Javier Baez: It begins

Welcome to the big leagues, Javier Baez -- best I can tell, this link lists players who hit a walk-off or game-winning home run in extra innings in their first game. Way to make an entrance, and way to make me completely re-write my opening to this post. As a Cubs fan, feel free to do this whenever you want.

Most Cubs fans are aware of their plan for developing sustained excellence -- build a solid farm system, develop the young talent and don't waste money on over-priced free agents (like Edwin Jackson ). It's easy to articulate, far more difficult to accomplish and creates pent-up demand for excellence amongst the fan base. Team President Theo Epstein and General Manager Jed Hoyer have not been shy in their statements that patience is a virtue, with Epstein going so far as to say:

I’m shaking my head at the notion that we should make baseball decisions based on the notion that we should give our fans cookies. We’re cooking the whole meal. We want to give them an annual feast. The only way to make fans happy is to give them pennant races and October baseball.

To their credit they've been true to their word and the time is at hand. Arismendy Alcantara was brought up last month, and Javier Baez joined him Tuesday evening. Every team is excited when their young prospects are brought up, but the buildup to Baez has been nothing short of unbelievable. Baseball Prospectus 2014 wrote this about him:

If you listen carefully when Baez swings from his heels and makes solid contact, you'll hear both a thunderclap and a choir of angels singing hosannas to the fastest bats in the minors . . . Baez may never post high OBPs or win Gold Gloves, but the possibility of game-changing power at a premium position has Cubs fans hoping to see him in Wrigley this summer.

That wish has been granted -- if you think the prose set a high threshold, look at the Oliver projections from FanGraphs:

Year	Age	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2014	21	143	600	35	79	98	12	5.8%	34.0%	.240	.292	.495	.337	110	0.9	7.8	13.8	4.3
2015	22	143	600	40	84	107	12	6.0%	32.8%	.250	.302	.534	.357	124	0.9	16.9	13.8	5.3
2016	23	143	600	43	88	114	12	6.3%	31.8%	.258	.313	.561	.372	134	1.3	24.3	13.8	6.1
2017	24	143	600	45	90	118	12	6.5%	31.2%	.262	.318	.577	.381	140	1.3	28.5	13.8	6.5
2018	25	143	600	46	91	120	12	6.8%	30.8%	.265	.323	.583	.385	144	1.2	30.6	13.8	6.7

I tweeted these projections Monday evening and was inundated with responses, including these from two men for whom I have tremendous respect:

Damn... RT @ScottLindholm: #Cubs I do this with great trepidation--Javier Baez 5-year Oliver projections pic.twitter.com/2dFmFTkquc

— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) August 5, 2014

#damn RT @ScottLindholm: #Cubs I do this with great trepidation--Javier Baez 5-year Oliver projections pic.twitter.com/XvhY5eHAJL

— Brandon Lee (@bleeinternets) August 5, 2014

Indeed. I was reminded by Harry Pavlidis of the Baseball Prospectus projections:

Year	Age	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
2015	22	625	86	148	29	3	36	101	26	175	20	.255	.296	.502	.286	2.8
2016	23	604	80	141	29	3	31	92	24	169	19	.252	.291	.482	.276	2.9
2017	24	625	85	146	29	3	34	98	29	178	20	.252	.297	.490	.280	3.1
2018	25	633	87	148	29	3	36	101	28	176	20	.251	.294	.492	.281	3.1
2019	26	609	83	142	28	3	34	97	26	172	19	.251	.293	.492	.280	3.0
2020	27	625	85	149	29	3	34	99	26	165	20	.255	.298	.492	.282	3.1
2021	28	619	84	148	28	3	34	96	26	164	19	.254	.295	.486	.279	2.9
2022	29	622	83	149	28	3	33	96	22	154	18	.256	.294	.486	.279	2.8
2023	30	611	82	146	28	3	32	93	25	156	17	.255	.296	.481	.277	2.7

These are stunningly high expectations for a man not yet turned 22. To project anyone with 30+ home run power in this day and age, let alone a middle infielder, is setting the bar extremely high.

