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Taking a look at 2014 pre-season prospect rankings

Commenters always complain about their favorite player missing from a prospect list or being ranked too low. How does this actually stack up when comparing different lists?

By Chris St. John
Dominic Smith had the most varied spots in prospect rankings this year.
Dominic Smith had the most varied spots in prospect rankings this year.
Jim McIsaac

What follows is a thorough analysis of my consensus top 160 prospects. I have done this in 2011, 2012, and 2013 and have always received extremely positive reviews of it, so here we are for a fourth time!

Regular Lists

Baseball America

Baseball Haven

Baseball Prospectus

Bleacher Report

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

John Sickels (Minor League Ball) (I used Sickels' end of season update list as he has yet to put out an offseason one.)

Keith Law (ESPN)

Major League Baseball (Jonathan Mayo)

MLB Draft Insider

MLB Prospect Guide (I only took the top 100 from this top 300 list)

Prospect Digest

Scout

Fantasy Lists

CBS Sports

David Gonos

Deep Leagues

Dynasty Sports Empire

Fantasy Assembly

Fantasy Squads

Prospect 361

Rotoanalysis

2104 Consensus Top 160 Prospects

 It's time to see how top prospects fared when comparing 20 different top prospect lists. Who is high, and who is low?

Definitions

Likes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations below the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least six lists to qualify.

Dislikes: The list places a prospect at least two standard deviations above the consensus ranking. A prospect must be on at least six lists to qualify.

Surprising Inclusion: The list includes a prospect ranked better than 80 which is only included on at most three lists.

Surprising Exclusion: The list does not include a prospect that is ranked anywhere on at least six other lists. For John Sickels this includes players only in the top 76 consensus. For CBS Sports, David Gonos, and Dynasty Sports Empire, this includes players only in the top 50 consensus.

Consensus Rank: To determine overall rank, I gave each player a certain total depending where he was ranked on each list. a #1 ranking equals 150 points and a 150 ranking equals 1 point. These are all added together and the prospect with the highest total is ranked first.

Regular Lists

BA BH BP BR FG JS KL MLB MLBDI MLBPP PD SC
Likes 6 9 7 4 7 5 5 11 7 8 9 7
Dislikes 3 2 3 0 2 3 1 3 3 9 7 1
Inclusions 1 3 4 1 1 2 0 1 5 5 11 3
Exclusions 5 5 4 2 0 7 2 5 5 10 3 1
All Excursions 15 19 18 7 10 17 8 20 20 32 30 12

Fantasy Lists

CBS DG DL DSE FA FS P361 RA
Likes 1 1 0 1 1 2 4 4
Dislikes 5 1 2 2 3 0 1 3
Inclusions 2 0 7 1 6 2 1 5
Exclusions 10 4 2 10 2 0 2 2
All Excursions 18 6 11 14 12 4 8 14


Baseball America

Ranking Philosophy:

Over the years we have streamlined the process, starting with top 150 lists from all participating editors to develop a consensus list.We then get together to massage it, moving around players who look out of place, trying to maintain as much consistency as possible with our previous lists, and moving up players who are just off the list and choosing which players to squeeze out.

Likes:

Name BA Con. Rank SD
Nick Kingham 64 87 3.58
Joey Gallo 60 103 2.90
Jimmy Nelson 96 115 2.59
Edwin Escobar 56 102 2.52
Trey Ball 89 107 2.31
Jorge Bonifacio 90 101 2.05

Dislikes:

Name BA Con. Rank SD
Zach Lee 95 70 -2.28
Arismendy Alcantara 100 71 -2.03
Garin Cecchini 74 54 -2.03

Inclusions:

Name BA Lists
Hunter Renfroe 80 2

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
A.J. Cole 66 10
Hunter Harvey 68 8
Eddie Rosario 75 8
Miguel Almonte 79 8
Jonathan Schoop 88 8


Baseball Haven

Likes:

Name BH Con. Rank SD
Enny Romero 83 104 4.98
Trevor Bauer 68 96 3.46
Nick Williams 63 109 3.19
Sean Manaea 71 106 2.70
Phillip Ervin 58 91 2.38
Billy Hamilton 33 53 2.32
James Paxton 53 91 2.26
Hunter Harvey 28 68 2.21
Jimmy Nelson 100 115 2.05

Dislikes:

Name BH Con. Rank SD
Maikel Franco 90 41 -2.22
Kris Bryant 25 12 -2.15

Inclusions:

Name BH Lists
Alberto Tirado 77 3
Bubba Starling 62 2
Jesse Winker 65 1


Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Braden Shipley 69 8
Jesse Biddle 73 9
Stephen Piscotty 76 8
Matt Davidson 77 9
Christian Bethancourt 86 8


Baseball Prospectus

Ranking Philosophy:

Our prospect-based Socratic method is the tool that sculpts our results, a lengthy internal debate that weighs the merits and tool-based misfortunes of those we are tasked with studying and sorting. The names are chiseled down into an appealing form, and then outside-the-organization sources are brought into the mix, where their opinions and reports are added to the representational body. Only after the fact are the relevant teams contacted for their thoughts on the list; an opportunity to extract developmental progressions and check the accuracy of the tool-based grades. The finished product is a combination of art and science, a fluid and evolving subject matter that is captured and frozen in the snapshot of a given moment and put on display.

