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Last year, Beyond the Box Score conducted a poll of its writers and editors before the season started, and a second one before the playoffs began. In all, 26 total responses were collected; zero writers picked either the Royals or the Giants to make the World Series.
Before this year, 14 writers submitted predictions. Of the six eventual division winners, only two (the Dodgers and Cardinals) received a single vote to win their division. The Blue Jays received three votes to make a wild card; the other four AL playoff teams were completely shut out. Eight different teams were picked to make the World Series; only two -- the Pirates and the Dodgers -- even made the playoffs, and three finished below .500. I mean, our consensus World Series champion was the Washington Nationals, for crissakes.
A different website would see those results and say, "We're due!" But not us. We here at Beyond the Box Score are well-versed in the Gambler's Fallacy, so instead we say, "The Law of Large Numbers means that eventually someone will randomly happen upon a World Series participant!"*
*-Actually, we go on to say other things about how this technically assumes that World Series picks actually follow a random distribution and so on, but that's when I stop listening to us.
Let's get back on that horse and see who of our 17 blind squirrels will be the one to finally find that nut.
First, a summary of all our picks (made prior to the AL Wild Card game, clearly), along with current pennant and World Series odds from VegasInsider.com.
| Team | LDS Votes | LCS Votes | WS Votes | LCS Odds | WS Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10/1 | 16/1 |
| Blue Jays | 17 | 14 | 7 | 7/5 | 3/1 |
| Cardinals | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2/1 | 5/1 |
| Cubs | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5/1 | 12/1 |
| Dodgers | 8 | 5 | 4 | 5/2 | 6/1 |
| Mets | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5/2 | 6/1 |
| Pirates | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9/2 | 12/1 |
| Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3/1 | 12/1 |
| Royals | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9/4 | 5/1 |
| Yankees | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8/1 | 14/1 |
Your consensus World Series pick, then, is the Blue Jays over the Dodgers. You can practically hear the screams and cries of disappointment coming from LA and Toronto. If gambling were legal, this is where I'd recommend shorting those two teams.
Actually, it's even worse than that for Blue Jays fans: every single writer picked them to win their ALDS matchup. You know what that means: congratulations to the Texas Rangers on their three-game sweep and possible AL championship.
Let's just move on to the individual summary, where you can see how our writers voted, and who they picked to win the honor of World Series MVP, a new car, and (with any luck) a painfully awkward conversation with that Chevy exec.
| Writer | AL Wild Card | NL Wild Card | ALDS | ALDS | NLDS | NLDS | ALCS | NLCS | World Series | WS MVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Cole | Yankees over Astros | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Yankees over Royals (5) | Dodgers over Mets (4) | Cardinals over Cubs (3) | Yankees over Blue Jays (5) | Cardinals over Dodgers (6) | Yankees over Cardinals (6) | Masahiro Tanaka |
| Bryan Grosnick | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (5) | Dodgers over Mets (4) | Cubs over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (6) | Dodgers over Cubs (5) | Dodgers over Blue Jays (5) | Clayton Kershaw |
| Chris Teeter | Astros over Yankees | Pirates over Cubs | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (4) | Dodgers over Mets (4) | Pirates over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (6) | Dodgers over Pirates (6) | Dodgers over Blue Jays (6) | Clayton Kershaw |
| Dan Weigel | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Astros over Royals (5) | Mets over Dodgers (4) | Cubs over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Astros (5) | Mets over Cubs (6) | Blue Jays over Mets (7) | David Price |
| Eric Garcia McKinley | Yankees over Astros | Pirates over Cubs | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Yankees (5) | Dodgers over Mets (3) | Pirates over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (7) | Pirates over Dodgers (6) | Blue Jays over Pirates (6) | Cliff Pennington |
| Henry Druschel | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Astros over Royals (5) | Dodgers over Mets (5) | Cardinals over Cubs (3) | Blue Jays over Astros (5) | Dodgers over Cardinals (7) | Blue Jays over Dodgers (6) | Munenori Kawasaki!! [sic] |
| Joe Vasile | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (3) | Mets over Dodgers (4) | Cubs over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (6) | Mets over Cubs (5) | Mets over Blue Jays (6) | Wilmer Flores |
| Justin Perline | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Astros over Royals (5) | Mets over Dodgers (5) | Cubs over Cardinals (5) | Astros over Blue Jays (7) | Mets over Cubs (7) | Astros over Mets (6) | Carlos Correa |
| Kevin Ruprecht | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (4) | Mets over Dodgers (5) | Cardinals over Cubs (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (5) | Cardinals over Mets (6) | Blue Jays over Cardinals (6) | Josh Donaldson |
| Matt Goldman | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Astros over Royals (5) | Mets over Dodgers (5) | Cubs over Cardinals (4) | Blue Jays over Astros (5) | Cubs over Mets (6) | Cubs over Blue Jays (7) | Kyle Schwarber |
| Matt Jackson | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (5) | Mets over Dodgers (4) | Cubs over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (6) | Cubs over Mets (5) | Blue Jays over Cubs (5) | Ryan Goins |
| Michael Bradburn | Astros over Yankees | Pirates over Cubs | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Astros over Royals (5) | Dodgers over Mets (3) | Pirates over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Astros (6) | Dodgers over Pirates (7) | Dodgers over Blue Jays (5) | Zack Greinke |
| Neil Weinberg | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (5) | Mets over Dodgers (5) | Cubs over Cardinals (4) | Blue Jays over Royals (6) | Cubs over Mets (5) | Blue Jays over Cubs (4) | Jose Bautista |
| Nick Stellini | Astros over Yankees | Pirates over Cubs | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Astros over Royals (5) | Mets over Dodgers (5) | Pirates over Cardinals (5) | Astros over Blue Jays (7) | Pirates over Mets (6) | Pirates over Astros (6) | Francisco Cervelli |
| Shawn Brody | Astros over Yankees | Pirates over Cubs | Blue Jays over Rangers (5) | Royals over Astros (4) | Dodgers over Mets (4) | Cardinals over Pirates (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (6) | Cardinals over Dodgers (7) | Cardinals over Blue Jays (5) | Matt Carpenter |
| Spencer Bingol | Astros over Yankees | Cubs over Pirates | Blue Jays over Rangers (4) | Royals over Astros (5) | Mets over Dodgers (5) | Cubs over Cardinals (5) | Blue Jays over Royals (5) | Cubs over Mets (6) | Blue Jays over Cubs (6) | Edwin Encarnacion |
| Tom O'Donnell | Yankees over Astros | Pirates over Cubs | Blue Jays over Rangers (3) | Yankees over Royals (5) | Dodgers over Mets (5) | Pirates over Cardinals (4) | Blue Jays over Yankees (5) | Dodgers over Pirates (6) | Dodgers over Blue Jays (6) | Justin Turner |
Leave your predictions in the comments below. And don't get upset if we picked your favorite team: we had to pick someone.
. . .
Bryan Cole is a featured writer at Beyond the Box Score who knows that Michael Schur and Joe Posnanski have doomed us to a Yankees-Cardinals World Series. You can follow him on Twitter at @Doctor_Bryan.