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If you are strong and fighting the weak, then if you kill your opponent then you are a scoundrel... if you let him kill you, then you are an idiot.
While van Creveld was discussing a more serious topic (The Israeli-Palestine crises) than baseball, the quote still brings up an illustrative point about baseball: Pitchers will be judged at least in part on the quality their opponents. Dominate a team full of AAAA players and you will not necessarily reap the respect of others. Get beat down by the '27 Yankees, you'll leave people saying that you didn't do bad considering the opposing lineup.
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What does this mean? It means we need to account for opponent in pitching statistics. A year ago, I went this route by creating a couple of statistics: opponent adjusted run average (oaRA, an RA9-type stat), and opponent adjusted FIP (oaFIP). From the oaFIP, I was able to calculate an oa-fWAR, allowing comparisons with the regular FIP and fWAR.
With the 2014 regular season having come to a close, now seems as good of a time to output the leaderboards for these statistics. I will not go through the entire derivation oaFIP and oaRA as they are covered in the two articles linked above. Added to the leaderboard this year is oaRA-WAR, which is the WAR version of OARA, similar to RA9-WAR. Also included is FIP, fWAR, RA9, and RA9-WAR, or the statistics that are essentially being opponent adjusted.
Before giving the leaderboard for qualified pitchers, I want to explain one item. Just because a pitcher's opponents have appeared to be easier than a different pitcher's does not mean that they'll receive the benefit of opponent adjustment. A major component is how you perform against these opponents. For example, look at the two pitcher lines below.
| Pitcher A | Pitcher B | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp R/G | RA | Opp R/G | RA |
| 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 3.5 | 2 | 4.5 | 5 |
| 4.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 1.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 3.5 (AVG) | 16 | 3.5 (AVG) | 16 |
Two pitchers, identical opponent R/G, identical runs allowed, and assume identical innings pitched. However, Pitcher A will have a higher oaRA than Pitcher B. Why? Because against a team that struggles scoring (At 1.5 R/G) he allowed a big runs total. And while he performs better than expected against another team to make up for it (Against the 2.5 R/G team), it won't be enough in the oaRA adjustment.
2014 Opponent Adjusted Leaderboards
But enough of explanations. On to the leaderboards. To be included on the leaderboard, the pitchers must meet the FanGraphs level of IP for qualification.