Likes:

Name BP Con. Rank SD
Jose Berrios 75 113 4.07
Enny Romero 90 104 3.32
Luis Sardinas 72 112 2.86
Michael Choice 79 111 2.78
Josh Bell 77 100 2.48
Sean Manaea 78 106 2.16
Phillip Ervin 63 91 2.02

Dislikes:

Name BP Con. Rank SD
Austin Meadows 89 47 -2.28
Gregory Polanco 24 13 -2.16
Travis d'Arnaud 48 31 -2.07

Inclusions:

Name BP Lists
Josmil Pinto 56 2
Alex Gonzalez 70 3
Wilmer Flores 71 2
Alberto Tirado 76 3

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
J.P. Crawford 72 8
Alen Hanson 74 9
Rafael Montero 81 8
Jake Marisnick 83 8

Bleacher Report

Ranking Philosophy:

Various points for position players and pitchers, using firsthand scouting, video analysis, industry contacts, and statistics

Likes:

Name BR Con. Rank SD
Enny Romero 80 104 5.69
Sean Manaea 59 106 3.62
Pierce Johnson 76 99 2.56
Brian Goodwin 83 98 2.46

Dislikes: None

Inclusions:

Name BR Lists
Alex Gonzalez 58 3

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Jake Odorizzi 78 8
Christian Bethancourt 86 8

Fangraphs

Likes:

Name FG Con. Rank SD
Enny Romero 88 104 3.79
Justin Nicolino 63 108 3.65
Jorge Bonifacio 83 101 3.36
Jimmy Nelson 91 115 3.28
Pierce Johnson 77 99 2.45
Jose Berrios 93 113 2.14
Mookie Betts 59 84 2.07

Dislikes:

Name FG Con. Rank SD
Carlos Correa 9 4 -2.36
Erik Johnson 99 63 -2.25

Inclusions:

Name FG Lists
Vincent Velasquez 67 2

Exclusions: None



John Sickels (Minor League Ball)

Ranking Philosophy:

I try to find a balance between long-term upside, short-term potential, physical tools, and current skills.

Likes:

Name JS Con. Rank SD
Lance McCullers 44 90 2.79
Trevor Bauer 75 96 2.59
Phillip Ervin 58 91 2.38
Alen Hanson 52 74 2.34
Rafael Montero 51 81 2.04

Dislikes:

Name JS Con. Rank SD
Oscar Taveras 10 3 -3.23
Austin Hedges 60 29 -2.56
Raul Mondesi 63 36 -2.02

Inclusions:

Name JS Lists
Anthony Ranaudo 59 2
Clayton Blackburn 70 2

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Jorge Alfaro 56 10
Eduardo Rodriguez 61 10
Chris Owings 64 10
David Dahl 65 10
Blake Swihart 66 10
Hunter Harvey 68 8
Braden Shipley 69 8

Keith Law (ESPN)

Ranking Philosophy:

When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplementing with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context. I've made one adjustment in my ranking philosophy in recent years, favoring higher-upside prospects over lower-ceiling prospects who are closer to the majors. This better reflects how these players are valued now by front offices and scouting departments, and gives me a chance to deliver more information on prospects whose names or scouting reports might be new to you.

Likes:

Name KL Con. Rank SD
Eddie Rosario 49 75 2.56
Rosell Herrera 54 95 2.48
Brian Goodwin 83 98 2.46
Braden Shipley 25 69 2.38
Nick Kingham 73 87 2.18

Dislikes:

Name KL Con. Rank SD
Dylan Bundy 31 17 -2.89

Inclusions: None

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Jake Odorizzi 78 8
D.J. Peterson 80 8

Major League Baseball

Likes:

Name MLB Con. Rank SD
Jimmy Nelson 83 115 4.37
Michael Choice 72 111 3.38
Trevor Bauer 73 96 2.84
Josh Bell 74 100 2.81
Luis Sardinas 76 112 2.58
Jose Berrios 90 113 2.47
Jake Odorizzi 56 78 2.40
Delino DeShields 66 105 2.35
Lance McCullers 52 90 2.30
Allen Webster 46 94 2.24
Justin Nicolino 81 108 2.19

Dislikes:

Name MLB Con. Rank SD
Matt Wisler 78 42 -2.80
Lucas Giolito 44 19 -2.49
Kevin Gausman 31 16 -2.03

