/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/28156403/149318379.0.jpg)
I saw this tweet a couple nights ago from Neal Kendrick which piqued my interest:
In 1969 Luis Tiant allowed the most walks and the most homers in the AL.(Also had the most losses, for what that's worth) He had a 101 ERA+.
— Neal Kendrick (@neal_kendrick) February 4, 2014
I'm old enough to remember watching Tiant pitch as a kid, but only as a Red Sox--I never saw him pitch in Cleveland, which is just as well. I looked up his 1969 FIP- on FanGraphs and saw it was a horrendous 125. That's a pretty big difference in FIP- vs. ERA+, which got me curious.
The definitions of ERA- and FIP- can be viewed in whatever detail is desired here. I changed Neal's number to ERA- so I could gather all the data from FanGraphs and that the metrics would be on the same scale. To briefly explain, Tiant's 1969 ERA was 1% better and FIP 25% worse than the league, a pretty big difference between the two metrics.
Where does Tiant's season rank? I checked all seasons since 1950 in which a pitcher had 20 or more starts with a ERA- of 99 or lower, meaning his ERA was better than league average. This was over 3,000 player-seasons and I used [ERA-] - [FIP-] to look for the greatest differences.
In Tiant's case this would be (99-125) or -26. This put him in some very select company:
Name | Team | Year | Age | G | GS | W | L | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | FIP- | ERA- | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Cowley | Yankees | 1985 | 26 | 30 | 26 | 12 | 6 | 159.2 | 3.95 | 5.54 | -0.8 | 139 | 98 | -41 |
Pat Mahomes | Twins | 1994 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 120.0 | 4.73 | 6.21 | 0.1 | 128 | 97 | -31 |
Joaquin Andujar | Athletics | 1986 | 33 | 28 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 155.1 | 3.82 | 4.93 | 0.1 | 126 | 98 | -28 |
Luis Tiant | Indians | 1969 | 28 | 38 | 37 | 9 | 20 | 249.2 | 3.71 | 4.83 | 0.3 | 125 | 99 | -26 |
Dennis Cook | Indians | 1992 | 29 | 32 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 158.0 | 3.82 | 4.94 | 0.1 | 126 | 97 | -29 |
Steve Stone | Orioles | 1979 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 11 | 7 | 186.0 | 3.77 | 5.06 | 0.2 | 127 | 94 | -33 |
Tom Browning | Reds | 1988 | 28 | 36 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 250.2 | 3.41 | 4.50 | 0.3 | 125 | 96 | -29 |
Click on table to enlarge. Click on column headings to sort.
On the surface there are decent seasons represented, but the relatively low numbers of strikeouts, high numbers of walks, and a tendency toward giving up home runs drove the FIP value higher. These are the pitchers FIP identifies as being the beneficiary of events outside their control.
How about more recent pitchers? This chart shows seasons since 2000 with a difference of -15 or greater:
Name | Team | Year | Age | G | GS | W | L | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | FIP- | ERA- | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chuck James | Braves | 2007 | 25 | 30 | 30 | 11 | 10 | 161.1 | 4.24 | 5.48 | 0.2 | 123 | 96 | -27 |
Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 2013 | 34 | 33 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 211.2 | 4.04 | 4.79 | 1.1 | 119 | 99 | -20 |
Jose Lima | Dodgers | 2004 | 31 | 36 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 170.1 | 4.07 | 5.09 | 0.2 | 120 | 98 | -22 |
A.J. Griffin | Athletics | 2013 | 25 | 32 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 200.0 | 3.83 | 4.55 | 1.4 | 118 | 99 | -19 |
Jacob Turner | Marlins | 2013 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 118.0 | 3.74 | 4.43 | 0.3 | 117 | 99 | -18 |
Paul Abbott | Mariners | 2001 | 33 | 28 | 27 | 17 | 4 | 163.0 | 4.25 | 5.01 | 0.8 | 117 | 99 | -18 |
Dave Bush | Brewers | 2008 | 28 | 31 | 29 | 9 | 10 | 185.0 | 4.18 | 4.93 | 0.9 | 116 | 99 | -17 |
Jason Johnson | Orioles | 2001 | 27 | 32 | 32 | 10 | 12 | 196.0 | 4.09 | 5.12 | 0.7 | 120 | 95 | -25 |
Click on table to enlarge. Click on column headings to sort.