| Name | IP | oaRA | oaRA9-WAR | RA9 | RA9-WAR | oaFIP | oa-fWAR | FIP | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 198.33 | 1.86 | 7.9 | 1.91 | 7.9 | 2.12 | 6.5 | 1.81 | 7.2 |
| Corey Kluber | 235.67 | 2.60 | 7.0 | 2.75 | 7.0 | 2.66 | 5.9 | 2.35 | 7.3 |
| David Price | 248.33 | 4.43 | 1.3 | 3.62 | 4.3 | 2.87 | 5.4 | 2.78 | 6.1 |
| Felix Hernandez | 236.00 | 2.46 | 7.5 | 2.59 | 7.5 | 3.00 | 4.7 | 2.56 | 6.2 |
| Max Scherzer | 220.33 | 2.94 | 5.6 | 3.27 | 5.3 | 3.00 | 4.6 | 2.85 | 5.6 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 215.00 | 4.20 | 1.5 | 3.60 | 3.5 | 2.89 | 4.6 | 2.94 | 4.3 |
| Phil Hughes | 209.67 | 3.82 | 2.8 | 3.78 | 3.6 | 2.93 | 4.5 | 2.65 | 6.1 |
| Chris Sale | 174.00 | 2.44 | 5.8 | 2.48 | 6.2 | 2.81 | 4.3 | 2.57 | 5.4 |
| Jon Lester | 219.67 | 2.94 | 5.6 | 3.11 | 5.8 | 3.15 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 6.1 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 199.67 | 3.19 | 4.0 | 3.02 | 4.8 | 2.99 | 4.0 | 2.68 | 5.2 |
| Jose Quintana | 200.33 | 3.92 | 2.6 | 3.91 | 3.4 | 3.10 | 4.0 | 2.81 | 5.3 |
| Zack Greinke | 202.33 | 3.24 | 3.7 | 3.07 | 4.4 | 2.91 | 4.0 | 2.97 | 3.8 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 219.67 | 4.18 | 1.7 | 3.52 | 4.1 | 3.14 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Garrett Richards | 168.67 | 3.42 | 3.2 | 2.72 | 4.9 | 3.04 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.3 |
| Johnny Cueto | 243.67 | 2.44 | 7.6 | 2.55 | 7.7 | 3.43 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 217.33 | 3.32 | 3.6 | 3.35 | 3.5 | 3.20 | 3.3 | 3.05 | 3.6 |
| Brandon McCarthy | 200.00 | 4.70 | 0.5 | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3.40 | 3.0 | 3.55 | 3.0 |
| Adam Wainwright | 227.00 | 1.99 | 8.6 | 2.54 | 6.9 | 3.44 | 2.9 | 2.88 | 4.5 |
| Cole Hamels | 204.67 | 2.84 | 5.1 | 2.64 | 6.0 | 3.39 | 2.9 | 3.07 | 3.8 |
| Alex Wood | 171.67 | 3.06 | 3.7 | 3.04 | 3.9 | 3.27 | 2.7 | 3.25 | 2.5 |
| Scott Kazmir | 190.33 | 5.02 | -0.3 | 3.83 | 2.8 | 3.39 | 2.7 | 3.35 | 3.3 |
| Ian Kennedy | 201.00 | 3.86 | 1.9 | 3.81 | 2.1 | 3.38 | 2.6 | 3.21 | 2.9 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 179.00 | 3.75 | 2.4 | 3.52 | 3.3 | 3.40 | 2.5 | 3.25 | 3.2 |
| Tyson Ross | 195.67 | 3.49 | 2.8 | 3.45 | 3.0 | 3.37 | 2.5 | 3.24 | 2.6 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 200.00 | 3.26 | 4.2 | 3.20 | 4.9 | 3.59 | 2.4 | 3.21 | 3.9 |
| James Shields | 227.00 | 3.56 | 3.8 | 3.77 | 3.9 | 3.69 | 2.4 | 3.59 | 3.7 |
| Alex Cobb | 166.33 | 2.60 | 4.8 | 3.03 | 4.0 | 3.43 | 2.2 | 3.23 | 2.7 |
| Bartolo Colon | 202.33 | 5.08 | -1.0 | 4.31 | 0.9 | 3.54 | 2.2 | 3.57 | 2.1 |
