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On Opening Day (i.e. Monday — you don't count, Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Padres), I was looking to set my fantasy lineups. Since Max Scherzer accrued 6.4 fWAR and won the Cy Young in 2013, I figured he'd be starting the game for Detroit; however, the Tigers — perhaps fearful of his bobblehead — gave the ball to Justin Verlander. This got me thinking: How common is it for a pitcher to excel in one season, then not lead off the next?
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Thanks to the combination of freely available historical statistics and no social commitments whatsoever, I was able to find out. I looked back to 1914, since that's as far as Baseball-Reference's Opening Day database goes. For the sake of simplicity, I just isolated the one best starter from each season. I did my best to remove those who didn't start due to injuries or other issues (feel free to reprimand me in the comments if I've overlooked something), and I went with the previous season's WAR, since that determines the Opening Day starter.
Table!
| Preceding Year | OD Year | Snub | Snub WAR | OD Starter | OD Starter WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1913 | 1914 | Christy Mathewson | 5.8 | Rube Marquard | 5.2 |
| 1914 | 1915 | Earl Moseley | 6.9 | Cy Falkenberg | 10.4 |
| 1915 | 1916 | Dave Davenport | 9 | Bob Groom | 2.8 |
| 1916 | 1917 | Al Demaree | 5.5 | Hippo Vaughn | 5 |
| 1917 | 1918 | Hippo Vaughn | 6.1 | Pete Alexander | 9.9 |
| 1918 | 1919 | Eddie Cicotte | 5.4 | Lefty Williams | 0.8 |
| 1919 | 1920 | Eddie Cicotte | 6.5 | Lefty Williams | 5.9 |
| 1920 | 1921 | Red Faber | 6.3 | Dickie Kerr | 3.6 |
| 1921 | 1922 | Stan Coveleski | 6.7 | Guy Morton | 1.8 |
| 1922 | 1923 | Wilbur Cooper | 6.3 | Johnny Morrison | 4.6 |
| 1923 | 1924 | Dolf Luque | 7.4 | Tom Sheehan | --- |
| 1924 | 1925 | Howard Ehmke | 6.4 | Alex Ferguson | 3.1 |
| 1925 | 1926 | Dazzy Vance | 8.2 | Jesse Petty | 0.7 |
| 1926 | 1927 | Carl Mays | 4.7 | Pete Donohue | 4.9 |
| 1927 | 1928 | Dazzy Vance | 5.7 | Jesse Petty | 3.7 |
| 1928 | 1929 | Lefty Grove | 7.2 | Carroll Yerkes | 0.1 |
| 1929 | 1930 | Pat Malone | 5.4 | Sheriff Blake | 3 |
| 1930 | 1931 | Lefty Grove | 8.1 | Rube Walberg | 3.7 |
| 1931 | 1932 | Lefty Grove | 7.9 | Lefty Gomez | 4.7 |
| 1932 | 1933 | Lefty Grove | 7.4 | Tony Freitas | 1.6 |
| 1933 | 1934 | Bump Hadley | 5.9 | George Blaeholder | 4 |
| 1934 | 1935 | Tommy Bridges | 5.1 | Schoolboy Rowe | 5.4 |
| 1935 | 1936 | Lefty Grove | 7.5 | Wes Ferrell | 6 |
| 1936 | 1937 | Johnny Allen | 7.1 | Mel Harder | 4.3 |
| 1937 | 1938 | Lefty Grove | 7.9 | Jim Bagby | --- |
| 1938 | 1939 | Lefty Gomez | 6.1 | Red Ruffing | 5.6 |
| 1939 | 1940 | Tommy Bridges | 5.7 | Bobo Newsom | 7.1 |
| 1940 | 1941 | Tommy Bridges | 5.1 | Bobo Newsom | 6.3 |
| 1941 | 1942 | Whit Wyatt | 7 | Curt Davis | 2.5 |