These are seasons we can recall, including three from 2013, A.J. Griffin, Jacob Turner and White Sox nemesis Jeremy Guthrie. This chart has the side benefit of giving a glimpse of the capriciousness of the win as a measure of pitcher effectiveness, but that's an issue for another day.
Often ERA- and FIP- both identify outstanding pitcher seasons--this chart shows pitchers with dominant FIP- and ERA- seasons since 2000:
Name | Team | Year | Age | G | GS | W | L | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR | FIP- | ERA- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pedro Martinez | Red Sox | 2000 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 217.0 | 1.74 | 2.17 | 9.9 | 46 | 35 |
Pedro Martinez | Red Sox | 2003 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 186.2 | 2.22 | 2.21 | 7.8 | 49 | 48 |
Pedro Martinez | Red Sox | 2002 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 199.1 | 2.26 | 2.24 | 7.8 | 51 | 50 |
Randy Johnson | Diamondbacks | 2001 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 21 | 6 | 249.2 | 2.49 | 2.13 | 10.4 | 46 | 55 |
Zack Greinke | Royals | 2009 | 25 | 33 | 33 | 16 | 8 | 229.1 | 2.16 | 2.33 | 9.1 | 53 | 48 |
Randy Johnson | Diamondbacks | 2004 | 40 | 35 | 35 | 16 | 14 | 245.2 | 2.60 | 2.30 | 9.5 | 48 | 57 |
Randy Johnson | Diamondbacks | 2000 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 19 | 7 | 248.2 | 2.64 | 2.53 | 9.5 | 52 | 56 |
Roger Clemens | Astros | 2005 | 42 | 32 | 32 | 13 | 8 | 211.1 | 1.87 | 2.87 | 5.6 | 67 | 44 |
Mark Prior | Cubs | 2003 | 22 | 30 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 211.1 | 2.43 | 2.47 | 7.5 | 57 | 57 |
Randy Johnson | Diamondbacks | 2002 | 38 | 35 | 35 | 24 | 5 | 260.0 | 2.32 | 2.66 | 8.0 | 60 | 54 |
Josh Johnson | Marlins | 2010 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 11 | 6 | 183.2 | 2.3 | 2.41 | 6.1 | 60 | 56 |
Rich Harden | - - - | 2008 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 148.0 | 2.07 | 2.95 | 4.5 | 68 | 48 |
Tim Lincecum | Giants | 2009 | 25 | 32 | 32 | 15 | 7 | 225.1 | 2.48 | 2.34 | 7.5 | 56 | 60 |
Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 2013 | 25 | 33 | 33 | 16 | 9 | 236.0 | 1.83 | 2.39 | 6.5 | 66 | 51 |
Roy Halladay | Phillies | 2011 | 34 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 6 | 233.2 | 2.35 | 2.20 | 8.1 | 56 | 61 |
Jason Schmidt | Giants | 2003 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 207.2 | 2.34 | 2.64 | 6.6 | 62 | 56 |
Matt Harvey | Mets | 2013 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 178.1 | 2.27 | 2.00 | 6.1 | 55 | 63 |
Click on table to enlarge. Click on column headings to sort.
Look where Matt Harvey was headed before his season ended--that's why I used his picture at the top of this post. These numbers also show just how dominant Clayton Kershaw was in 2013 despite going "only" 16-9. These seasons all have high strikeout rates and few home runs in common, and it's no coincidence the pitchers in this chart are recognized among the best in recent baseball history..
Neal's tweet got my attention because he unearthed one of the few seasons in which FIP- and ERA- went in different directions, and I'm always intrigued by outlier seasons of any kind. And it's always fun to mention Luis Tiant.
...
Thanks to Neal Kendrick of High Heat Stats for the idea and permission to run with it. All data courtesy of FanGraphs.
Scott Lindolm is a web columnist for 670 The Score in Chicago. Follow him on Twitter @ScottLindholm.