| Christopher Archer | 194.67 | 4.55 | 0.6 | 3.93 | 2.4 | 3.48 | 2.1 | 3.39 | 3.1 |
| Tanner Roark | 198.67 | 2.99 | 4.5 | 2.90 | 5.1 | 3.64 | 2.1 | 3.47 | 3.0 |
| Drew Hutchison | 184.67 | 5.28 | -0.6 | 4.48 | 1.8 | 3.73 | 2.0 | 3.85 | 2.6 |
| Ervin Santana | 196.00 | 4.28 | 1.1 | 4.13 | 1.8 | 3.65 | 2.0 | 3.39 | 2.8 |
| Lance Lynn | 203.67 | 3.52 | 3.1 | 3.18 | 4.3 | 3.66 | 2.0 | 3.35 | 3.1 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 199.00 | 4.10 | 2.1 | 4.12 | 2.8 | 3.81 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| John Lackey | 198.00 | 5.00 | -0.1 | 4.27 | 2.2 | 3.79 | 1.9 | 3.78 | 2.8 |
| Julio Teheran | 221.00 | 3.32 | 4.0 | 3.34 | 4.3 | 3.76 | 1.9 | 3.49 | 3.2 |
| Rick Porcello | 204.67 | 5.00 | 0.0 | 3.91 | 3.3 | 3.81 | 1.9 | 3.67 | 3.1 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 168.00 | 5.30 | -0.9 | 4.23 | 1.4 | 3.61 | 1.8 | 3.75 | 2.0 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 199.67 | 5.12 | -1.0 | 4.82 | 0.3 | 3.67 | 1.8 | 3.37 | 3.0 |
| Sonny Gray | 219.00 | 3.58 | 3.4 | 3.45 | 4.3 | 3.80 | 1.8 | 3.46 | 3.3 |
| Justin Verlander | 206.00 | 4.75 | 0.6 | 4.98 | 0.8 | 3.92 | 1.7 | 3.74 | 3.3 |
| Yordano Ventura | 183.00 | 3.54 | 3.1 | 3.44 | 3.9 | 3.80 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Wade Miley | 201.33 | 5.00 | -0.3 | 4.60 | 1.2 | 3.91 | 1.6 | 3.98 | 1.7 |
| Clay Buchholz | 170.33 | 5.76 | -1.3 | 5.71 | -0.5 | 3.92 | 1.5 | 4.01 | 2.2 |
| Francisco Liriano | 162.33 | 4.33 | 0.7 | 3.77 | 2.0 | 3.69 | 1.5 | 3.59 | 1.6 |
| Matt Garza | 163.33 | 4.38 | 0.9 | 4.24 | 1.6 | 3.80 | 1.5 | 3.54 | 2.5 |
| Jason Vargas | 187.00 | 4.15 | 1.7 | 3.95 | 2.8 | 3.91 | 1.4 | 3.84 | 2.6 |
| Dan Haren | 186.00 | 5.03 | -0.8 | 4.89 | -0.3 | 3.80 | 1.3 | 4.09 | 1.0 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | 184.33 | 4.50 | 1.4 | 4.39 | 2.6 | 4.25 | 1.3 | 4.34 | 2.1 |
| Aaron Harang | 204.33 | 4.78 | -0.1 | 3.88 | 2.5 | 3.97 | 1.2 | 3.57 | 2.5 |
| Josh Collmenter | 179.33 | 4.08 | 1.7 | 3.76 | 2.8 | 4.00 | 1.2 | 3.87 | 2.0 |
| Mark Buehrle | 202.00 | 3.98 | 2.4 | 3.70 | 3.9 | 4.10 | 1.2 | 3.66 | 3.5 |
| Roenis Elias | 163.67 | 4.53 | 0.6 | 4.23 | 1.6 | 3.86 | 1.2 | 4.03 | 1.4 |
| Jason Hammel | 176.33 | 4.29 | 1.1 | 3.57 | 3.1 | 3.98 | 1.1 | 3.92 | 1.7 |
| Eric Stults | 176.00 | 4.91 | -0.6 | 4.76 | -0.2 | 4.80 | 1.0 | 4.63 | -0.6 |
| Hector Noesi | 172.33 | 4.47 | 1.1 | 5.12 | 0.5 | 5.06 | 1.0 | 4.83 | 0.5 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 185.67 | 3.93 | 2.3 | 3.73 | 3.4 | 4.12 | 1.0 | 3.89 | 2.6 |
| Wily Peralta | 198.67 | 4.88 | -0.1 | 3.99 | 2.5 | 4.12 | 1.0 | 4.11 | 1.5 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 192.33 | 4.93 | -0.2 | 4.02 | 2.3 | 4.11 | 1.0 | 3.94 | 1.7 |
| Zach Wheeler | 185.33 | 4.76 | -0.2 | 4.08 | 1.4 | 3.95 | 1.0 | 3.55 | 1.8 |
