Jose Fernandez is just scratching the surface

Only twenty-one years old and a season under his belt; Jose Fernandez has begun to make a name for himself. During his 2013 campaign, he dominated his way to an All Star appearance, National League Rookie of the Year, and came in 3^rd for Cy Young honors to top it all off. He isn't just hype either, from a numbers angle, Fernandez is explosive with his compiled 4.2 fWAR and 6.3 bWAR. All that in only 172.2 innings. To say the least, Fernandez had himself a stellar rookie season. But was 2013 his ceiling or his floor?

Let's first take a look at his pitch f/x data. I eliminated slider and cutter data because pitch f/x only recorded 6 and they were likely miscalculated curveballs.

Name	vFA (pfx)	FA% (pfx)	wFA/C (pfx)	vFT (pfx)	FT% (pfx)	wFT/C (pfx)	vCU (pfx)	CU% (pfx)	wCU/C (pfx)	vCH (pfx)	CH% (pfx)	wCH/C (pfx)
Jose Fernandez	94.8	53.20%	0.9	93.6	6.20%	1.69	81.7	33.60%	2.68	85.8	6.10%	1.33

As you can see, Fernandez has four above average pitches; the curveball being his best. In fact, his curveball is so good, it rates at 2.68 in wCU/C (pfx). To put that into context, his curveball ranks secondamong qualified starters, which is only a tick behind Clayton Kershaw's curveball at 2.73. Thus from a repertoire standpoint, we can conclude Fernandez certainly has the stuff to continue being a compelling pitcher.

However, stuff alone doesn't make a pitcher great, and Fernandez has shown he's more than pure stuff. Despite his young age, Fernandez is already years ahead of his competitors in commanding the zone. In zone percentage, Fernandez ranked sixth last year at 48.3%. He also ranked twenty-first in BB/9 at 3.02 and thirtieth in K/BB at 3.22. Finally, he was able to limit the long ball to the tune of a 7.1% HR/FB ratio and 0.52 HR/9, good for ninth and twenty-first respectively among qualified pitchers. Taking all this into account, it adds up for a fantastic recipe for success going forward.

Yet, this assumes Fernandez remains static. But, due to his youth, time is on his side, and it's not inconceivable to suggest he can further improve himself. How much remains the question. What does history suggest about players with similar skills as Fernandez?

Using Fangraphs leaderboards & filters, I searched individual seasons, went back as far as 1920 to filter for qualified starters whom had a K% greater than or equal to 27% and BB% less than or equal to 9%.

Season	Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	FIP
2002	Curt Schilling	Diamondbacks	10.97	1.15	9.55	0.98	31.20%	3.30%	2.35
2000	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	11.78	1.33	8.88	0.71	34.80%	3.90%	2.17
1999	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	13.22	1.56	8.5	0.35	37.50%	4.40%	1.33
2004	Ben Sheets	Brewers	10.03	1.22	8.25	0.95	28.20%	3.40%	2.65
2001	Curt Schilling	Diamondbacks	10.27	1.37	7.51	1.3	28.70%	3.80%	3.11
2004	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	10.62	1.61	6.59	0.66	30.10%	4.60%	2.3
2013	Matt Harvey	Mets	9.64	1.56	6.16	0.35	27.70%	4.50%	2
2003	Curt Schilling	Diamondbacks	10.39	1.71	6.06	0.91	28.80%	4.80%	2.66
2002	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	10.79	1.81	5.98	0.59	30.40%	5.10%	2.24
1997	Curt Schilling	Phillies	11.29	2.05	5.5	0.88	31.60%	5.80%	2.62
2009	Javier Vazquez	Braves	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	27.20%	5.00%	2.77
1965	Sandy Koufax	Dodgers	10.24	1.9	5.38	0.7	29.50%	5.50%	1.93
1999	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	12.06	2.32	5.2	0.99	33.70%	6.50%	2.76
2001	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	13.2	2.6	5.09	0.7	36.70%	7.20%	2.22
1996	John Smoltz	Braves	9.79	1.95	5.02	0.67	27.70%	5.50%	2.64
1998	Curt Schilling	Phillies	10.05	2.04	4.92	0.77	27.60%	5.60%	2.77
2004	Johan Santana	Twins	10.46	2.13	4.91	0.95	30.10%	6.10%	2.92
2003	Mark Prior	Cubs	10.43	2.13	4.9	0.64	28.40%	5.80%	2.47
2002	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	11.56	2.46	4.7	0.9	32.30%	6.90%	2.66
1988	Roger Clemens	Red Sox	9.92	2.11	4.69	0.58	27.40%	5.80%	2.17
2011	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	9.57	2.08	4.59	0.58	27.20%	5.90%	2.47
2000	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	12.56	2.75	4.57	0.83	34.70%	7.60%	2.53
1997	Pedro Martinez	Expos	11.37	2.5	4.55	0.6	32.20%	7.10%	2.39
1995	Randy Johnson	Mariners	12.35	2.73	4.52	0.5	34.00%	7.50%	2.08
2011	Zack Greinke	Brewers	10.54	2.36	4.47	1	28.10%	6.30%	2.98
2003	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	9.93	2.27	4.38	0.34	27.50%	6.30%	2.21
1997	Roger Clemens	Blue Jays	9.95	2.32	4.29	0.31	28.00%	6.50%	2.25
2013	Max Scherzer	Tigers	10.08	2.35	4.29	0.76	28.70%	6.70%	2.74
2009	Justin Verlander	Tigers	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	27.40%	6.40%	2.8
1986	Mike Scott	Astros	10	2.35	4.25	0.56	28.70%	6.80%	2.16
2007	Erik Bedard	Orioles	10.93	2.82	3.88	0.94	30.20%	7.80%	3.19
2012	Max Scherzer	Tigers	11.08	2.88	3.85	1.1	29.40%	7.60%	3.27
2009	Tim Lincecum	Giants	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	28.80%	7.50%	2.34
1998	Randy Johnson	- - -	12.12	3.17	3.83	0.85	32.50%	8.50%	2.9
1962	Sandy Koufax	Dodgers	10.55	2.78	3.79	0.63	29.00%	7.70%	2.15
1984	Dwight Gooden	Mets	11.39	3.01	3.78	0.29	31.40%	8.30%	1.69
2013	Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	9.99	2.67	3.74	0.45	27.10%	7.20%	2.39
1990	David Cone	Mets	9.91	2.73	3.63	0.9	27.10%	7.50%	2.83
2008	Tim Lincecum	Giants	10.53	3.23	3.26	0.44	28.70%	8.80%	2.59
2004	Jason Schmidt	Giants	10.04	3.08	3.26	0.72	27.70%	8.50%	2.92
2013	Jose Fernandez	Marlins	9.75	3.02	3.22	0.52	27.50%	8.50%	2.73

