CAL 2.0: Digging in deeper with hitters

Two weeks ago I rolled out a shiny new analytic – a player classification system I dubbed CAL, or Comparison And Likeness. The quick overview of it is quite simple: CAL is based off of Bill James’ Similarity Scores, but uses a litany of differently weighted statistics to compare prospects against each other.

Well, after the rollout some of the initial feedback asked if I could tweak the system to show player comps for multiple seasons, not just one year at a time in hopes to paint a more complete picture, and as the guys that run the Steamer Projections can attest, systems like this are always evolving. (Steamer is in its sixth iteration.)

So, I hunkered down for the past two weeks, spending close to sixty hours and much of my remaining patience, and retooled CAL to determine a player’s top comps based on three years of data, not just one.

First, a few things to note:

• The closer the CAL scores to 1000 the better.
• CAL was run for the below examples when a player has at least 200 plate appearances for a single level unless otherwise noted.
• I was originally using James’ positional values – 240 for catcher, 12 for first base, 132 for second base, etc… – but after a thorough research-and-development portion I determined CAL is more effective for multiple seasons using different values.
• Finally -- and most importantly -- remember that’s it’s crucial to examine the group as a whole, not just cherry pick. For example, Joey Votto comes up as the top comp for Jackie Bradley, but the other four players suggest something entirely different. My interpretation of this is quite simple: this is CAL's way of displaying a prospect's volatility, perhaps highlighting a projected ceiling and floor. The more consistent the top five are, the more likely the player is to reach that level of production. And likewise, the more scattered the top five, the less likely the player is to reach his projected ceiling.

Now, the examples: Below I’ve provided 41 instances of CAL – both proving its accuracy (and usefulness) and explaining why CAL failed in certain comparisons. (It’s a bit lengthy, so feel free to bounce around.)

Mike Moustakas:

Comparison	CAL
Dayan Viciedo	931.17
Wilmer Flores	915.54
Josh Vitters	914.07
Jedd Gyorko	908.14
Brett Wallace	907.24

Moustakas batted .311/.362/.588 during his stints in Class AA and Class AAA – numbers that came against competition that averaged at least three years his senior. But despite the robust production, CAL lumped him in with a group that included Brett Wallace, another fellow draft bust in Josh Vitters, who was coincidentally chosen directly after Moustakas, a disappointing international free agent, and a player that looks absolutely lost this season. Career production in terms of wRC+: 91 (Gyorko), 93 (Wallace), 95 (Viciedo), and 84 (Moustakas).

Brandon Wood:

Comparison	CAL
Jerry Sands	896.79
Alex Liddi	894.52
Sean Rodriguez	886.30
Luke Hughes	878.35
Pedro Alvarez	877.84

Wood’s another big time prospect bust. To best show CAL’s effectiveness, I ran the algorithms based on his production between the ages of 21 and 23 – a time in which he was ranked among the top 20 prospects each season by some of the most well respected analysts and media outlets. Wood hit .281/.356/.546 and slugged 79 home runs during those 332 games.

Well, only one big league regular, Alvarez, topped the league average offensive production (barely) in his career. And Rodriguez, the only other player to carve out a lengthy big league career, has posted a 90 wRC+ in a super-utility role.

Andrelton Simmons:

Comparison	CAL
Ozzie Martinez	955.49
Josh Harrison	952.34
Mark Hallberg	949.02
Joe Panik	947.21
Eduardo Nunez	947.18

Let’s play a game. Match the players’ offensive WAR per 600 plate appearances during their respective big league careers. Player A: 1.66 WAR/600PA. Player B: 2.34 WAR/600PA. Player C: 1.73 WAR/600PA.

The answers (in order from A through C): Andrelton Simmons, Josh Harrison, and Eduardo Nunez. Remember, CAL doesn’t look at a player’s defensive contributions, only his offensive abilities. And while Simmons is an elite, elite defender (a potential Hall of Famer solely based on that ability), he’s been 12% below the league average offensive production in his big league career, something CAL had pointed out despite his hitting .299/.352/.397 in the minors.

Dustin Ackley:

Comparison	CAL
Jose Pirela	947.93
Johnny Giavotella	932.27
Matt Antonelli	927.11
Adrian Cardenas	921.98
Jemile Weeks	920.59

Ackley, another #2 overall pick, was viewed as the premium collegiate bat in 2009’s draft class and a potential cornerstone to Seattle’s rebuild at that time. CAL grouped him with two players that couldn’t hack it in the big leagues, Giavotella and Weeks, another top prospect bust in Antonelli, and a career minor leaguer (Cardenas).