Inclusions:

Name MLB Lists
Mason Williams 75 3

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Hunter Harvey 68 8
J.P. Crawford 72 8
Eddie Rosario 75 8
Miguel Almonte 79 8
Jonathan Schoop 88 8

MLB Draft Insider

Likes:

Name MLBDI Con. Rank SD
Enny Romero 82 104 5.21
Brian Goodwin 78 98 3.29
Nick Kingham 66 87 3.27
Delino DeShields 56 105 2.96
J.P. Crawford 34 72 2.56
Taylor Guerrieri 48 97 2.40
Hunter Harvey 31 68 2.04

Dislikes:

Name MLBDI Con. Rank SD
Yordano Ventura 62 30 -2.32
Joc Pederson 75 45 -2.20
Mike Foltynewicz 81 55 -2.13

Inclusions:

Name MLBDI Lists
Mason Williams 61 3
Bubba Starling 65 2
Alex Colome 73 3
Tyler Austin 77 2
Slade Heathcott 79 1

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Rougned Odor 52 10
Jesse Biddle 73 9
Jake Odorizzi 78 8
D.J. Peterson 80 8
Rafael Montero 81 8

MLB Prospect Guide

Likes:

Name MLBPG Con. Rank SD
Xander Bogaerts 1 2 2.95
Hak-Ju Lee 54 93 2.95
Rob Kaminsky 46 110 2.50
Justin Nicolino 79 108 2.35
Matt Barnes 50 89 2.31
Trevor Bauer 78 96 2.22
Jorge Alfaro 32 56 2.08
A.J. Cole 29 66 2.04

Dislikes:

Name MLBPG Con. Rank SD
Byron Buxton 2 1 -3.32
George Springer 44 19 -2.90
Andrew Heaney 59 34 -2.86
Kyle Zimmer 70 24 -2.74
Aaron Sanchez 97 38 -2.60
Corey Seager 67 32 -2.54
Jameson Taillon 48 23 -2.48
Kyle Crick 100 49 -2.34
Noah Syndergaard 26 15 -2.00

Inclusions:

Name MLBPG Lists
Wilmer Flores 40 2
Dan Vogelbach 45 2
Manny Banuelos 57 1
Josmil Pinto 68 2
Justin Williams 76 1

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Billy Hamilton 53 10
Braden Shipley 69 8
Zach Lee 70 10
Arismendy Alcantara 71 10
J.P. Crawford 72 8
Alen Hanson 74 9
Eddie Rosario 75 8
Stephen Piscotty 76 8
Miguel Almonte 79 8
Rafael Montero 81 8


Prospect Digest

Likes:

Name PD Con. Rank SD
Garin Cecchini 31 53 3.43
Henry Owens 24 54 2.63
Corey Seager 23 45 2.53
Zach Lee 61 90 2.45
Marcus Stroman 26 55 2.27
Tyler Glasnow 13 49 2.24
Mookie Betts 39 78 2.15
C.J. Edwards 29 70 2.13
Matt Wisler 19 50 2.12

Dislikes:

Name PD Con. Rank SD
Jorge Soler 80 26 -2.99
Jonathan Singleton 65 30 -2.73
Andrew Heaney 82 42 -2.45
Gregory Polanco 52 20 -2.35
George Springer 28 11 -2.18
Billy Hamilton 97 32 -2.10
Arismendy Alcantara 96 61 -2.05

Inclusions:

Name PD Lists
Gregory Bird 34 1
Edwin Escobar 36 1
Clayton Blackburn 51 3
Jesse Winker 56 2
Jake Thompson 57 2
Marcus Semien 60 1
Eduardo Rodriguez 62 3
Luke Jackson 69 1
Nick Williams 70 3
Domingo Santana 73 1
Tyler Austin 79 1

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Max Fried 56 6
Rafael Montero 63 6
James Paxton 65 6

Scout

Likes:

Name SC Con. Rank SD
Trey Ball 81 107 3.34
Nick Kingham 72 87 2.33
Reese McGuire 50 85 2.24
James Paxton 56 91 2.08
Taylor Guerrieri 55 97 2.06
Christian Bethancourt 66 86 2.01

Dislikes:

Name SC Con. Rank SD
Javier Baez 13 6 -2.67

Inclusions:

Name SC Lists
Carlos Sanchez 46 1
Hunter Dozier 68 2
Dan Vogelbach 80 2

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Jake Marisnick 83 8

CBS Sports

Ranking Philosophy:

This [list] emphasizes proximity [but that] doesn't mean it's the only factor under consideration. A prospects list should include (duh) the top prospects, even if they're not in the order you're used to seeing them.

