | -0.21 |
Matt Manning, RHP - Sheldon High | 50 | 35.1 | 1.58 | -0.71 | 49.0 | 1.64 | 10.5 | -0.13 |
Cole Irvin, LHP- Oregon | 50 | 83.2 | 3.66 | 0.53 | 29.2 | -0.64 | 4.9 | -1.28 |
Jared Horn, RHP - Vintage HS | 50 | 68.0 | 0.41 | -1.41 | 47.2 | 1.43 | 6.1 | -1.04 |
Kyle Muller, LHP - Jesuit College Prep | 50 | 53.0 | 0.26 | -1.50 | 54.9 | 2.32 | 3.3 | -1.61 |
Corbin Burnes, RHP - St. Mary's | 50 | 80.1 | 1.57 | -0.72 | 32.0 | -0.31 | 10.4 | -0.15 |
T.J. Zeuch, RHP - Pittsburgh | 50 | 55.0 | 3.11 | 0.20 | 31.3 | -0.39 | 7.8 | -0.69 |
Anthony Kay, LHP - UCONN | 50 | 83.3 | 2.48 | -0.17 | 30.4 | -0.50 | 9.4 | -0.36 |
Justin Dunn, RHP - Boston College | 50 | 41.1 | 1.31 | -0.87 | 28.8 | -0.68 | 10.8 | -0.07 |
Chad Hockin, RHP - Cal State Fullerton | 50 | 22.0 | 1.23 | -0.92 | 28.8 | -0.68 | 9.6 | -0.32 |
Dane Dunning, RHP - Florida | 50 | 51.0 | 2.65 | -0.07 | 38.9 | 0.48 | 5.6 | -1.14 |
Skylar Szynski, RHP - Penn HS | 50 | |||||||
Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP - Seaman HS | 50 | |||||||
Reggie Lawson, RHP - Victor Valley HS | 45 | 35 | 1.20 | -0.94 | 36.4 | 0.19 | 11 | -0.03 |
Jesus Luzardo, LHP - Stoneman Douglas HS | 45 | |||||||
Ben Bowden, LHP - Vanderbilt | 45 | 43.2 | 3.71 | 0.56 | 39.9 | 0.59 | 8.4 | -0.56 |
Zach Liningfelter, RHP - Sevier County | 45 | |||||||
Cole Ragans, LHP - N. Fla. Christian | 45 | |||||||
Ryan Rolison, LHP - Univ. HS of Jackson | 45 | |||||||
Nick Lodolo, LHP - Damien HS | 45 | |||||||
Braeden Ogle, LHP - Jensen Beach HS | 45 | 35.0 | 1.40 | -0.82 | 40.1 | 0.62 | 10.9 | -0.05 |
Zac Gallen, RHP - North Carolina | 45 | 76.1 | 2.59 | -0.11 | 33.2 | -0.18 | 7.3 | -0.79 |
Lake Bachar, RHP - Wis.-Whitewater | 45 | |||||||
Adam Laskey, LHP - Haddon Heights HS | 45 | |||||||
Matthias Dietz, RHP - John Logan CC | 45 | |||||||
Braden Webb, RHP - South Carolina | 45 | 72.0 | 3.38 | 0.36 | 36.6 | 0.22 | 15.0 | 0.79 |
Nolan Martinez, RHP - Culver City HS | 45 | 43.2 | 0.64 | -1.27 | 42.4 | 0.88 | 9.6 | -0.32 |
The top pitching performers (in bold above) are: Braxton Garrett, Alec Hansen, Logan Shore, and Dane Dunning.
Garrett is in the top three in ERA and K percentage and continues to look like he will be selected in the first round. He has struck out more than half of the batters he has faced. His curveball is his best pitch, and if he decides to go to college Vanderbilt will have the enviable job of developing the strong left-hander.
Alec Hansen is not a name many would think as a top performer this season, but since I began valuing draft-eligible players, he has had made some improvements. Since my last analysis, Hansen threw an addition 11.1 innings and has lowered his ERA from 6.58 to 5.06, raised his K percentage from 35.5% to 39%, and lowered his BB percentage from 25.2% to 20.6%. He was once thought as a number one overall selection, but his struggles in 2016 have him ticketed as a possible second round pick. The talent for Hansen is still there; it is only a question of his control. Also, I would be remiss not to mention another standout collegiate arm in Eric Lauer, who threw a no-hitter this past weekend against Bowling Green.
A.J. Puk continues to be in the conversation to go first overall, but he has two teammates on the Florida Gators who have performed well this season, Logan Shore and Dane Dunning. Among collegiate arms, Shore and Manning are both in the top five in BB percentage. Shore is in the top 10 in ERA, and Manning is in the top 10 in K percentage. Shore is potentially a late first round selection as he leads Florida with Puk into the CWS at the top of the rotation. Dunning has done his damage to Florida’s opposition mostly out of the bullpen. He has five starts in 24 appearances, but according to MLB.com, scouts profile him as a late first to early second round selection and to start at the next level.
Kyle Funkhouser joins the company of Nick Banks as projected first round picks in the preseason who are falling out of the first round. Funkhouser was selected 35th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers last season but did not sign, hoping to improve his draft stock in 2016. He is below average compared to his counterparts in the above table in all three categories. His stock has fallen enough not to be included in MLB.com’s top 100 draft prospects.
Top 10 Pitching Prospects Right Now
1. Jason Groome, LHP - Barnegat HS
2. A.J. Puk, LHP - Florida
3. Riley Pint, RHP - ST.TA HS
4. Connor Jones, RHP - Virginia
5. Braxton Garrett, LHP - Florence HS
6. Dakota Hudson, RHP - Mississippi State
7. Forrest Whitley, RHP - Alamo Heights
8. Jordan Sheffield, RHP - Vanderbilt
9. Logan Shore, RHP - Florida
10. Ian Anderson, RHP - Shenendehowa HS
. . .
Carl Triano is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score.