Dayan Viciedo:

Comparison	CAL
David Winfree	961.80
Josh Vitters	958.86
Brett Wallace	958.16
Joel Guzman	952.02
Jonathan Schoop	950.70

Viciedo, who’s failed to top the league average production in each of his three full big league seasons, hit .283/.331/.450 during his trek through the minor leagues. Pretty much the same comps as Moustakas, which shouldn’t be surprising. All fringe big leaguers with the exception of Schoop, where the jury’s still out.

Yan Gomes:

Comparison	CAL
Welington Castillo	941.60
J.P. Arencibia	924.06
Travis Scott	918.71
Cody Puckett	918.18
Travis D'Arnaud	917.88

Gomes was pretty much a nondescript player when Cleveland acquired him as part of the Esmil Rogers trade with Toronto in late November 2012. Immediately following the trade, Tribe beat writer Paul Hoynes wrote that, "[GM Chris] Antonetti said Gomes will go to spring training with a chance to make the team either as a second or third catcher."

Since then, however, he’s been the fifth best offensive catcher in baseball – a shock to some, though not entirely so to CAL.

Castillo topped the league average offensive production by 5% from 2012 to 2013 en route to tallying 3 WAR last season; d’Arnaud has long been considered a top offensive catching prospect and is finally starting to figure things out at the big league level (he’s hit .264/.304/.465 since June 24) and Arencibia has slugged 71 career home runs.

The point: Based on his comps, CAL thought there was a strong chance that some big league value could be extracted from Gomes and it was right. It just didn’t think Gomes would be this good, but who did?

Mike Trout:

Comparison	CAL
Jason Heyward	974.74
Byron Buxton	970.92
Justin Upton	946.34
Colby Rasmus	922.24
Manny Machado	899.33

No shock here, really. Trout’s top CALs have been some of the best prospects, and subsequently young stars, in baseball.

Jay Bruce:

Comparison	CAL
Adam Jones	920.33
Oswaldo Arcia	854.96
Wil Myers	843.39
Chris Davis	840.38
David Winfree	839.79

An impressive trio of names to be linked with: Jones, Davis, and Myers. And Arcia has been a league average performer through his age-23 season with Minnesota.

Alcides Escobar:

Comparison	CAL
Danny Santana	961.38
Marcus Lemon	960.40
Hernan Perez	955.99
Adeiny Hechavarria	954.00
Justin Sellers	952.36

Another top prospect letdown, Escobar’s CALs shouldn’t be all that surprising given his lack of offensive punch at the big league level: a group of light hitting infielders. Escobar, by the way, hit .293/.333/.377 in his minor league career, but owns a career .261/.298/.346 line at the big league level and much of his value comes from the defensive side of the ball.

Jason Heyward:

Comparison	CAL
Colby Rasmus	954.06
Jonathan Schoop	944.21
Freddie Freeman	942.20
Mike Moustakas	912.70
Mike Trout	907.28

There were only two stops for Heyward that CAL could effectively run – his 2008 in low Class A and 2009 in high Class A (remember: I only use sample sizes of at least 200 PA). But despite the lack of data, CAL still linked him with three regulars in Trout, Freeman, and Rasmus. The Moustakas comp is pretty scary though, perhaps highlighting his floor.

Matt Kemp:

Comparison	CAL
Nick Franklin	911.67
Oswaldo Arcia	879.55
Michael Saunders	876.63
Felix Pie	876.51
Chris Lubanski	865.09

This was a major miss by CAL, comparing Kemp with two busts and three good, not great big leaguers. However, there were just 426 minor league plate appearances CAL could use in analyzing Kemp, which should be considered a small sample size considering that three years of data was the original goal.

Kris Bryant:

Comparison	CAL
George Springer	885.98
Pedro Alvarez	865.58
Miguel Sano	852.02
Anthony Rizzo	847.00
Ryan Lavarnway	842.83

This one shouldn’t really be surprising either. CAL compares the game’s top prospect with three impact bats (Springer, Sano, and Rizzo). The Alvarez tie-in would seem to indicate a potential issue with Bryant’s contact ability, as his strikeout percentage is hovering around 27% in Class AAA. Again, an incredibly small sample size for CAL.

