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There are still a little over two months until the 2016 MLB Draft on June 9th, but it is never too early to take a look at the top prospects available. Over the course of the next two months, I plan to update you on the top prospects available in the draft and, as we get closer, create a mock draft.
The position players are valued based on their wOBA, K%, and BB% and respective Z-Scores. The pitchers are valued based on their ERA, K%, and BB% and respective Z-Scores. In the table below, next to each player is their respective scouting grade (based on a 20-80 scale). The grades are pulled from the MLB top 50 draft prospects on mlb.com. Any player not in their top 50 was given a 50 grade, just for the sake of ranking purposes. Since we are in only April, the high school baseball season has not begun yet, so only college players have their stats available for analysis right now. All stats are as of March 25th.
First, let's take a look at the position players:
| Players | Scout Grade | wOBA | Z-Score | BABIP | Z-Score | K% | Z-Score | BB% | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Ray, OF- Louisville | 55 | 0.438 | -0.10 | 0.315 | -0.54 | 12.1 | -0.64 | 10.1 | -0.78 |
| Buddy Reed, OF - Florida | 55 | 0.380 | -0.71 | 0.361 | 0.05 | 19.8 | 0.65 | 13.5 | -0.28 |
| Blake Rutherford, OF - Chaminade College Prep | 55 | ||||||||
| Kyle Lewis, OF - Mercer | 55 | 0.595 | 1.55 | 0.453 | 1.23 | 9.3 | -1.11 | 21.4 | 0.88 |
| Bryan Reynolds, OF - Vanderbilt | 55 | 0.454 | 0.07 | 0.431 | 0.94 | 24.2 | 1.38 | 20.2 | 0.70 |
| Delvin Perez, SS - Puerto Rico | 55 | ||||||||
| Drew Mendoza, 3B - Lake Mineola HS | 55 | ||||||||
| Mickey Moniak, OF - La Costa Canyon HS | 50 | ||||||||
| Nick Senzel, 3B - Tennessee | 50 | 0.458 | 0.11 | 0.377 | 0.25 | 10.6 | -0.89 | 23.4 | 1.18 |
| Bobby Dalbec, 3B - Arizona | 50 | 0.414 | -0.35 | 0.329 | -0.36 | 26.7 | 1.80 | 20.9 | 0.81 |
| Nick Banks, OF - Texas A&M | 50 | 0.391 | -0.59 | 0.348 | -0.12 | 16.1 | 0.03 | 7.3 | -1.20 |
| Josh Lowe, 3B - Pope HS | 50 | ||||||||
| William Benson, OF - The Westminster Schools | 50 | ||||||||
| Nolan Jones, 3B - Holy Ghost Prep | 50 | ||||||||
| Jake Fraley, OF - LSU | 50 | 0.437 | -0.11 | 0.403 | 0.59 | 8.4 | -1.26 | 14.7 | -0.11 |
| Ryan Boldt, OF - Nebraska | 50 | 0.364 | -0.88 | 0.329 | -0.36 | 13.1 | -0.47 | 7 | -1.24 |
| Chris Okey, C - Clemson | 50 | 0.393 | -0.57 | 0.346 | -0.14 | 20.8 | 0.82 | 14.3 | -0.17 |
| Avery Tuck, OF - Steele Canyon HS | 50 | ||||||||
| Carter Kicboom, 3B - Walton HS | 50 | ||||||||
| Gio Brusa, OF - Pacific | 50 | 0.271 | -1.86 | 0.264 | -1.19 | 23.2 | 1.22 | 4.6 | -1.60 |
| Joe Rizzo, 3B - Oakton High | 50 | ||||||||
| Will Craig, 3B - Wake Forest | 50 | 0.626 | 1.88 | 0.447 | 1.15 | 10.4 | -0.92 | 16.4 | 0.14 |
| Zack Collins, C - Miami | 50 | 0.557 | 1.15 | 0.432 | 0.96 | 13.9 | -0.34 | 27.9 | 1.84 |
| Sean Murphy, C - Wright State | 50 | 0.486 | 0.41 | 0.167 | -2.44 | 14.2 | -0.29 | 14.2 | -0.18 |
The top performers (in bold above) through the beginning of the season are: Kyle Lewis, Bryan Reynolds, Will Craig, Nick Senzel, Jake Fraley, and Zack Collins. Craig, a junior from Wake Forest, was not a top-50 preseason prospect, but he is off to a great start. If he continues on his current pace, he has potential to move up some teams' draft boards. Lewis continues to show why he may be worthy of a top 10 selection this June. He is in the top 3 in all of the above categories and also has already hit 11 home runs in only 24 games. His strikeout rate is well below the mean and his walk rate is well above the mean. Reynolds will need to cut down on his strikeouts, as a 24.2 K rate with a 1.38 Z-Score is not where a player of his caliber should be. From Yasmani Grandal's alma mater, Collins, one of the top catching prospects in this year's draft, offensively is making a name for himself, and MLB organizations are always looking for a left-handed hitting catcher with a solid bat.