| 1942 | 1943 | Bobo Newsom | 4.8 | Ed Head | 0.9 |
| 1943 | 1944 | Mort Cooper | 6.4 | Max Lanier | 4.8 |
| 1944 | 1945 | Dizzy Trout | 7.6 | Hal Newhouser | 7.3 |
| 1945 | 1946 | Preacher Roe | 7.3 | Fritz Ostermueller | 0.7 |
| 1946 | 1947 | Dizzy Trout | 5.7 | Hal Newhouser | 10.2 |
| 1947 | 1948 | Warren Spahn | 6.7 | Johnny Sain | 5.7 |
| 1948 | 1949 | Bob Lemon | 5.2 | Bob Feller | 4.5 |
| 1949 | 1950 | Howie Pollet | 5.9 | Gerry Staley | 3.2 |
| 1950 | 1951 | Warren Spahn | 5.7 | Vern Bickford | 3.7 |
| 1951 | 1952 | Larry Jansen | 5.6 | Sal Maglie | 4.8 |
| 1952 | 1953 | Bobby Shantz | 6.5 | Alex Kellner | 2.9 |
| 1953 | 1954 | Warren Spahn | 6.7 | Bob Buhl | 1.9 |
| 1954 | 1955 | Mike Garcia | 6.4 | Bob Lemon | 4.4 |
| 1955 | 1956 | Willard Nixon | 5.1 | Frank Sullivan | 5.3 |
| 1956 | 1957 | Early Wynn | 6.9 | Billy Pierce | 6.6 |
| 1957 | 1958 | Curt Simmons | 5 | Robin Roberts | 2.5 |
| 1958 | 1959 | Sam Jones | 6.1 | Johnny Antonelli | 2.4 |
| 1959 | 1960 | Jim Owens | 5 | Robin Roberts | 4.4 |
| 1960 | 1961 | Mike McCormick | 5.5 | Sam Jones | 4.4 |
| 1961 | 1962 | Sandy Koufax | 6.6 | Johnny Podres | 2.7 |
| 1962 | 1963 | Billy O'Dell | 7.1 | Jack Sanford | 4 |
| 1963 | 1964 | Dick Ellsworth | 7.2 | Larry Jackson | 7.1 |
| 1964 | 1965 | Dean Chance | 6.9 | Fred Newman | 3.1 |
| 1965 | 1966 | Sandy Koufax | 10.7 | Claude Osteen | 4.3 |
| 1966 | 1967 | Gaylord Perry | 8 | Juan Marichal | 7.1 |
| 1967 | 1968 | Gaylord Perry | 6.2 | Juan Marichal | 4.2 |
| 1968 | 1969 | Sam McDowell | 6.5 | Luis Tiant | 7 |
| 1969 | 1970 | Bob Veale | 6.7 | Steve Blass | 2 |
| 1970 | 1971 | Bill Hands | 7.3 | Fergie Jenkins | 10.5 |
| 1971 | 1972 | Tom Bradley | 7.3 | Wilbur Wood | 8.4 |
| 1972 | 1973 | Phil Niekro | 6.6 | Gary Gentry | 0.6 |
| 1973 | 1974 | Bill Singer | 6.6 | Nolan Ryan | 8.9 |
| 1974 | 1975 | Jon Matlack | 7.4 | Tom Seaver | 4.6 |
| 1975 | 1976 | Ron Reed | 7.4 | Jim Kaat | 5.5 |
| 1976 | 1977 | Rick Reuschel | 5.1 | Ray Burris | 3 |
| 1977 | 1978 | Nolan Ryan | 6.4 | Frank Tanana | 5.6 |
| 1978 | 1979 | Lary Sorensen | 5 | Mike Caldwell | 6.4 |
| 1979 | 1980 | Tommy John | 6.8 | Ron Guidry | 6.1 |
| 1980 | 1981 | Len Barker | 5.3 | Bert Blyleven | 4 |
| 1981 | 1982 | Bill Gullickson | 5 | Steve Rogers | 3.3 |
| 1982 | 1983 | Joaquin Andujar | 6 | Bob Forsch | 2.6 |
| 1983 | 1984 | John Denny | 5.8 | Steve Carlton | 7.3 |
| 1984 | 1985 | Doyle Alexander | 5.3 | Dave Stieb | 5.9 |
| 1985 | 1986 | Bert Blyleven | 7.4 | Frank Viola | 4.5 |
| 1986 | 1987 | Roger Clemens | 7.8 | Bob Stanley | 1.1 |
| 1987 | 1988 | Nolan Ryan | 6.6 | Mike Scott | 5.6 |
| 1988 | 1989 | Bret Saberhagen | 6 | Mark Gubicza | 6.7 |
| 1989 | 1990 | Mark Gubicza | 6.9 | Bret Saberhagen | 8.1 |
| 1990 | 1991 | Greg Maddux | 5.4 | Danny Jackson | 1.6 |
| 1991 | 1992 | Greg Swindell | 6.1 | Jose Rijo | 5.9 |
| 1992 | 1993 | Kevin Brown | 6.4 | Craig Lefferts | 2.5 |