Billy Hamilton:

Comparison	CAL
Shane Peterson	953.41
John Andreoli	947.17
Daryl Jones	939.31
Jefry Marte	936.05
Reymond Fuentes	935.38

Since Hamilton’s hot spell cooled, his production has been 7% below the league average. His top CALs are all fourth outfielder types. The difference is his plus-plus-plus speed, which CAL had trouble sniffing out. Hamilton could hover around the 90 wRC+-mark and still be a three- or four-win player because of his defense. His subpar year in Class AAA did him in with CAL, though.

Giancarlo Stanton:

Comparison	CAL
Miguel Sano	931.02
Jay Bruce	918.86
Travis Snider	895.94
Jaff Decker	894.51
Anthony Rizzo	880.20

The Stanton-Sano-Bruce-Rizzo quartet is pretty reasonable. Decker’s grouped in because of his numbers in the lower levels of the minor leagues, which increasingly worsened as he moved up the ladder. And, well, Snider never really panned out.

One additional thing to note: Stanton’s comps were thrown off a bit because his production cratered in his first stint in Class AA (.231/.311/.455), but I still included it in the CAL calculations instead of his low Class A numbers because I didn’t want to skew the comps to help convince people of its usefulness.

Billy Butler:

Comparison	CAL
Logan Morrison	941.21
Wilmer Flores	920.58
Ji-Man Choi	919.92
Daric Barton	895.35
Freddie Freeman	886.54

Of Butler’s top five CALs, no one has topped 30 home runs in a season. Prior to this year, Morrison owned a 108 wRC+ and Butler a 120. And the Morrison-Barton-Choi trio are all power-deficient first basemen.

Ben Revere:

Comparison	CAL
Ender Inciarte	963.78
Todd Cunningham	951.91
Justin Bass	949.76
Bridger Hunt	947.29
Brandon Roberts	942.95

There's not a whole lot that separates Revere, the starting center fielder and faux leadoff hitter, and Revere, the slap-hitting, serviceable fourth outfielder. He doesn’t walk much or hit for any power; it’s empty batting averages and stolen bases. His top two CALs, Inciarte and Cunningham, are the basic fourth/fifth outfielders. And through his first 1830 plate appearances, Revere owns a career 84 wRC+.

Mark Trumbo:

Comparison	CAL
Brock Peterson	986.55
Alex Dickerson	978.21
Erik Lis	975.15
Chad Tracy	974.98
Allen Craig	972.58

Trumbo does one thing pretty well: hit for power. Otherwise, his overall production (109 wRC+) is certainly bordering on mediocrity, especially for his position, and one that doesn’t suggest a lengthy big league career as an everyday type guy – pretty similar to that of Chad Tracy. Outside of Craig, it’s a handful of bench bat options.

Carlos Santana:

Comparison	CAL
Matt Wieters	902.29
Buster Posey	885.29
Yasmani Grandal	870.03
Tyler Flowers	861.32
Javier Brito	859.84

At least in the local media (I live in Cleveland), Santana is constantly hounded for his low batting averages, but even in a down year like 2014 – he’s hitting .231/.369/.433 – his overall production has topped the league average by 31% thanks to his power/patience combo.

Career wRC+s: 112 (Grandal), 128 (Santana) and 137 (Posey), and Wieters has certainly flashed thump in his offensive game.

Joey Gallo:

Comparison	CAL
Miguel Sano	669.47
Giancarlo Stanton	600.55
Chris Carter	599.31
Telvin Nash	557.51
Cody Johnson	547.94

Gallo’s registered the lowest CAL scores that I’ve seen at this point – and probably will ever see. Basically, there’s no reasonable comp for him; he’s a one of a kind. He’s swings-and-misses a ton, has gobs of power, and walks. But he’s also shown a drastic improvement in his K-rate, followed by a massive step backward.

Jed Lowrie:

Comparison	CAL
Steve Tolleson	983.98
Josh Johnson	978.70
Zelous Wheeler	974.63
Ryan Khoury	973.29
Jake Lemmerman	967.16

This is another one of CAL’s bigger misses: not one MLB-worthy guy in the bunch. The problem: Lowrie had one truly great season (2007) followed by two average-ish stints in the minors. Again, I chose not to run the comparison using Lowrie’s 177 plate appearances in Class AAA in 2007 so as not to skew CAL in his favor.

Justin Upton:

Comparison	CAL
Colby Rasmus	958.07
Christian Yelich	957.50
Nick Delmonico	952.22
Jason Heyward	949.58
Mike Trout	948.93

Again, not very surprising.