The struggling players so far are: Gio Brusa, Sean Murphy, and Ryan Boldt. These three players will need to improve their numbers as the draft approaches. Fortunately for them, it is still early in the season for them to turn it around. In particular Brusa has to get on base more as well as cut down on his strikeouts. Blake Rutherford, a high school prospect, will be a player to watch in next month's rankings.
Top 10 Position Players Right Now
1. Kyle Lewis, OF - Mercer
2. Bryan Reynolds, OF - Vanderbilt
3. Blake Rutherford, OF - Chaminade College Prep
4. Corey Ray, OF- Louisville
5. Buddy Reed, OF - Florida
6. Jake Fraley, OF - LSU
7. Nick Senzel, 3B - Tennessee
8. Will Craig, 3B - Wake Forest
9. Zack Collins, C - Miami
10. Delvin Perez, SS - Puerto Rico
Now for the pitching prospects:
| Players | Scout Grade | IP | ERA | Z-Score | K% | Z-Score | BB% | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Groome, LHP - Barnegat HS | 60 | |||||||
| A.J. Puk, LHP - Florida | 60 | 24 | 1.88 | -0.84 | 28.7 | -0.09 | 9.9 | -0.14 |
| Alec Hansen, RHP - Oklahoma | 60 | 20 | 7.65 | 2.35 | 38.8 | 1.62 | 25 | 2.13 |
| Riley Pint, RHP - ST.TA HS | 60 | |||||||
| Connor Jones, RHP - Virginia | 55 | 34.2 | 1.56 | -1.02 | 23.7 | -0.94 | 5.7 | -0.77 |
| Jordan Sheffield, RHP - Vanderbilt | 55 | 30.1 | 0.88 | -1.40 | 34.8 | 0.94 | 9.3 | -0.23 |
| Josh Lowe, RHP - Pope HS | 50 | |||||||
| Cal Quantrill, RHP - Stanford | 50 | INJ. | INJ. | INJ. | INJ. | INJ. | INJ. | INJ. |
| Matt Krook, LHP - Oregon | 50 | 21.2 | 5.40 | 1.11 | 31.6 | 0.40 | 18.8 | 1.20 |
| Kevin Gowdy, RHP - Santa Barbara HS | 50 | |||||||
| Kyle Funkhouser, RHP - Louisville | 50 | 28.2 | 4.40 | 0.55 | 22.1 | -1.21 | 15.5 | 0.70 |
| Dalton Jefferies, RHP - California | 50 | 42 | 1.29 | -1.17 | 28.4 | -0.14 | 3.6 | -1.09 |
| Zack Brown, RHP - Kentucky | 50 | 28 | 5.14 | 0.96 | 18.5 | -1.82 | 9.6 | -0.19 |
| Robert Tyler, RHP - Georgia | 50 | 26.1 | 3.42 | 0.01 | 36.4 | 1.21 | 10.2 | -0.10 |
| Logan Shore, RHP - Florida | 50 | 32.1 | 2.23 | -0.65 | 32.8 | 0.60 | 2.5 | -1.25 |
| Ian Anderson, RHP - Shenendehowa HS | 50 | |||||||
| Ian Hamilton, RHP - Washington State | 50 | 29.2 | 3.64 | 0.13 | 25.5 | -0.64 | 7.1 | -0.56 |
| Austin Bergner, RHP - Windermere Prep | 50 | |||||||
| Dakota Hudson, RHP - Mississippi State | 50 | 39.2 | 1.13 | -1.26 | 27.2 | -0.35 | 27.6 | 2.52 |
| Mike Shawaryn, RHP - Maryland | 50 | 35.1 | 3.82 | 0.23 | 21.9 | -1.25 | 9.9 | -0.14 |
| Alex Speas, RHP - McEachern HS | 50 | |||||||
| Zach Jackson, RHP - Arkansas | 50 | 15 | 4.20 | 0.44 | 27.2 | -0.35 | 18.1 | 1.09 |
| Reggie Lawson, RHP - Victor Valley HS | 50 | |||||||
| Eric Lauer, LHP - Kent State | 50 | 38.2 | 1.16 | -1.24 | 30.2 | 0.16 | 10.5 | -0.05 |
| Jesus Luzardo, LHP - Stoneman Douglas HS | 50 | |||||||
| Braxton Garrett, LHP - Florence HS | 50 | |||||||