| Henderson Alvarez | 187.00 | 2.97 | 4.2 | 3.13 | 4.2 | 3.99 | 0.9 | 3.58 | 2.2 |
| Kyle Gibson | 179.33 | 5.54 | -1.1 | 4.57 | 1.4 | 4.13 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Kyle Kendrick | 199.00 | 4.93 | -0.3 | 4.88 | 0.1 | 4.83 | 0.9 | 4.57 | 0.4 |
| Roberto Hernandez | 164.67 | 4.62 | 0.2 | 4.59 | 0.6 | 4.88 | 0.9 | 4.85 | -0.5 |
| Tim Hudson | 189.33 | 4.76 | -0.3 | 4.09 | 1.2 | 3.95 | 0.9 | 3.54 | 1.7 |
| Jonathon Niese | 187.67 | 4.09 | 1.3 | 3.84 | 2.0 | 4.04 | 0.8 | 3.67 | 1.6 |
| Scott Feldman | 180.33 | 5.16 | -0.4 | 4.29 | 1.9 | 4.16 | 0.8 | 4.11 | 1.6 |
| Douglas Fister | 164.00 | 2.84 | 4.1 | 2.85 | 4.3 | 4.14 | 0.7 | 3.93 | 1.3 |
| Jake Peavy | 202.67 | 4.08 | 1.9 | 4.04 | 2.7 | 4.23 | 0.7 | 4.11 | 1.9 |
| John Danks | 193.67 | 5.44 | -0.8 | 4.93 | 1.0 | 4.92 | 0.7 | 4.76 | 0.8 |
| Kyle Lohse | 198.33 | 4.90 | -0.1 | 3.95 | 2.6 | 4.26 | 0.7 | 3.95 | 2.0 |
| Mike Leake | 214.33 | 4.09 | 1.8 | 3.91 | 2.8 | 4.21 | 0.7 | 3.88 | 1.8 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 184.67 | 4.51 | 0.2 | 4.19 | 0.9 | 4.00 | 0.7 | 3.85 | 1.0 |
| R.A. Dickey | 215.67 | 4.20 | 2.0 | 4.21 | 2.8 | 4.37 | 0.6 | 4.32 | 2.1 |
| Bud Norris | 165.33 | 3.78 | 2.4 | 3.70 | 3.1 | 4.31 | 0.5 | 4.22 | 1.5 |
| Jarred Cosart | 180.33 | 4.41 | 1.0 | 3.99 | 2.5 | 4.25 | 0.5 | 3.77 | 2.1 |
| Tom Koehler | 191.33 | 4.35 | 0.8 | 3.95 | 2.3 | 4.16 | 0.5 | 3.84 | 1.8 |
| Chris Tillman | 207.33 | 4.59 | 0.9 | 3.60 | 4.1 | 4.40 | 0.4 | 4.01 | 2.4 |
| Chris Young | 165.00 | 4.62 | 0.5 | 3.82 | 2.4 | 4.66 | 0.3 | 5.02 | 0.2 |
| Shelby Miller | 183.00 | 3.82 | 2.0 | 3.84 | 2.2 | 4.55 | 0.3 | 4.54 | 0.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 213.67 | 5.47 | -1.6 | 5.14 | -0.5 | 4.40 | 0.2 | 4.14 | 1.0 |
| Colby Lewis | 170.33 | 5.20 | -0.2 | 5.65 | -0.2 | 4.74 | 0.2 | 4.46 | 1.6 |
| Jered Weaver | 213.33 | 3.72 | 3.2 | 3.67 | 3.3 | 4.44 | 0.2 | 4.19 | 1.5 |
| Travis Wood | 173.67 | 5.71 | -1.7 | 5.70 | -1.2 | 4.40 | 0.2 | 4.38 | 1.0 |
| Alfredo Simon | 196.33 | 3.94 | 2.0 | 3.67 | 3.1 | 4.48 | 0.0 | 4.33 | 0.9 |
| C.J. Wilson | 175.67 | 4.88 | 0.1 | 4.87 | 0.2 | 4.52 | 0.0 | 4.31 | 0.6 |
| Edinson Volquez | 192.67 | 4.20 | 1.2 | 3.50 | 3.0 | 4.39 | 0.0 | 4.15 | 0.7 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 202.67 | 5.09 | -0.3 | 4.44 | 1.9 | 4.51 | 0.0 | 4.32 | 1.5 |
There's little surprise that Clayton Kershaw still dominates the discussion. He leads in both oaRA and oaFIP by large margins. I could keep talking about him, by that would be purely superfluous.
. . .
Data courtesy of FanGraphs and MLB Advanced Media.
Stephen Loftus is an editor at Beyond The Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @stephen__loftus.