Anthony Rizzo:

Comparison	CAL
Jerry Sands	934.45
Adam Jones	911.67
Nick Evans	906.58
Jay Bruce	901.51
Wil Myers	888.06

The Sands and Evans groupings are the outlier (obviously). Both absolutely mashed throughout their respective minor league careers. But the Bruce, Jones, Myers comps are reasonable. CAL had some reservations about Rizzo's ability to reach his potential—clearly.

Charlie Blackmon:

Comparison	CAL
Alejandro De Aza	994.35
Kevin Thompson	982.86
Alex Presley	980.50
Jeff Salazar	980.41
Cole Gillespie	978.77

A lot of fringe everyday-type guys and solid, useful bats. The 994.35 CAL score for De Aza suggests a high comparison. Career wRC+s: 93 for Blackmon and 97 for De Aza.

Byron Buxton:

Comparison	CAL
Bryce Harper	940.40
Mike Trout	927.23
Christian Yelich	910.89
Ryan Westmoreland	910.27
Colby Rasmus	906.29

There’s really nothing more to add, truthfully.

Nick Castellanos:

Comparison	CAL
Jonathan Schoop	888.82
Edinson Rincon	886.31
Matt Dominguez	883.75
Lonnie Chisenhall	872.31
David Winfree	872.28

It’s way too early to determine Castellanos’s ceiling, but outside of one stint in high Class A in 2012 he’s never really dominated at the minor league level. Dominguez and Chisenhall are solid league average regulars, which Schoop has a chance to be too, and they seem like reasonable comps. Castellanos, by the way, is hitting just .258/.309/.404 in his rookie campaign.

Mookie Betts:

Comparison	CAL
Jose Altuve	976.62
Marcus Semien	953.44
Wilmer Flores	950.42
Devon Travis	950.09
Nick Franklin	947.01

I chuckled when Altuve jumped out at the top of Betts’s list, because it’s the one I was suspecting. Smaller middle infield bats with pop.

Corey Seager:

Comparison	CAL
Jay Bruce	925.63
Javier Baez	916.62
Xander Bogaerts	914.68
Alen Hanson	907.37
Addison Russell	903.26

Pretty nice comps for a middle infielder: four former top prospects and one who has a chance to be a decent regular.

Cameron Maybin:

Comparison	CAL
Brett Jackson	979.54
Michael Saunders	962.49
John Tolisano	959.33
Slade Heathcott	944.73
Josh Bell	944.55

OK. Let’s play another game. Guess the effectiveness of Cameron Maybin’s bat. Has he been 11% below the league average, 11% above the league average, or right at the league average?

The answer: he’s been 11% below the league average in nearly 2000 plate appearances. His reputation has basically been coasting off of his 4-win season from 2011, which has been the only time he’s topped the league average (and that was just by 5%).

For his CALs, I used his 2007 through 2009 minor league numbers -- each year he topped the league average production by at least 25%. But CAL suggested one major bust (maybe two), one league average performer, and Tolisano. CAL could have been useful in the Miguel Cabrera deal for Miami, huh?

Oscar Taveras:

Comparison	CAL
Wilmer Flores	982.78
Matt Kemp	967.38
Preston Tucker	944.14
Stephen Piscotty	943.13
Gregory Polanco	943.03

Taveras has long been among the game’s better prospects, so it’s not surprising to see him linked with Kemp, Polanco, and Piscotty. Flores and Tucker have both handled themselves well in the minor leagues, though each have yet to prove it in the bigs. CAL hasn’t been impressed by Taveras’s Class AAA numbers.

Elvis Andrus:

Comparison	CAL
Odubel Herrera	922.50
Leury Garcia	915.66
Juniel Querecuto	911.58
Jose Pirela	908.02
Oscar Tejeda	906.22

Now six full seasons into his big league career – and an eight-year, $120 million contract in his pocket – Andrus has been a well below-average hitter, posting a career wRC+ of 84. Average-ish walk rate, speed and little pop isn’t exactly a recipe for stardom, so it’s not surprising to see Andrus linked with five light-hitting middle infielders. Andrus’ above-average defense has helped buoy his WAR totals.

Xander Bogaerts:

Comparison	CAL
Nick Franklin	918.25
Arismendy Alcantara	899.26
Jonathan Schoop	891.35
Manny Machado	882.47
David Winfree	876.18

Franklin, Alcantara, and Machado are all promising, reasonable comps. Schoop has been talked about previously. And Winfree flamed out. Perhaps Bogaerts isn’t quite a lock for stardom?