So far I've shown projections -- what about actual results? The following tables are from Daren Willman's outstanding MLBfarm.com (PS -- drop Daren a tweet since he's about to become a first-time father). All the data can be seen here, and this first chart shows Baez' minor league numbers for 2013-2014:

Year	League	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	E	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BB%	K%
2014	AAA	388	64	101	24	2	23	80	34	130	16	8	15	.260	.323	.510	.833	.250	7.8	30.0
2013	A+	299	59	82	19	4	17	57	21	78	12	2	31	.274	.338	.535	.873	.261	6.2	23.1
2013	AA	218	39	64	15	0	20	54	19	69	8	2	13	.294	.346	.638	.984	.344	7.9	28.8
Total		905	162	247	58	6	60	191	74	277	36	12	59	.273	.333	.549	.882	.276	7.3	27.4

This chart shows the results of his at-bats:

Yes, the strikeouts are a concern, even for a power hitter. Yes, it's hard to miss the fact he has almost as many home runs as walks. Yes, his strikeout rate of 30% would be among the highest in baseball this year, and none of this takes his fielding into consideration or what position he's going to play. And yes, he did strike out in three of his six at-bats in his debut game.

And as a completely rational Cubs fan, I don't care! The Cubs have been down so low for the past couple of years that any ray of sunshine will be gratefully accepted. The Cubs need pitching since there's a very good chance it's not currently in their system, but with enough prospects and with a willingness to spend this can be addressed fairly quickly.

Things are going to start happening very quickly for the Cubs --  approval for Wrigley renovations finally appears to have been resolved, but I'll believe it when our daughter tells me heavy equipment is in the area. Other young talent like Jorge Soler, Albert Almora and Kris Bryant is on the cusp with more on the way. Will they all become huge stars and change baseball the way the Yankees' Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte did over a ten-year span? That's far too high an expectation to place on any group of prospects, but I will cautiously state that it's not outside the realm of possibility. The young Cubs are coming, ready to turn irrational exuberance into sustained excellence. As a cruel teaser, these are the Baseball Prospectus projections for Kris Bryant:

Year	Age	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	TAv	WARP
2015	23	250	30	54	11	1	10	33	13	71	1	.232	.277	.418	.250	1.5
2016	24	452	53	96	19	1	18	58	23	129	2	.231	.276	.410	.247	1.7
2017	25	606	75	133	26	2	27	83	32	170	2	.237	.284	.432	.258	2.7
2018	26	618	76	131	24	2	26	82	35	177	3	.230	.281	.419	.253	2.4
2019	27	632	80	135	27	1	28	87	38	175	2	.234	.287	.432	.259	2.8
2020	28	627	77	134	26	1	25	81	40	171	2	.235	.291	.417	.256	2.6
2021	29	638	82	142	25	1	28	87	41	157	1	.244	.300	.435	.264	3.1
2022	30	628	77	137	25	2	25	81	38	158	1	.236	.289	.415	.254	2.4
2023	31	629	77	136	24	2	24	80	40	151	0	.237	.293	.411	.254	2.4

It could be the best of times to be a Cubs fan, it could be the worst. No matter what, the plans of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are about to come to fruition and judged as a success or failure. Part of any of the call-ups includes starting the clock towards when players will be eligible for free agency, but the Cubs have shown the willingness to lock up young talent like Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, making that clock almost an afterthought. In the end the Cubs will be judged not on how they managed a payroll but on winning, and they're poised to enter a period of sustained excellence in both aspects if all goes as planned, the most important (and overlooked) caveat in sports.

Just wait 'til next year. Scratch that -- the wait may be over.

Data from FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Prospectus and MLBfarm

Scott Lindholm lives in Davenport, IA. Follow him on Twitter @ScottLindholm.