The results were impressive to say the least and, if sorted by K/BB ratio, we see Fernandez ranks last. However, that shouldn't be taken as an insult, but rather a compliment. To even be in the same discussion as these players is an honor, but at only age twenty is an extreme acclaim. Most of the list is comprised of players in their peak, not the beginning, like Fernandez. If Fernandez improves even slightly, he is a perennial Cy Young candidate year in and out.

Although a slight improvement might be underselling Jose. As the 2013 season went on, he sharpened his skills each month. If we look at his monthly splits, there's a clear trend.

Month	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%	FIP-	xFIP-	FIP	xFIP
April	8.63	4.13	2.09	0.75	22.60%	10.80%	0.277	68.50%	98	100	3.71	3.77
May	9.21	3.18	2.9	1.27	24.20%	8.30%	0.263	74.80%	106	93	4	3.52
June	8.91	3.06	2.91		25.60%	8.80%	0.232	76.70%	55	87	2.09	3.27
July	10.29	2.57	4	0.51	30.50%	7.60%	0.234	82.20%	67	69	2.53	2.61
August	11.31	2.54	4.45	0.23	32.50%	7.30%	0.236	85.90%	47	62	1.79	2.33
September	9	3.21	2.8	0.64	26.90%	9.60%	0.156	100.00%	80	103	3.05	3.88

Now let's further split his season into pre and post All Star break, there's significant improvement between the two.

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	BABIP	LOB%	FIP-	xFIP-	FIP	xFIP
Pre-ASB	8.86	3.44	2.58	0.6	24.30%	9.40%	0.244	75.60%	85	94	3.21	3.54
Post-ASB	11.12	2.38	4.67	0.4	32.70%	7.00%	0.232	87.10%	52	63	1.99	2.38

So I wondered, if the second half Fernandez could be the one going forward, what could his future hold? Using the same process as before I filtered for seasons with pitchers K% equal to or greater than 32% and BB% less than or equal to 7%.

Season	Name	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	FIP-	FIP
1999	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	13.2	1.56	8.46	0.38	37.50%	4.40%	30	1.39
2000	Pedro Martinez	Red Sox	11.78	1.33	8.88	0.71	34.80%	3.90%	46	2.17
2002	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	11.56	2.46	4.7	0.9	32.30%	6.90%	60	2.66
1999	Randy Johnson	Diamondbacks	12.06	2.32	5.2	0.99	33.70%	6.50%	58	2.76

The numbers speak for themselves. Flat out dominance. And again, this is when Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson were in their peaks. Pedro's season were at age 27 & 28 and Randy's at age 35 & 38. I can't emphasis it enough, Fernandez is only 21 years old. To say Jose might be the second coming of Martinez or Johnson could be a stretch, but the fact that's he's in the discussion at such a young age, is very special indeed.

Pitchers are fickle beings and far too often injuries derail prolific talent, I'm hoping Fernandez is not the case. Because there's a very real chance we might witnessing the start of a very promising career. Mike Trout took baseball by storm two years ago, but watch out folks, Jose Fernandez is not too far behind.

Jose Fernandez closed the book on his 2013 season with this pitch, it's only fitting I do the same with this article.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and GIF courtesy of Jen Mac Ramos @_jenmac.

Anthony Joshi-Pawlowic is a contributing writer at Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @AJP13237.