| Cody Sedlock, RHP - Illinios | 50 | 38.2 | 3.26 | -0.08 | 27.6 | -0.28 | 6.2 | -0.70 |
| Ben Bowden, LHP - Vanderbilt | 50 | 25 | 4.68 | 0.71 | 30.9 | 0.28 | 7.2 | -0.55 |
| Zack Burdi, RHP - Louisville | 50 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 0.72 | 43.7 | 2.45 | 9.3 | -0.23 |
| Zach Livingfelter, RHP - Sevier County | 50 | |||||||
| Bailey Clark, RHP - Duke | 50 | 29.2 | 5.76 | 1.31 | 25.5 | -0.64 | 9.3 | -0.23 |
| Jon Duplantier, RHP - Rice | 50 | 42 | 2.57 | -0.46 | 30.3 | 0.18 | 8.4 | -0.37 |
| Matt Manning, RHP - Sheldon High | 50 | |||||||
| Cole Irvin, LHP- Oregon | 50 | 40.2 | 2.66 | -0.41 | 28.5 | -0.13 | 3.8 | -1.06 |
The top performers (in bold above) through the beginning of the season are: A.J. Puk, Jordan Sheffield, Daulton Jefferies, Logan Shore, and Connor Jones. Puk will be competing with Jason Groome, a high school pitcher and one of the top prospects in this year's draft, to be the number one pick in the draft. Florida has been fortunate to have both Puk and Shore leading their rotation. Both players have continued to reassure teams they are worthy of being a top-50 preseason draft prospect. If there is one aspect of Jones's game he can improve upon, it is his strikeouts. Other than that he continues to state his case to be a top 10 selection. The season is still in the early stages, but if Jefferies continues to pitch the way he is, he can be a name to watch as a pitcher moving up draft boards. Over the next month, another high school arm to watch will be Riley Pint.
Alec Hansen, Kyle Funkhouser (drafted by the Dodgers last season), and Zack Brown are three pitchers with high potential who have struggled so far this season. Hansen, a potential top five pick in this year's draft, has struggled greatly to start this year. He has the second worst walk rate out of the above pitchers, in front of only Dakota Hudson. Funkhouser reentered this year's draft with the hope of moving up from the 35th overall selection he was last year. He has not achieved that goal yet; he needs to show why he is counted on as the ace of Louisville's staff. Brown, who was ahead of Logan Shore in the preseason top 50, has been outperformed by Shore to start the season. Brown will need to miss more bats over the next month to stay ahead of Shore in the eyes of MLB teams.
This year's draft has a surplus of pitching prospects, so the top 10 will be very close all season leading up to the draft.
Top 10 Pitching Prospects Right Now
1. Jason Groome, LHP - Barnegat HS
2. A.J. Puk, LHP - Florida
3. Riley Pint, RHP - ST.TA HS
4. Jordan Sheffield, RHP - Vanderbilt
5. Alec Hansen, RHP - Oklahoma
6. Connor Jones, RHP - Virginia
7. Dalton Jefferies, RHP - California
8. Logan Shore, RHP - Florida
9. Josh Lowe, RHP - Pope HS
10. Robert Tyler, RHP - Georgia
. . .
Carl Triano is a contributor at Beyond the Box Score.