Likes:

Name CBS Con. Rank SD
Matt Davidson 48 91 2.24

Dislikes:

Name CBS Con. Rank SD
Byron Buxton 9 1 -3.00
Oscar Taveras 7 3 -2.70
Addison Russell 16 9 -2.47
Yordano Ventura 49 24 -2.10
Francisco Lindor 25 15 -2.02

Inclusions:

Name CBS Lists
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez 41 2
Michael Choice 47 3

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Aaron Sanchez 37 8
Alex Meyer 38 8
Kyle Crick 39 8
Austin Hedges 40 8
Albert Almora 44 7
Corey Seager 45 7
Julio Urias 46 7
Raul Mondesi 47 7
Tyler Glasnow 49 7
Matt Wisler 50 7

David Gonos

Ranking Philosophy:

It is a solid list of players who will have an impact in the next season or two. Only a few players projected to arrive after 2015 are in there, and I still deem them valuable — or draft-able — in dynasty/keeper leagues, simply because of their cheap value.

Likes:

Name DG Con. Rank SD
Miguel Almonte 50 74 2.24

Dislikes:

Name DG Con. Rank SD
Mark Appel 41 22 -2.62

Inclusions: None

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Travis d'Arnaud 29 8
Dylan Bundy 31 8
Kohl Stewart 48 7
Matt Wisler 50 7

Deep Leagues

Likes: None

Dislikes:

Name DL Con. Rank SD
Clint Frazier 59 27 -2.71
Kris Bryant 18 12 -2.02

Inclusions:

Name DL Lists
Anthony Ranaudo 45 2
Rosell Herrera 66 2
Eduardo Rodriguez 67 3
Trevor Bauer 68 2
Enny Romero 73 1
Delino DeShields 75 2
Christian Bethancourt 80 3

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Marcus Stroman 55 6
Allen Webster 72 6

Dynasty Sports Empire

Ranking Philosophy:

We’re forgetting about fielding ability and focusing on only the potential these young players have in 5×5 rotisserie baseball scoring.

Likes:

Name DSE Con. Rank SD
Alex Guerrero 30 79 2.20

Dislikes:

Name DSE Con. Rank SD
Oscar Taveras 7 3 -2.70
Carlos Correa 22 10 -2.15

Inclusions:

Name DSE Lists
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez 44 2

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Lucas Giolito 35 8
Rougned Odor 41 8
Andrew Heaney 42 8
Kolten Wong 43 8
Albert Almora 44 7
Corey Seager 45 7
Julio Urias 46 7
Raul Mondesi 47 7
Kohl Stewart 48 7
Tyler Glasnow 49 7

Fantasy Assembly

Likes:

Name FA Con. Rank SD
Dominic Smith 61 94 2.00

Dislikes:

Name FA Con. Rank SD
Jackie Bradley 89 36 -2.77
Joc Pederson 81 34 -2.37
Jameson Taillon 22 13 -2.05

Inclusions:

Name FA Lists
Nick Williams 64 3
Hak-Ju Lee 68 2
Amed Rosario 74 1
Roberto Osuna 75 1
Raimel Tapia 79 2
Dan Vogelbach 80 2

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Jake Odorizzi 59 6
Erik Johnson 73 6

Fantasy Squads

Likes:

Name FS Con. Rank SD
Garin Cecchini 34 53 2.96
Jorge Alfaro 42 64 2.31

Dislikes: None

Inclusions:

Name FS Lists
Jesse Winker 65 2
Clayton Blackburn 77 3

Exclusions: None


Prospect 361

Likes:

Name P361 Con. Rank SD
Alen Hanson 42 68 2.75
Eddie Rosario 54 80 2.20
Max Fried 39 56 2.14
Garin Cecchini 40 53 2.03

Dislikes:

Name P361 Con. Rank SD
Miguel Sano 12 6 -2.12

Inclusions:

Name P361 Lists
Henry Urrutia 73 1

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Jake Odorizzi 59 6
Colin Moran 60 6

Rotoanalysis

Ranking Philosophy:

In the rankings, I want to stress that the focus is on the ceilings and risks rather than the individual ranks.

Likes:

Name RA Con. Rank SD
Garin Cecchini 31 53 3.43
Matt Barnes 64 93 2.26
Dylan Bundy 8 31 2.23
Brian Goodwin 44 88 2.13

Dislikes:

Name RA Con. Rank SD
Carlos Martinez 66 25 -3.21
Xander Bogaerts 7 2 -2.58
Kyle Crick 57 39 -2.05

Inclusions:

Name RA Lists
Rymer Liriano 50 2
Danny Hultzen 68 2
Delino DeShields 69 2
Rosell Herrera 73 2
Justin Nicolino 74 1

Exclusions:

Name Con. Rank Lists
Billy Hamilton 32 8
Henry Owens 54 6

. . .

Chris St. John is a writer at Beyond The Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @stealofhome.

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