Improving the win

I listen to 670 The Score in Chicago for my sports information, and last Thursday (May 8th), Cubs TV play-by-play announcer Len Kasper was on the McNeil and Spiegel Show. Host Matt Spiegel and guest host Laurence Holmes were discussing the fate of Jeff Samardzija so far this year, who to date has eight starts, seven quality starts, a 1.45 ERA . . . and zero wins. Len went on to discuss one way to revamp the win-loss record:

@ScottLindholm Best idea for W/L would be eliminate cheap wins & tough losses from every guy's rec. Would at least get closer to reality.

— Len Kasper (@LenKasper) May 8, 2014

@ScottLindholm No, QS is not win--you have to have QS to QUALIFY for win. Conversely, you have to have NON-QS to qualify for loss.

— Len Kasper (@LenKasper) May 8, 2014

@ScottLindholm So you're throwing out losses in games you pitch well (ND instead), & eliminating wins when you stink (those become NDs too)

— Len Kasper (@LenKasper) May 8, 2014

It took me a couple tweets to get it right, but in essence Len is suggesting recalibrating wins and losses to better reflect pitcher performance. Len went on to write about this in a column in Sunday's Daily Herald.

The link in my first tweet goes to a page at Baseball-Reference.com that tabulates and defines cheap wins and tough losses for starting pitchers:

Cheap wins--Wins in starts with < 6 IP or more than 3 ER. Or wins in non-quality starts.

Tough losses--losses in quality starts

Part of my discussion with Len involved Cubs pitcher Travis Wood, who has the following numbers so far in his career:

29 wins, 39 losses, 62 quality starts (out of 101), 2 cheap win, 14 tough losses and 34 no-decisions

Last year was typical for Wood -- 32 games started, 24 quality starts, 3.11 ERA and a 9-12 record to show for it. Using Len's transformation, Wood's career numbers would change from 28-39 to 27-25. Reviewed using traditional measures, Wood appears average at best, but changing the view toward one based on what Wood can control depicts a more effective pitcher, one with a winning percent far exceeding his team's -- .519 vs. the Cubs .386.

This data is available going back to 1938, and this table shows pitchers most helped by this change since 2000, with explanation to follow (minimum 100 games started):

Pitcher	From	To	GS	W	L	W%	ND	Wc	Lt	Wa	La	Wa%	W%d
Josh Johnson	2005	2013	160	57	43	.570	60	9	20	48	23	.676	.106
Jordan Zimmermann	2009	2014	120	45	36	.556	39	7	16	38	20	.655	.100
Travis Wood	2010	2014	100	29	39	.426	34	2	14	27	25	.519	.093
Clayton Kershaw	2008	2014	185	79	46	.632	60	7	19	72	27	.727	.095
Jon Niese	2008	2014	125	45	42	.517	38	8	18	37	24	.607	.089
C.J. Wilson	2005	2014	147	65	39	.625	43	10	17	55	22	.714	.089
Ben Sheets	2001	2012	250	94	96	.495	60	15	39	79	57	.581	.086
Brandon Webb	2003	2009	198	87	62	.584	49	8	23	79	39	.669	.086
David Price	2008	2014	155	74	42	.638	39	10	17	64	25	.719	.081
Cole Hamels	2006	2014	248	99	76	.566	73	15	30	84	46	.646	.080
Anibal Sanchez	2006	2014	178	62	61	.504	55	8	22	54	39	.581	.077
Adam Wainwright	2007	2014	193	103	58	.640	32	15	23	88	35	.715	.076
Jake Peavy	2002	2014	312	132	99	.571	81	21	38	111	61	.645	.074
Roy Oswalt	2001	2013	341	159	99	.616	83	19	36	140	63	.690	.073
James Shields	2006	2014	259	103	85	.548	71	13	30	90	55	.621	.073
R.A. Dickey	2003	2014	181	70	66	.515	45	6	21	64	45	.587	.072
Jered Weaver	2006	2014	239	117	62	.654	60	17	24	100	38	.725	.071
Madison Bumgarner	2009	2014	123	53	42	.558	28	9	16	44	26	.629	.071
Matt Cain	2005	2014	271	93	91	.505	87	17	35	76	56	.576	.070
Felix Hernandez	2005	2014	277	113	87	.565	77	14	30	99	57	.635	.070

ND=no decision

Wc=cheap win

Lt=tough loss

Wa=adjusted wins, subtracting the cheap wins from the actual, leaving wins that were also a quality start. La likewise removed the tough losses, with Wa% the adjusted winning percent for the pitcher. The table is sorted by win percent difference (W%d) of the two methods, showing Josh Johnson as the pitcher most penalized by playing for teams that gave him no run support, followed closely by Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Kershaw and . . . Travis Wood.

Some time ago I saw a tweet from MLB Historian John Thorn regarding the win in early baseball history -- my memory was hazy, and he was kind enough to set me straight:

@ScottLindholm ERA was made official in the AL 1913. Ban Johnson loved it, told official scorers not to record wins or losses (thru 1919).

— John Thorn (@thorn_john) May 5, 2014

Almost one hundred years ago the man who was the first commissioner of the American League saw the win as inferior to other more informative measures. He was foresighted enough to see this even when pitchers were completing a fair number of games started -- look how that percentage has changed over time:

It's been almost one hundred years since pitchers completed even half of their games and almost forty since completing twenty-five percent -- Old Hoss Radbourn left the building a long, long time ago.

Baseball front offices left the win behind as a meaningful measuring stick of pitcher effectiveness years ago and understand the failure to score runs shouldn't be blamed on the pitcher. This message is gradually spreading, but it's still not uncommon to hear people complain how the win is still relevant. I'm sure Jeff Samardzija is bothered to not have any wins, but he knows it's not due to any true shortcomings on his part, and his agent (Mark Rodgers) is certainly aware of how Cubs losses in Samardzija's starts stem from the fact the Cubs have given him the worst run support among starting pitchers in all of baseball.

It's a tough battle, but with broadcasters like Len Kasper and his partner Jim Deshaies who don't just call the game but attempt to explain and enhance the viewers knowledge, it's one that will be won. I admire what Len did in not just complaining about an archaic stat but making it better and more informative as well.

As I was writing this post, I received a tweet from one of my favorite people to follows on Twitter, HighHeatStats, who suggested I look at starter effectiveness in a different way. I gathered the data, and to say my mind has been opened is an understatement. I'll write about it next Monday.

Data from Baseball-Reference.com. Any mistakes in amalgamating it are the author's. Special thanks to Len Kasper for taking the time to discuss this with me.

Scott Lindholm lives in Davenport, IA and has been waiting 'til next year for the better part of his life. Follow him on Twitter @ScottLindholm.