Chris Carter:

Comparison	CAL
Jerry Sands	945.79
Pedro Alvarez	941.41
Kala Ka'Aihue	933.99
Koby Clemens	931.64
Cody Decker	922.76

Carter absolutely mashed during the 21- to 23-year-old seasons which CAL analyzed, as he posted an OPS of at least .930 in each one. But CAL was quite hesitant, linking him with just one big league regular, a pair of Quad-A types, and two flame outs. Carter owns a career .222/.312/.459 line with a 113 wRC+. This was sort of half-win/half-loss for CAL.

Pedro Alvarez:

Comparison	CAL
Jerry Sands	912.68
Chris Carter	904.93
Brandon Wood	891.50
Matt Clark	890.93
Marvin Lowrance	886.03

This sort of falls into the same category as Carter: Alvarez was grouped with Carter (no surprise) and a bunch of career minor leaguers. Again, sort of a half-win/half-loss for CAL; it recognized that Alvarez was overrated as a prospect, but only linked him to one reasonable big leaguer. Alvarez, by the way, was named among the game’s top 10 prospects.

Michael Brantley:

Comparison	CAL
Cedric Hunter	944.59
Adrian Cardenas	939.21
L.J. Hoes	930.73
Jacoby Ellsbury	920.72
J.B. Shuck	914.32

Brantley has been arguably the biggest surprise in baseball this season, tying Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig, and Jason Heyward with 4.6 fWAR. Brantley’s already nearly doubled his power output and has posted a ridiculous 156 wRC+.

Prior to this year, though, he was basically a fringy league average bat, something that matched his minor league numbers (he’s a career .303/.388/.377 MiLB hitter). CAL linked him with four backup types and one All Star. You can draw your own conclusions from that.

Adam Eaton:

Comparison	CAL
Jose Pirela	949.41
Sean Henry	930.42
Jamie Hoffmann	927.79
Jacoby Ellsbury	925.98
L.J. Hoes	925.88

Basically, it’s a similar list of comps as Brantley.

Javier Baez:

Comparison	CAL
Jay Bruce	999.70
Brandon Wood	972.71
Sean Coyle	949.31
Bobby Borchering	948.86
Adam Jones	941.75

The Jay Bruce and Adam Jones comps bookend two prospect busts and another underrated minor leaguer. CAL’s obviously skeptical of Baez’s swing-and-miss tendency. And Baez’s slow start in AAA this season certainly skewed his overall comps.

Jackie Bradley:

Comparison	CAL
Joey Votto	953.54
Preston Tucker	953.24
Mike Carp	951.56
Eric Thames	950.79
Brock Peterson	945.73

The Votto comparison is incredibly promising, but looking at the group as a whole the overwhelming majority of the evidence suggest that Bradley’s headed for below average offensive production (role player-dom). The fact that he’s hitting .208/.284/.303 through his first 142 games would seem to back that up.

Joc Pederson:

Comparison	CAL
Brett Jackson	890.60
Michael Saunders	877.87
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	873.88
Nick Weglarz	862.80
Wil Myers	860.25

I’ve long been on the Joc Pederson bandwagon, twice naming him among the game’s top 100 prospects (2013 and 2014). But, man, four of those five CALs are downright scary. The lone hope is Myers, but the evidence is suggesting Pederson quite doesn’t live up to the hype.

Freddie Freeman:

Comparison	CAL
Jason Heyward	947.24
Edinson Rincon	937.41
Kyle Blanks	933.89
.Daniel Vogelbach	931.69
Matthew Sweeney	931.42

This would be another miss by CAL. Yes, the Heyward comparison is quite promising, but outside of that it’s a mixed bag

Francisco Lindor:

Comparison	CAL
Jose Pirela	979.16
Tyler Pastornicky	965.66
Reegie Corona	955.68
Justin Sellers	950.14
Luis Sardinas	940.37

As a Clevelander, I find this downright depressing. But Lindor’s always performed just slightly above the league average in terms of offense, so the fact that he’s linked to light-hitting middle infielders isn’t shocking. If his plus-plus defense is as good as the reports suggest, Lindor could be another guy in the Elvis Andrus mold, who also had several of the same CAL players.

Desmond Jennings:

Comparison	CAL
Shin-Soo Choo	956.03
Eric Patterson	954.84
Christian Marrero	947.21
Adron Chambers	944.17
David Murphy	944.09

This one bounces around a ton: going from the likes of All Star-type production to league average regular to role guys. Jennings’ offense slides somewhere in between.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

For more analysis check out Joe Werner's site: ProspectDigest.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @JoltinJoey