| 1993 | 1994 | Steve Avery | 5.2 | Greg Maddux | 7.7 |
| 1994 | 1995 | Bret Saberhagen | 5.1 | Bobby Jones | 1.9 |
| 1995 | 1996 | Hideo Nomo | 4.8 | Ramon Martinez | 1.7 |
| 1996 | 1997 | Greg Maddux | 7.7 | John Smoltz | 8.2 |
| 1997 | 1998 | John Smoltz | 6.7 | Greg Maddux | 8 |
| 1998 | 1999 | Greg Maddux | 7.4 | Tom Glavine | 4.7 |
| 1999 | 2000 | Kevin Millwood | 5.5 | Greg Maddux | 5.6 |
| 2000 | 2001 | Greg Maddux | 7 | John Burkett | 2.4 |
| 2001 | 2002 | Curt Schilling | 7.4 | Randy Johnson | 10.4 |
| 2002 | 2003 | Curt Schilling | 9.3 | Randy Johnson | 8 |
| 2003 | 2004 | Esteban Loaiza | 6.8 | Mark Buehrle | 4.2 |
| 2004 | 2005 | Johan Santana | 7.5 | Brad Radke | 5.7 |
| 2005 | 2006 | Pedro Martinez | 5.8 | Tom Glavine | 3.4 |
| 2006 | 2007 | Mike Mussina | 5.4 | Carl Pavano | --- |
| 2007 | 2008 | Josh Beckett | 6.5 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | --- |
| 2008 | 2009 | Dan Haren | 6.1 | Brandon Webb | 5.5 |
| 2009 | 2010 | Javier Vazquez | 6.2 | CC Sabathia | 6.1 |
| 2010 | 2011 | Cliff Lee | 7 | Roy Halladay | 6.1 |
| 2011 | 2012 | Dan Haren | 6.2 | Jered Weaver | 5.7 |
| 2012 | 2013 | Gio Gonzalez | 5.1 | Stephen Strasburg | 4.1 |
| 2013 | 2014 | Max Scherzer | 6.4 | Justin Verlander | 5.2 |
Some stray observations:
- How about those late-90s Braves? I suppose having too many awesome pitchers is a good problem to have.
- Lefty Grove got bumped in six different seasons — the most of any of these pitchers — by six different pitchers. He made seven Opening Day starts as a whole, though, so I guess he did pretty well. (Oh, and he's in the Hall of Fame.)
- Funny story about 1961. Those Giants elected to start Mike McCormick in their fourth game; they gave the ball to Sam Jones on Opening Day. McCormick didn't wait until Game 4, though — he entered Game 1 as a reliever...and promptly gave up a 2-out, walk-off homer. That's right: McCormick was snubbed for the Opening Day start, but still managed to take the loss in the season's first game. Baseball!
- Mark Gubicza beat out Bret Saberhagen for the 1989 start? No worries — Saberhagen got him back the next year.
This is hardly a necessary exercise — the whole "Opening Day" starter thing is pretty overblown anyway; moreover, many of these guys weren't actually snubs, they just happened to be on a team with a better pitcher. Despite the lightheartedness of this activity, it's another mile marker that tells us baseball is back.
. . .
All WAR data courtesy of FanGraphs. All Opening Day statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
Ryan Romano is a featured contributor for Beyond the Box Score. He's also written on the FanGraphs Community blog and on Camden Chat that one time. Follow him on Twitter at @triple_r_ if you enjoy angry tweets about Maryland sports and live tweeting about Community, Thursdays at 8/7c on NBC. Cool. Coolcoolcool.